Ukraine has already harvested 12.5 million tons of wheat with record yields, but due to weather conditions 60% of the crop will be sold as fodder, which is twice as much as last year’s figure, according to the analytical cooperative “Pusk”, established within the framework of the All-Ukrainian Agrarian Rada (VAR).
“The key problem of the new harvest was its low quality: due to weather conditions, the grain has a low protein content. Most exporting countries also have problems with the quality of grain,” analysts said.
According to their information, the volume of feed grain in the season-2023 may amount to 60% of the new harvest. In previous years, this figure was at the level of 30%, and the remaining 70% was food grain.
Ukraine will get no more than 40% of high-protein wheat in 2023, which will affect prices.
“The spread between fodder and high-protein wheat is already $15-18/ton, in the future it may exceed $20/ton,” experts noted.
The current season will be problematic with the supply of food grain worldwide, stated the WAR and added that a lot of feed grain will be produced by France, Germany and the Russian Federation, which are experiencing problems with grain quality.
“Those who have high-protein wheat are selling to Lithuania, to Germany, and at small ports the supply is low. If last season the markets were surplus, traders dictated prices, now we are moving to a deficit model. Farmers are not taking wheat to the ports, and prices will rise,” the analysts explained.
They reported that prices in Danube ports on the basis of CPT are $170-175/tonne, by the end of the week they are expected at $180/tonne, and by the end of August may exceed $200/tonne.
“World demand is just starting to grow, there will be news of quality problems in other regions as well,” predicted the CAP.
