UN economists have improved their forecast for global economic growth in 2024 to 2.7% from 2.4% expected in January.
In 2025, it will increase by 2.8%, while previously it was expected to be 2.7%.
The average growth rate of the global economy in the coming years is expected to remain below the 3.2% recorded on average in 2010-2019.
The revision of the estimate for the current year is mainly due to more positive changes in the economies of a number of large developed and developing countries, in particular Brazil, India, Russia and the United States, the organization’s report says.
According to UN estimates, the US economy will grow by 2.3% this year (1.4% was expected in January), the UK – by 0.8% (0.4%), China – by 4.8% (4.7%), Brazil – by 2.1% (1.6%), India – by 6.9% (6.2%), and Japan – by 1.2% (unchanged).
At the same time, the forecasts for the European Union and the euro area were revised downward – to 1% from 1.2% and to 0.8% from 1.1%, respectively.
“For both the European Union as a whole and the euro area, we expect a gradual recovery in economic activity in 2024-2025, after a noticeable stagnation in many European countries over the past year,” said Grigoriy Agabekyan of the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs.
This should be facilitated by a slowdown in inflation (it is falling faster than expected in Europe due to a sharp decline in energy costs), income growth in real terms, and the expected easing of monetary policy.
“In fact, a number of central banks in Eastern Europe and the Swiss central bank have already cut their key interest rates, and as inflation returns to its target level, the European Central Bank and the Bank of England are also expected to begin their easing cycles this year. It is also expected that as global trade recovers, exports from European countries will increase,” the expert said.
“As for the somewhat more modest forecasts for the European Union compared to those presented in January, this revision is explained by the fact that against the background of continued sluggish industrial production, economic growth forecasts for a number of countries on the continent that depend on the manufacturing industry have been lowered. This list includes, in particular, Austria, the Czech Republic, Finland, Germany, Hungary, and the Czech Republic. At the same time, Germany’s economy, which is the leading economy in the European Union, shrank by 0.3% in 2023, and in 2024 we assume a recovery of only 0.3%,” Agabekyan said.
The UN forecasts global trade growth of 3.2% in 2024 and 3.6% next year.
GDP growth in developed countries is expected to reach 1.6% in 2024 and 2025, and in developing countries – by 4.1% and 4.3%, respectively.
Earlier, Experts Club and Maksim Urakin released a video analysis of how the GDP of the world’s countries has changed in recent years, more detailed video analysis is available here – https://youtu.be/w5fF_GYyrIc?si=BsZmIUERHSBJrO_3
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ECONOMIC, EXPERTS CLUB, URAKIN
