Almost half (46%) of Ukraine’s population see the need for an early presidential election and just over half (54%), for early parliamentary elections this year, according to the findings of a poll conducted by the Ukrainian Institute of the Future (UIF) on January 27-February 5. Corruption was the most cited reason (49%) for such negative attitudes, and unprofessionalism was cited by 27% of respondents, according to the findings unveiled at an Interfax-Ukraine press conference on Thursday.
Respondents in the west tend to see corruption as the main obstacle to development; in the east, unprofessionalism and outside control are seen as the biggest problem. Asked where their country is heading to, 74% said “in the wrong direction” and only 14% said the opposite.
A survey of confidence in statesmen and politicians showed 48% distrusting current President Volodymyr Zelensky.
If a presidential election were to be held this Sunday, he would be favored by 18.4% of respondents. That is a drop from 29.2% in June 2020.
On the other hand, his possible rivals Petro Poroshenko and Yuriy Boiko would fare worse, with 11.4% and 9.5%, respectively.
President Zelensky’s disapproval rating also dropped since June 2020. When asked “Which candidate would you not vote for under any circumstances?” 17.8% said the incumbent; the figures for Poroshenko, Viktor Medvedchuk, Boiko and Yulia Tymoshenko were 24.8%, 10.3%, 9% and 6.5%, respectively.
At the same time, Zelensky remains the most trusted politician, with 12% trusting him fully.
Were a parliamentary election held this Sunday, 15.8% of all respondents would vote for the Opposition Platform – For Life, 13.1% for Servant of the People (a significant drop from 27.1% since last June), 11.8% for European Solidarity, and 8.6% for Batkyvschyna.
At the same time, a survey of disapproval ratings of the parliamentary parties found that under no circumstances would 22% vote for European Solidarity, 17.8% for Opposition Platform – For Life, and 15.6% for Servant of the People.
Data suggest that confidence in local authorities was higher overall than in the central government. A quarter (26%) of respondents said their local authorities represented the interests of the population; 35%, the interests of local elites, and 27%, the interests of big business. The highest level of confidence was in mayors, at 48%.
The most trusted institution is the army (53%), followed by mass media (34%) and national police (31%). The least trusted were anti-corruption agencies: National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine (NABU) and Specialized Anti-Corruption Prosecutor (SAPO), 10% each, and the Supreme Anti-Corruption Court (8%).
When asked “What could raise the efficiency of authority?” 39% were inclined for its full reset with young and competent people with no experience in politics but in other areas. A third (34%) wants to see a strong leader, 19% want the current central government to be reinforced with new professionals and 17%, with experienced professionals who were in government before.
The face-to-face survey of sociopolitical sentiments was conducted among 2,400 respondents aged 18 and older by the UIF in conjunction with New Image Marketing Group in every region (except the temporarily uncontrolled territories).
International markets positively responded to the results of early elections to the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine: eurobonds grew by 1 percentage point (p.p.), warrants by 2 p.p., up to 77.5% of the nominal value, Serhiy Fursa, a specialist for the sale of debt securities from Dragon Capital investment company, has told Interfax-Ukraine.
“International markets are responding positively, the price of all eurobonds is rising. GDP warrants, which rose by 3.3% to a historical maximum, showed the largest growth. It seems that the expectations of economic growth and hryvnia expectations among foreigners have increased,” Oleksandr Paraschiy, the head of the analytical department at Concorde Capital investment company, said.
According to him, Western investors like the idea of consolidating power in the same hands: at least, this means an end to political instability, and also gives a chance for quick pro-Western reforms. The analyst added that foreigners are not very afraid of the risk of usurpation of power: the situation when one political force forms a government looks familiar and acceptable for Western countries.
Parliamentary elections in Ukraine will not affect the hryvnia exchange rate, Governor of the National Bank of Ukraine Yakiv Smolii has said. “Double elections did indeed carry some risk expectations in the financial markets, but this absolutely did not affect the exchange rate in any way. It was formed by demand and supply and continues to do so now. The strengthening of the hryvnia was caused primarily by the factors of favorable conditions for our exports, as well as the inflow [of funds] of foreign investors in domestic government securities, which led to an increase in currency supply in the market and, consequently, to the strengthening of the hryvnia,” Smolii said at a press briefing.
