As of September 22, Ukraine had exported nearly 1.7 million tons of wheat, and there is enough product on the market to cover contracts, which is holding back price growth, but the situation may change in October.
This forecast was announced by the analytical cooperative “Pusk,” created within the framework of the All-Ukrainian Agrarian Council (VAR).
“The indicative price for third-class wheat remains at $212–214 CPT-port. This is due to sufficient product reserves among traders and high supply on the global market, especially from Russia,” its analysts noted.
According to their information, coverage of wheat contracts for November-December will significantly decrease for many market players.
“Contracts for October are already being concluded at a price of $218-220 CPT-port with a potential increase to $223. The main reason is a reduction in stocks and growing uncertainty about the future harvest,” the experts explained.
Climate risks in countries that are major wheat producers will be the leading factor supporting prices.
“In Ukraine, the central and southern regions are suffering from drought, and no significant rainfall is forecast in the near future. Russia is also experiencing a critical moisture deficit, and the pace of sowing is the slowest in the last five years. A similar situation is observed in France, Romania, and Bulgaria, where moisture shortages are threatening winter wheat yields. Given this, there is a threat of a reduction in winter crop areas. Importers, anticipating potential problems with the 2026 harvest, may purchase grain more actively. Therefore, wheat prices may rise significantly in January-March,” Pusk states.
