The survey, conducted by Active Group in cooperation with the Experts Club think tank, revealed citizens’ attitudes to various aspects of social and economic life in Ukraine, including the initiative to refund part of the cost of Ukrainian goods, the government’s influence on business, the level of trust in law enforcement, financial stability of citizens, and forecasts for the hryvnia exchange rate.
A significant proportion of respondents (44%) have heard of the initiative to refund the cost of purchasing Ukrainian goods, with opinions divided on its impact on living standards. Most respondents believe that the government will increase taxes to finance this initiative.
According to Andriy Yeremenko, founder of the sociological research company Active Group, this raises concerns among the population, as most are not ready for an increase in the fiscal burden.
The study also revealed a deep distrust of government institutions (57% of citizens) and law enforcement agencies (62%) in the context of relations with business, in particular due to the lack of transparency and efficiency of their work. The majority of respondents believe that the state hinders rather than helps business to develop, and this trend has increased compared to previous months.
A significant number of Ukrainians (up to 60%) are experiencing financial difficulties, including increased debt and lack of savings for a rainy day. Respondents also expressed concern about the future of the hryvnia exchange rate, with the majority (55%) expecting it to fall.
In the context of utility bills, the vast majority (67%) of respondents believe that the level of tariffs is too high, which further emphasizes the general dissatisfaction with the financial situation and government policy in this area.
According to Oleksandr Poznyi, Director of Active Group, these results demonstrate the serious challenges faced by Ukrainian society in the context of the war and the current economic situation.
Earlier, Maksym Urakin, the founder of the Experts Club think tank, noted that in 2024 Ukraine’s public debt may exceed GDP for the first time, which poses significant risks to economic stability in the country.
For more details, please see the video at the link:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8hkvHhyzGLQ
You can subscribe to the Experts Club channel here:
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The article collects and analyzes the main macroeconomic indicators of Ukraine. In connection with the entry into force of the Law of Ukraine “On Protection of the Interests of Economic Entities during Martial Law or State of War” the State Statistics Service of Ukraine suspends the publication of statistical information for the period of martial law, as well as for three months from the date of its completion. The exception is the publication of information about the consumer price index, separate information on statistical indicators of 2021 and for the period January-February 2022. The article analyzes open data from the State Statistics Committee, the National Bank and analytical centers.
Maxim Urakin, PhD in Economics, presented an analysis of macroeconomic trends in Ukraine and the world based on official data from the State Statistics Committee of Ukraine, the NBU, the UN, the IMF and the World Bank.
Macroeconomic indicators of Ukraine
Maxim Urakin cited data from the National Bank of Ukraine on the improvement of the financial situation in 2023 compared to 2022.
“Last year was marked by a more favorable macroeconomic environment for the financial industry. GDP growth generally exceeded forecasts and inflation rates declined. Even after the downgrade, the discount rate remains high enough to make hryvnia investments attractive. Thanks to the efforts of the National Bank and market readiness, the transition to a policy of managed flexibility of the hryvnia exchange rate was successful. At the same time, this success was ensured primarily by stable receipts from partners within the framework of macrofinancial assistance and an increase in the share of exports of agricultural products,” Urakin emphasized.
The expert noted that the main risks for the economy remain the duration of the war and instability of international aid.
“In the third quarter of 2023, Ukraine’s GDP growth slowed to 8.2%. The negative balance of foreign trade increased by 3.2 times, which is a worrying signal. Public debt has slightly decreased compared to August figures, but in 2024 it may exceed the country’s GDP for the first time, which poses significant risks to economic stability,” the economist said.
The pace of international aid to Ukraine, in turn, has significantly decreased in the IV quarter of 2023 – I quarter of 2024, which could create significant risks to the country’s economic stability,” the economist said.
I quarter of 2024, which may negatively affect the recovery of the economy in the current year under the conditions of war.
Global Economic Outlook
Maxim Urakin also analyzed the global economy, noting a slowdown in growth to 2.2% in 2024.
“Analyzing the dynamics of global GDP shows that the global economy continues to recover from the pandemic, but geopolitical instability has a restraining effect on this growth. According to Maxim Urakin, it is important to monitor developments and adapt to changing conditions to ensure sustainable economic growth in the future. Ukraine, in this context, needs to focus on strengthening domestic political stability, restoring its economic potential and continuing reforms to improve its post-war prospects and strengthen its position on the global stage,” the expert explained.
According to the expert, the current macroeconomic situation in Ukraine and the world requires further analysis. For Ukraine, the main challenges in the coming years will be the need to rebuild Ukraine after the war and public debt management.
