The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) has strengthened the official hryvnia exchange rate against the US dollar by 12 kopecks after the official hryvnia/US dollar exchange rate rose by 8 kopecks on Thursday. – to 41.4313 UAH/$1, according to data on the regulator’s website.
“The dollar exchange rate is expected to remain within the range of 41.50-42.20 UAH/$1. The main factors that will influence the market will be the NBU’s decision on the discount rate on March 6 and the US Fed policy,” analysts at currency exchange market operator KYT Group shared their expectations for the coming weeks in their February review.
In their opinion, the hryvnia may gradually weaken in spring, in particular, if the foreign trade deficit grows. Analysts forecast an average corridor for the U.S. dollar in the range of UAH 42.50-44.00/$1.
“The main risks remain possible delays in international financial assistance and the growth of the budget deficit,” KYT Group said.
The hryvnia-US dollar exchange rate will be at 44.50-45.50 UAH/$1 by the end of the year, experts believe.
The NBU set the reference rate at 41.4341 UAH/$1 at 12:00 Friday against 41.5274 UAH/$1 on Thursday.
Meanwhile, the dollar in the cash market has fallen in price today: when buying its rate decreased by 3 copecks, to 41.53 UAH/$1, and when selling – by 1 copeck, to 41.64 UAH/$1.
As reported, the Cabinet of Ministers has set the average annual indicator of the official exchange rate of the hryvnia to the US dollar in the state budget of 2025 at the level of UAH 45/$1.
In the 2024 budget, the government budgeted an annual average of 40.7 UAH/$1, and at the end of the year – 42.1 UAH/$1. The hryvnia weakened by 10.6% or UAH 4.02 to UAH 42.0390/$1 at the official exchange rate last year.
Ukraine’s international reserves as of February 1, 2025, according to preliminary data, amounted to $43 billion 3.1 million, in January they decreased by 1.8%, or $785 million, and net international reserves (NIR) – by $0.79 billion, or 2.7% – to $28.313 billion.
Source: https://interfax.com.ua/news/projects/1051560.html
