The Ilko Kucheriv Democratic Initiatives Foundation, Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) and the Oleksandr Razumkov Ukrainian Center for Economic and Political Research will host a National Exit Poll for early parliamentary elections scheduled for July 21. “The consortium of the above-named organizations will conduct a survey on July 21 outside polling stations. The main aim of the project is to provide effective public control over the honesty of the elections,” Democratic Initiatives Foundation said on Thursday.
At the Ukrinform news agency, at 19:45, on July 21 consortium members will release results of their exit poll as of 18:00, and at 22:00 will release updated results with information received as of 20:00.
The field research phase will be carried out by KIIS and the Razumkov Center. The general totality of exit polls comprises voters who voted at polling stations in Ukraine (except for special polling stations — hospitals, prisons, military units, foreign polling stations, and with the exception of the occupied territories). The sample will be representative for Ukraine as a whole and for its four regions (West, Center, East and South). The results of the survey will be presented on a nationwide scale and in the context of the four regions.
The number of polling stations is 300 (150 for each sociological company). The sample size is about 13,000 respondents (depending on voter turnout). The number of respondents at each site is approximately 43 respondents on average. Interviewers will have special badges with the National Exit Poll symbols.
The statistical error of the sample, taking into account the design effect does not exceed 1.3%, but there are still errors that depend on various factors. Based on the experience of previous exit polls conducted using the same methodology, sociologists suggest that the sampling error will not exceed 2.5% for leaders and will be within 0.5-1% for other parties.
The National Exit Poll at the parliamentary elections-2019 is carried out with the financial support from United States Agency for International Development (USAID), EU Representation in Ukraine, the Kyiv-based International Renaissance Foundation and Canadian Embassy in Ukraine.