Earlier, the Experts Club analytical center released a video on how the GDP of countries has been changing in recent years, more video analysis is available here.
In his analytical video published on the Experts Club YouTube channel, Maxim Urakin, founder of the project and PhD in Economics, focuses on the key indicator of global macroeconomics – gross domestic product (GDP), which plays a central role in analyzing the economic well-being of countries. GDP is the total value of all goods and services produced in a country over a certain period of time. This indicator helps to assess how productive a country’s economy is and is an important indicator of its overall economic well-being.
Analyzing GDP dynamics on a global scale
According to Urakin, analyzing the last decades shows significant changes in the global economy.
“In the 1990s to 2000s, first of all, there was significant economic growth in countries such as the US and China, as well as in developing countries such as India. It was a time of economic prosperity for developed countries and a period of rapid growth for some emerging markets,” explained the founder of Experts Club.
But then the world economy was rocked by crises, including the global financial crisis of 2008 and the subsequent European debt crisis. These events, according to Expert Club, slowed global GDP growth and exposed the vulnerability of many economies previously considered promising.
“In recent years, we have faced new challenges, such as the COVID-19 pandemic, which led to a significant downturn in the global economy, and geopolitical tensions, including the war in Ukraine. These events have re-emphasized the interconnectedness and interdependence in the global economy,” said Urakin.
GDP and geopolitical changes
Urakin notes that in the context of geopolitics, GDP serves not only as a measure of economic development but also as an indicator of international influence.
“India, surpassing the UK, has become the fifth largest economy in the world, which emphasizes the shift of global economic forces to the Asian region. This is also confirmed by the fact that China, having overtaken the US in terms of purchasing power, has confirmed its status as a global economic power,” the economist emphasized.
Future trends
Analysis of global GDP dynamics shows that the global economy continues to recover from the pandemic, but geopolitical instability has a restraining effect on this growth. According to Maxim Urakin, it is important to monitor developments and adapt to changing conditions to ensure sustainable economic growth in the future. Ukraine, in this context, needs to focus on strengthening domestic political stability, restoring economic potential and continuing reforms to improve its post-war prospects and strengthen its position on the global stage.
To learn more about global GDP, check out the video on the Experts Club channel at the link:
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https://www.youtube.com/@ExpertsClub
GDP (Gross Domestic Product) is the total market value of all final goods and services produced in a country over a given period of time (usually a year). It measures a country’s total output and economic activity, being one of the key indicators of its economic health.
Nominal GDP is an estimate of gross domestic product expressed in current market prices, not adjusted for inflation or deflation. This means that when measuring nominal GDP, current prices of goods and services are taken into account, which can lead to higher GDP when prices rise (inflation), even if actual output has not increased.
PPP (Purchasing Power Parity) GDP is a method of estimating GDP that takes into account differences in the cost of living and price level between countries. The PPP GDP calculation uses prices adjusted to reflect real purchasing power in different countries. This allows for a more accurate comparison of living standards and economic activity between countries because it takes into account differences in the cost of goods and services in different places.
On Saturday, March 2, Kyiv will host a training seminar “First Aid for Injuries and Traumas” specially designed for journalists and bloggers. The event is organized by the Experts Club Kyiv Analytical Center with the support of its medical partner, ADONIS Medical Center Group, and its general partner, Pryirpinia Community Foundation.
The training aims to teach participants the basics of first aid in case of injuries and traumas, which is an important knowledge for everyone in times of war.
The seminar will be conducted by an anesthesiologist and co-author of 12 scientific publications, Mariana Bolyuk, who is a representative of the ADONIS Medical Center Group.
ADONIS, EXPERTS_CLUB, FIRST_AID, MEDICAL_AID, MEDICINE, URAKIN, БОЛЮК
This Saturday, the Experts Club Kyiv Training Center in cooperation with Art Gallery Universe opens an exhibition that goes beyond the usual understanding of art, approaching therapy and recovery. “Restoring Life: Art and Rehabilitation Project” is a series of works created by contemporary Ukrainian artists Igor Moshkov and E-Ludmyla Svitla, who convey deep emotional states and ways to rethink and overcome them through painting.
“Each painting in our exhibition is not just an image, it is a dialog between the artist and the visitor that helps to find inner harmony and peace. We are creating a space where art becomes a tool for psychological recovery for those who have faced challenges,” says Maksym Urakin, founder of Experts Club.
“For me, every brushstroke is a step towards comprehension and healing. My works are the stories I want to tell, and I believe they can help others find their way to inner light,” said E-Ludmyla Svitla.
