The Ukrainian Grain Association (UZA) has updated its estimate of the potential 2023 harvest, increasing it by 7.8 million tons to 76.8 million tons of grains and oilseeds, 3 million tons more than last year.
“The increase in this year’s crop forecast is due to favorable weather conditions and better-than-expected crop yields, although the area planted is 2.2 million hectares smaller than last year,” the association said in a statement on Thursday.
According to the updated forecast, exports from Ukraine in the new season 2023/2024 could potentially reach almost 48 million tons, while last season, which ended on June 30, according to UZA estimates, it reached 58 million tons worth about $20 billion.
It is specified that the 2023 wheat crop estimate has improved from 17.9 million tons to 20.2 million tons (2022 was 20.2 million tons and 2021 was a record 33 million tons). Potential wheat exports in MY 2023/2024 could be around 15 million tons, given the early season transitional residue of 4.3 million tons.
UZA also raised its 2023 barley crop forecast to 5.2 million tons from 4.4 million tons (10.1 million tons in 2021 and 5.8 million tons in 2022) and potential exports to 2.6 million tons.
Corn crop expectations for the new season have improved from 24.2 million tons to 26.9 million tons (2021 – 37.6 million tons, 2022 – 27.3 million tons), with potential exports of about 22 million tons, the report said.
According to it, the sunflower crop estimate for 2023 is raised from 12.7 to 13.9 million tons (2021 – 16.9 million tons, 2022 – 11.1 million tons), potential exports could be 1.1 million tons, and sunflower seed processing could be 12.5 million tons.
The UZA tentatively estimates the 2023 rapeseed harvest at 3.9 million tons and exports at 3.7 million tons, while the soybean harvest is expected to be larger – the estimate has increased from 4.4 to 4.8 million tons, and its potential 2023/2024 MY exports could reach 3.3 million tons.
UZA emphasizes that in general, grain and oilseed exports in the new 2023/2024 MY can be expected at the indicated level if Ukraine is able to export through its Black Sea ports and if logistics of alternative routes, including the Danube route, improve and become cheaper.
“Further impediments to grain exports from Ukraine will have a negative impact on the availability of grain on the world market and will lead to higher prices and, consequently, increased food inflation in the world. Moreover, in case of impossibility to export products, Ukrainian farmers may reorient their production and refuse to grow grain, which will further aggravate the crisis in the world food market in the medium term,” UZA said.
The Ukrainian Grain Association (UZA) is an association of grain producers, processors and major exporters of grain, which annually export about 90 percent of Ukrainian grain products.
