The YouTube channel of the Kiev analytical center “Club of Experts” has released a new video in which the founder of the project, PhD in Economics Maksim Urakin and the editor-in-chief of the “Ukraine in Arabic” portal Mohammad Farajallah forecast the results of the upcoming second round of presidential elections in Turkey and also analyzed possible developments after the end of the vote.
According to the experts, the incumbent president Recep Tayyip Erdogan has much more chances to win than his rival, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, the leader of the united opposition. This prediction is due both to the behavior of the top politicians themselves before and after the first round of elections, as well as the position of third-place winner Sinan Ogan, who has already expressed his support for Erdoğan with 5 percent of the vote.
“Erdoğan conducted his election campaign well by not engaging in open polemics with the opposition on earthquake relief, democracy development and the economic situation. Instead, he focused voters’ attention on the themes of security and the “dignity of the nation” as well as Islamic identity. In addition, the increase in wages and the cancellation of utility bills on the eve of the election also played a role “- says Mohammad Farajallah.
According to the expert, these actions also helped Erdoğan win over nationalist forces, whose single candidate, Sinan Oğan, openly supported the incumbent president on the eve of the second round.
“The opposition, on the contrary, started to behave rather nervously after the first round, which was mainly reflected in Kemal Kilicdaroglu’s aggressive rhetoric with regard to the Syrian refugees who received Turkish passports under the social programs initiated by Erdogan,” he stressed.
In his turn, Maksim Urakin noted that Turkish voters were generally disappointed by Kylicdaroglu’s rhetoric as they expected concrete programs of economic and political actions from the opposition alliance after the elections.
“No specifics were heard from the opposition regarding social support for youth, the older generation, support for entrepreneurs and normalization of the situation in the economy,” says Maxim Urakin.
In his opinion, expectations of Kılıçdaroğlu’s victory already in the first round were somewhat “overheated” by a number of opinion polls, which predicted this candidate a serious advantage over Erdoğan (up to 5-7%), but were subsequently not confirmed at the elections themselves.
At the same time, according to experts, there is still a serious split among Turks with regard to the policy of the current president, and Erdoğan, if he wins the elections, will have to work hard to consolidate society within a single national consensus.
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ELECTIONS, ERDOĞAN, EXPERTS_CLUB, MOHAMMAD_FORPJALLAH, TURKEY