The exhibition offers an extraordinary experience that combines art therapy and art, giving visitors the opportunity not only to enjoy painting, but also to discover a new tool in the fight against post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and its consequences. The project focuses on supporting spiritual health and mental recovery through artistic expression, creating a safe space for personal growth and self-expression.
“Recovering Life” reflects the true power of artistic symbolism, which lies not only in aesthetic pleasure, but also in its ability to heal and unite people around art.
Address of the event: 51/1A Vasyl Tyutyunnyk Street, Kyiv, office 112.
The beginning is February 17, 2024 at 15:00.
The number of participants is limited. For media accreditation, please contact fam@experts.news by 23-00 on February 16, 2024.
In the run-up to the winter period of 2023/2024, Ukraine’s energy system faces a number of key challenges and issues. In the context of ongoing military operations and possible shelling of energy infrastructure, the ever-changing situation in the global energy market, geopolitical features and climate change, the analysis of factors affecting the sustainability and efficiency of the industry is of particular importance. The comfort and safety of millions of Ukrainians during the cold season depends on how well and timely the peculiarities of thermal and nuclear generation, renewable energy sources and the state of the oil and gas industry are taken into account. Our review is aimed at assessing the country’s current readiness for the upcoming winter season, identifying potential weaknesses and suggesting the best ways to address them. The Club of Experts has analyzed the main factors that may affect the stability of Ukraine’s power system in the autumn and winter.
Thermal generation
The current situation with Ukraine’s thermal generation seems to be quite problematic, especially in terms of preparations for the winter period:
Repair works and the degree of recovery.
The Prime Minister of Ukraine Denys Shmyhal confirmed that the energy sector is actively continuing to prepare for winter, and in the midst of summer. Twenty-four power units of thermal power plants have been repaired or are under repair, which is 62% of the total. In addition, 70% of CHPPs have been repaired, and the remaining 30% are in the process of repair.
Also, according to the Prime Minister, Ukrenergo has already completed almost 80% of the repair of trunk power grids, and high-voltage substations have been restored to the pre-war level. In addition, a multi-level defense for energy facilities is being actively developed.
At the same time, the NEURC Chairman emphasized the need to accelerate the provision of additional financial resources. Under the government’s 5-7-9 soft loan program, UAH 7.6 billion can be allocated for CHPs and TPPs.
In total, the damage to TPP and CHPP equipment is estimated at UAH 29.9 billion, while only UAH 482 million was spent on emergency repair work. NPC Ukrenergo suffered losses of UAH 9.6 billion, but the cost of restoration amounted to only UAH 681 million.
Impact of electricity deficit on real GDP compared to no deficit, % (forecast until 2024, data from the National Bank of Ukraine)
The problem of coal supply
As of August 4, TPPs and CHPPs had accumulated 1.4 million tons of thermal coal in their warehouses, which is 100 thousand tons less than the approved plan. This gap is due to the active operation of thermal generation in July to cover the electricity shortage, which led to additional coal consumption.
The lag in coal production at state-owned mines is 148 thousand tons, or 10-15% compared to last year. This is due to the fact that 10 state-owned mines are under occupation, which negatively affects the total production.
To save coal, companies are considering using fuel oil. Several thermal power plants are currently actively using fuel oil, some at 100% and others at a ratio of 60% fuel oil to 40% gas.
Self-sufficiency of the population
Volodymyr Kudrytskyi, Chairman of the Board of the transmission system operator NPC Ukrenergo, called on the population of Ukraine to prepare or purchase electricity generators as a preventive measure against possible blackouts or power outages in the winter.
Kudrytsky emphasized that it is impossible to accurately predict the probability of blackouts, as it depends on the nature and success of Russian attacks.
Imports of equipment to ensure energy autonomy in 2021-2023, USD million (data from the National Bank of Ukraine)
According to industry representatives, special attention should be paid to the need for rational use of electricity, especially during peak hours. Citizens are urged to become more economical and responsible consumers of electricity.
Overall reduction in capacity
According to a report prepared by the UNDP and the World Bank, the available capacity to generate electricity in Ukraine has halved since the start of the Russian invasion in February 2022. The biggest hit has been to maneuvering capacity, especially at thermal power plants, making the system more vulnerable to rapid changes in demand.
Drop in capacity of different types of generation: Nuclear generation capacity decreased by 44%, hydropower by 29%, and renewable energy sources (RES) by 24%.
