Last week, the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) reduced its sale of dollars on the interbank market by $131.6 million, or 17.9%, to $602.7 million, while the weakening of the hryvnia slowed to 12.8 kopecks from 37.4 kopecks a week earlier.
According to information from the National Bank, during the first four days of last week, the average daily negative balance of currency purchases and sales by legal entities increased to $74.2 million from $36.6 million during the same period a week earlier, totaling $297 million.
At the same time, on the cash market, on the contrary, there was a decrease in currency purchases by the population: from Saturday to Thursday, the negative balance amounted to $21.3 million against $29.6 million the week before last. The purchase of non-cash currency exceeded its sale during all these days.
The official hryvnia-dollar exchange rate, which started last week at 41.6027 UAH/$1, weakened to 41.7607 UAH/$1 over three days but ended the week at the same level.
On the cash market, the dollar exchange rate over the past week fluctuated around the official rate of 41.7565 UAH/$1, and the hryvnia weakened by about 25 kopecks to the following levels: purchase – about 41.70 UAH/$1, and sale – about 41.80 UAH/$1.
At the end of last week, Bloomberg reported pressure from the International Monetary Fund to increase the pace of hryvnia devaluation, but there is no information on the impact of this factor yet, except that on the first trading day of this week, the hryvnia fell slightly to 41.7624 UAH/$1.
“The Ukrainian currency market continues to be influenced by the National Bank of Ukraine’s strategy of controlled flexibility… Since the beginning of October, the hryvnia has been gradually weakening against the dollar. The exchange rate on the cash market is changing at a similar pace,” experts from KYT Group, a major player in the cash currency exchange market, described the situation.
They added that there has been a noticeable increase in demand on the interbank market in October, and the NBU has been forced to increase its interventions. According to experts, this trend is seasonal on the one hand, as companies’ need for currency to make payments increases in the fall, and on the other hand, an additional factor affecting the hryvnia was the intensification of shelling of Ukraine’s energy and gas infrastructure, which led to an increase in imports of gas and energy equipment.
“In the short term (1–1.5 weeks): the base range is 41.4–41.9 UAH/$1, with a probable tendency toward the upper limit of the forecast,” according to the forecast for the cash market provided by KYT Group.
In the medium term (2–3 months), according to its experts, the exchange rate will be in the range of 41.30–42.00 UAH/$1. They believe that if the Fed goes ahead with an October rate cut and the risks of a trade war between the US and China weaken, the fundamental movement of the dollar on the international market may strengthen, which will also affect the exchange rate in Ukraine. However, the domestic Ukrainian context of expectations of continued large-scale shelling of infrastructure and a deterioration in the energy sector, as well as the high demand for growth in import volumes, may contribute to a more rapid strengthening of the dollar on the Ukrainian currency market.
“In the long term (6+ months): the scenario of a gradual devaluation of the hryvnia remains. Provided that international aid continues to flow in at a steady pace, the benchmark is 43.20-44.40 UAH/USD until mid-2026, taking into account the current situation in Ukraine,” according to a comment by KYT Group.
Source: https://bank.gov.ua/ua/markets
https://interfax.com.ua/news/projects/1113033.html