Five Ukrainian parties are likely to overcome the 5% election threshold in the upcoming elections to the Verkhovna Rada, and two other parties also have chances to qualify for parliament, considering the margin of error, the Razumkov Center sociological service said in presenting the findings of a public opinion survey on Thursday. The poll of 2,018 respondents aged 18 and older, which Razumkov Center conducted in all regions of Ukraine on July 12 to 17, 2019, showed that 40.2% of all respondents and 44.4% of those who are determined to go to polling stations and have decided for whom to vote are planning to vote for the Servant of the People Party.
Another 12.1% (13.3%) said they would vote for Opposition Platform – For Life, 7.7% (8.5%) for Batkivschyna, 6.8% (7.5%) for European Solidarity, and 6.1% (6.8%) for Holos.
Taking into account the theoretical error margin of 2.3%, two more parties also have chances to be elected to the Rada, as 4.0% (4.5%) said they would vote for Power and Honor and 3.0% (3.3%) for Radical Party.
All other parties running in the elections are unlikely to garner more than 2.5% of votes given by those determined to go to polling stations.
At the same time, 9.5% of the respondents who said they would go to polling stations are still undecided about their preferences.
Another 8.2% of those polled said they would ignore the elections.
Servant of the People has the relatively largest number of supporters in the southern (56.4% of all respondents) and the central (37.8%) macro-regions of Ukraine.
The Opposition Platform – For Life party enjoys better support in the eastern (22.4%) and southern (13.3%) parts of the country.
Batkivschyna has the best chances in the central (10%) and western (7.4%) parts of the country.
European Solidarity should get 6.9% in the central and 8.9% in the western macro-regions.
Holos has the highest support in the western region (12.1%).
“The younger the respondents, the more likely they are going to vote for Servant of the People (the party is supported by 25.3% of those who are 60 or older and by 48.1% of young people aged from 18 to 29). The Holos party also has the highest percentage of support in the youngest age group (18-29 years). Electoral support for the Opposition Platform – For Life, Batkivschyna, and Power and Honor is more prominent among senior age groups,” the sociologists said.
The Ilko Kucheriv Democratic Initiatives Foundation, Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) and the Oleksandr Razumkov Ukrainian Center for Economic and Political Research will host a National Exit Poll for early parliamentary elections scheduled for July 21. “The consortium of the above-named organizations will conduct a survey on July 21 outside polling stations. The main aim of the project is to provide effective public control over the honesty of the elections,” Democratic Initiatives Foundation said on Thursday.
At the Ukrinform news agency, at 19:45, on July 21 consortium members will release results of their exit poll as of 18:00, and at 22:00 will release updated results with information received as of 20:00.
The field research phase will be carried out by KIIS and the Razumkov Center. The general totality of exit polls comprises voters who voted at polling stations in Ukraine (except for special polling stations — hospitals, prisons, military units, foreign polling stations, and with the exception of the occupied territories). The sample will be representative for Ukraine as a whole and for its four regions (West, Center, East and South). The results of the survey will be presented on a nationwide scale and in the context of the four regions.
The number of polling stations is 300 (150 for each sociological company). The sample size is about 13,000 respondents (depending on voter turnout). The number of respondents at each site is approximately 43 respondents on average. Interviewers will have special badges with the National Exit Poll symbols.
The statistical error of the sample, taking into account the design effect does not exceed 1.3%, but there are still errors that depend on various factors. Based on the experience of previous exit polls conducted using the same methodology, sociologists suggest that the sampling error will not exceed 2.5% for leaders and will be within 0.5-1% for other parties.
The National Exit Poll at the parliamentary elections-2019 is carried out with the financial support from United States Agency for International Development (USAID), EU Representation in Ukraine, the Kyiv-based International Renaissance Foundation and Canadian Embassy in Ukraine.