Distribution of electricity generation sources in Ukraine in 2000-2020 (data from ENTSO-E)
International support
On June 20, 2023, the transmission system operators of Continental Europe decided to increase the maximum capacity for electricity imports to Ukraine and Moldova to 1200 MW, an increase of 150 MW compared to the previous values.
Since June 2022, the TSOs of Continental Europe have continued to regularly adjust import limits, taking into account the needs of Ukraine and Moldova, as well as the results of measures to ensure the stability and security of the power system.
The European Network of Transmission System Operators for Electricity, ENTSO-E, plays a key role in coordinating the work of European transmission system operators, representing the interests of 39 TSOs from 35 countries. This organization ensures the coordinated and secure operation of the European power system, the largest interconnected power grid in the world, and acts as a platform for technical cooperation between countries.
Cross-border power lines in the western part of Ukraine and their capacity (data – ENTSO-E)
On August 25, the National Energy and Utilities Regulatory Commission (NEURC) approved the rules for allocating the capacity of the Ukraine-Romania cross-border transmission lines, as well as the structure for allocating the capacity of the Ukraine-Poland and Ukraine-Romania cross-border transmission lines.
As follows from the adopted resolutions of the National Commission, the structure of capacity allocation for auctions in the direction of Rzeszów – Khmelnytska NPP line of the Ukraine-Poland interstate section was approved by the regulator in the amount of 0% for annual and monthly auctions, and 100% for daily auctions.
This will help to increase the degree of synchronization of the power systems of Ukraine and the EU countries ahead of the winter period.
Conclusions to the section: Thus, the thermal segment of Ukraine’s energy system faces a number of challenges due to the war and the loss of some of its resources. However, thanks to internal measures and active support from European partners, the country is doing everything possible to ensure stable and secure energy supply to its citizens on the eve of the winter season.
Nuclear generation
Overview of repair work.
According to Petro Kotin, President of NNEGC Energoatom, four out of nine power units at nuclear power plants (NPPs) have to be repaired before the start of the autumn-winter period. Five units have already been repaired and successfully commissioned. One more unit is expected to complete repairs by the end of August, and the remaining three will be commissioned within the next two months.
According to Kotin, there are currently no units awaiting the start of repair work. All units have either been repaired or are in the process of being repaired. In addition, he confirmed that the company’s financial and economic program for the repair of the units is in full order and fully balanced.
Confirming the information provided by Energy Minister Herman Halushchenko, Kotin assured that all nine power units of South Ukrainian, Rivne and Khmelnytsky NPPs with a total capacity of 7,880 MW will be loaded at full capacity in the winter period from November 2023 to February 2024.
As of the end of August 2023, Ukraine has three NPPs in operation – Khmelnytska, Rivnenska and South Ukrainian NPPs with a total number of 9 units and a total capacity of 7.8 GW. Zaporizhzhia NPP with a capacity of 6 GW was seized by Russia on March 4, 2022, and has not been generating electricity for almost a year.
International cooperation
Ukraine and Canada intend to cooperate in the field of pre-licensing safety assessment of small modular reactors (SMRs). This initiative was announced after the signing of a memorandum of understanding between Oleh Korikov, Chairman of the SNRIU, and Rumina Welsh, President of the Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission.
Canada is one of the world leaders in nuclear energy, actively working to introduce new technologies. This is especially relevant in light of the need to replace old facilities that were launched in 1970-1980 and are reaching the end of their service life.
Given the difficult situation around the temporarily occupied Zaporizhzhia NPP and other nuclear facilities affected by the war, Ukrainian and Canadian regulators will cooperate in ensuring their safe operation. Both sides also expressed interest in improving regulatory activities in the field of radioactive waste management.
Conclusion on the section: The nuclear power industry of Ukraine is in an active stage of preparation for the upcoming winter period. Taking into account active repair works and Energoatom’s balanced economic strategy, the Ukrainian nuclear power system demonstrates readiness for efficient and safe operation in the cold season.
Development of renewable energy
Problems with water storage at Ukrhydroenergo
“Ukrhydroenergo, a key hydropower producer in Ukraine, is facing a shortage of water needed to maintain electricity production at the usual level. This is due to an increased production load and the company’s inability to accumulate sufficient water before the start of the heating season.
According to Bohdan Sukhetskyi, Deputy CEO for Commercial Activities, water is analogous to fuel for Ukrhydroenergo. In the past, the company has accumulated sufficient water reserves to help the power system at the initial stage of the autumn-winter period.
Under current conditions, Ukrhydroenergo is forced to work at the limit of its capabilities. Mr. Sukhetsky pointed out that NPC Ukrenergo uses 20-40% more electricity generation schedule than Ukrhydroenergo provides, which leads to additional water consumption.
Particular attention was paid to the impact on the operation of the Dnipro cascade hydroelectric power plants after the Kakhovka HPP was blown up. The situation with the Kakhovka reservoir has led to an imbalance in the cascade system, starting from the Kyiv reservoir and down to the lower part of the Dnipro.
“Ukrhydroenergo is facing a serious challenge related to the lack of water resources to maintain efficient operations. This could affect the stability of the country’s energy supply, especially in the run-up to the fall and winter. Given the difficult political and military situation, as well as the consequences of the Kakhovka hydroelectric power plant explosion, the importance of solving this problem cannot be underestimated.
Green energy
DTEK plans to complete the construction of wind farms with a total capacity of 600-700 MW by the end of 2024. By 2030, DTEK expects to implement projects with a total capacity of at least 2 GW.
At the same time, a new energy strategy for Ukraine was presented at the URC2023 conference, which reflects ambitious plans for the development of various energy sectors in the country:
Wind generation: the goal is to reach a capacity of 140 GW with investments of $134 billion.
Solar power generation: it is planned to increase to 94 GW with funding of $62 billion.
Energy storage: aiming for 38 GW of capacity with a budget of $25 billion.
Nuclear generation: the goal is 30 GW, which requires $80 billion.
CHP and bioenergy: development of up to 18 GW (no data on financing).
Hydropower: plans for 9 GW of capacity with investments of $4.5 billion.
Additionally, it is planned to allocate $72 billion for the development of hydrogen technologies, $5 billion for energy transmission systems and another $4.5 billion for hydropower.
The total investment needs for Ukraine’s new energy capacities amount to an impressive $383 billion, according to Ukraine’s Energy Minister Herman Galushchenko.
Within the framework of URC2023, the Ukrainian Wind Energy Association (UWEA) also signed a memorandum of understanding with the UK’s largest renewable energy association, RenewableUK. This step is aimed at strengthening cooperation, sharing experience and knowledge, as well as stimulating trade and market development between the renewable energy sectors of both countries.
These measures and plans demonstrate that Ukraine is focusing on the diversification and sustainable development of its energy sector, relying on modern technologies and international cooperation.
On July 3, the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine passed a key bill that could dramatically change the country’s green energy landscape. Here are the main points of this draft law:
Energy resources
Gas storage facilities
By the beginning of the autumn-winter period, Ukraine plans to accumulate 14.7 billion cubic meters of gas in its storage facilities. Currently, 11.7 billion cubic meters have already been accumulated. The key issues now are the repair and safety of thermal energy facilities and the accumulation of fuel resources. The Cabinet of Ministers emphasized the importance of being prepared for the heating season and preparing for possible attacks on thermal energy infrastructure.
Fuel market
The A-95 Consulting Group provided data according to which the price of gasoline in August-September may reach 60.86 UAH/l, diesel fuel – 55.61 UAH/l, and gas – 26.63 UAH/l. The main factors affecting price changes are the integration of higher taxes and rising global prices, as well as the sale of fuel stocks formed before the abolition of preferential taxes.
Sergiy Kuyun, Group Director of A-95, noted the key influence of major players such as OKKO, WOG and Ukrnafta on price stabilization. He also pointed to supply difficulties due to the Russian shelling of Ukrainian ports, which led to an increase in freight and insurance requirements. In this regard, Kuyun suggested increasing onshore contracts and consolidating traders to conclude long-term contracts for large tanker shipments.
Dynamics of changes in fuel prices in 2022-2023, UAH/liter (data from the National Bank)
Overall, the industry is facing a number of challenges, including the need to increase gas reserves, a difficult situation in the fuel market due to changes in pricing, and risks associated with the political situation. Strategic decisions at the state level are needed to stabilize the situation.
General conclusions
Ahead of the autumn-winter season of 2023/2024, Ukraine’s power system is generally ready to provide stable electricity supply to consumers. Given the low intensity or absence of missile attacks on energy facilities, rolling blackouts may be sporadic or not applied at all. The probability of blackout in this scenario remains minimal.
In the event of new attacks on the power system in the autumn and winter, the probability of blackouts increases, while the number and duration of blackouts will depend on the nature and success of attacks by the Russian Federation. At the same time, given the energy sector’s preparations for such a scenario, possible blackouts will be temporary.
The co-authors of this analytical review are Maksym Urakin, co-founder of Experts Club, PhD in Economics, and Oleksiy Fedinsky, Director of the analytical center.
