Issue No. 2 – November 2025
The purpose of this review is to provide an analysis of the current situation on the Ukrainian currency market and a forecast of the hryvnia exchange rate against key currencies based on current data. We consider the current conditions, market dynamics, key influencing factors and likely scenarios for future developments.
Analysis of the current situation on the currency market
International context
In the second half of November, expectations intensified on the international currency market regarding a future reduction in the Fed’s rate at the Fed Committee meeting on 9-10 December. In addition, at the end of the month, Fed Vice Chair and New York Federal Reserve Bank President Williams said that the Fed could cut rates ‘in the near term’ without jeopardising its inflation target.
Investors are now focusing on the Fed’s upcoming decision on the key rate. It is expected that a decision to cut the rate by 25 basis points will be made at the December meeting. This will be influenced, in particular, by new US statistics showing a decline in applications for state unemployment benefits. However, the new data failed to strengthen the US currency, and expectations of a decision to appoint a new Fed chair who will pursue a more accommodative policy are also weighing on the dollar. Currently, the media is reporting that the leading candidate for the post is White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett, who has previously stated that interest rates should be lower than they are under current Fed Chairman Jerome Powell.
November 2025 brought nothing unexpected for the dollar: there were minor fluctuations throughout the month, with the US currency weakening to a low of 1.1648 in the middle of the month. At the end of November, the market reached a certain equilibrium, and the exchange rate reached 1.1584, effectively returning to its level on 31 October.
It is important to note that the situation with the expected rate cut also affects other markets. For example, gold traded at $4,186 per ounce at the end of November, and in January-November this year, the growth rate exceeded 53%. The prospect of another round of monetary policy easing in the US is fuelling demand for precious metals. US tariff policy had the least impact on the dollar in November, as the trade truce between the US and China continues.
Meanwhile, the euro is expected to remain stable and strengthen slightly against the dollar in the near future amid the upcoming Fed meeting and the likely decision on the next stage of easing. A cut in the key rate usually weakens the dollar somewhat, i.e. it strengthens the euro. However, the European Union is closely monitoring the situation in the banking sector: the European Central Bank recently called on lenders to maintain dollar liquidity buffers, highlighting concerns about financial stability that could negatively affect risk sentiment. However, the eurozone economy is currently showing decent growth, thanks in particular to the steady development of the services sector, so there is cautious optimism in Europe that risks capable of undermining the stability of the euro will be avoided.
Internal Ukrainian context
Throughout November, the Ukrainian currency market was dominated by a devaluation trend, and while at the beginning of November the official NBU exchange rate was 41.89 hryvnia per dollar, by the end of the last week of the month it was already 42.30 hryvnia per dollar. The exchange rate did not change abruptly, with a certain smoothness in the devaluation fluctuations, and the National Bank was present on the interbank market with foreign currency offers. However, the level of interventions did not increase significantly compared to the previous month: during the period from 3 to 21 November, the NBU sold $1.925 billion on the market (for comparison, during the last three weeks of October, the volume of interventions amounted to $1.935 billion). Thus, the volume of currency sales by the NBU in October and, ultimately, in November should be almost the same (last month, the volume of NBU interventions amounted to about $3 billion).
Of course, there were also devaluation movements in the cash market in November. While at the beginning of November the average selling rate in the cash market was 42.14 UAH/USD, at the end of the month it was 42.56 UAH/USD.
In Ukraine, demand for foreign currency remains high due to increased imports caused by the need to repair energy facilities damaged by Russian attacks, as well as expectations among both businesses and the population of further devaluation of the national currency. The National Bank of Ukraine is curbing sharp fluctuations with interventions, but is trying not to inject too much into the market, as reserves are still high (49.5 billion dollars at the beginning of November) and must remain so to ensure macro-financial stability.
An important event in November for Ukraine was the announcement that the International Monetary Fund mission and the Ukrainian authorities had reached a staff-level agreement on a new four-year programme under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) with potential access to financing of $8.1 billion. The new agreement provides for a set of fiscal and monetary policy measures that will form the basis of the programme. The main objectives are to support macroeconomic stability, restore debt and external sustainability, fight corruption, and improve governance. According to the IMF statement, the NBU commits to reducing inflation to a target level of 5% over its three-year policy horizon, while allowing greater exchange rate flexibility to adjust to fundamentals and strengthening the role of the exchange rate as a shock absorber, which will also help maintain adequate central bank foreign exchange reserves. This means that further IMF financing is clearly tied to the devaluation trend, and therefore expectations of a weakening hryvnia in the medium term are entirely justified.
Among the risks that will put pressure on the exchange rate, in addition to geopolitical issues and the difficult situation in the energy sector, there is also the rather vague prospect of financing the budget gap (the difference between state budget revenues and expenditures in 2026). In fact, this will require at least $45 billion in external financing, but the sources of some of these funds are still unknown.
US dollar exchange rate: dynamics and analysis
General characteristics of market behaviour
In November, the US dollar strengthened on the Ukrainian market, and a clear devaluation trend remained.
During November, the exchange rate changed as follows: on the interbank market, the rate rose from 41.01 UAH/USD to 42.25 UAH/USD, and the official NBU rate rose from 41.89 to 42.19 UAH/USD. Interestingly, at the end of the month, the NBU decided to suddenly strengthen the hryvnia: on 27 November, the official exchange rate was 42.30 UAH/USD, and on 28 November, it was 42.19 UAH/USD. On Thursday, 27 November, the interbank market opened with a selling rate of 42.26 UAH/USD, and by the evening, the market closed at 42.22–42.25 UAH/USD. On Friday, 28 November, American banks are closed (as it is the day after Thanksgiving, which is a public holiday), which has a certain impact on the Ukrainian currency segment.
In November, the average purchase rate was in the range of 41.7–42.05 UAH/USD on the cash market, and the sale rate was in the range of 42.15–42.48 UAH/USD. At bank cash desks, the spread between the buying and selling rates is no longer growing; on the contrary, there is a tendency for the spread to narrow: at large retail banks at the end of November, it was 0.45–0.6 UAH/USD.
Key influencing factors
Forecast
Euro exchange rate: dynamics and analysis
General characteristics of market behaviour
The euro exchange rate on the Ukrainian market strengthened gradually in November: over two weeks, the official euro exchange rate shifted from UAH 48.51/EUR to UAH 48.87/EUR. The fluctuations were mild and did not cause panic reactions either on the interbank or cash markets.
Key observations
Ø Exchange rate geometry:
o The euro selling rate at the beginning of November was around 48.52 UAH/EUR. In the second ten days of the month, there was a clear trend towards the strengthening of the euro, with the exchange rate reaching 48.91 UAH/EUR on 25 November, followed by a slight pullback to 48.87 UAH/EUR.
Ø Supply and demand:
o Demand for cash euros remains fairly high, but is losing out to demand for US dollars due to more active fluctuations and the weak predictability of the euro’s trajectory.
o The spread between the buying and selling rates of the euro on the cash market remains high: 0.6–1 UAH/EUR in large banks.
Key influencing factors
Forecast
Recommendations: dollar or euro — buy, sell or wait?
USD/UAH
The US dollar is under pressure from economic activity data and ahead of the Fed Committee meeting. According to new data, economic activity in the US has remained virtually unchanged in recent weeks, although employment has been weaker in about half of the 12 Fed districts and consumer spending has declined, heightening concerns about the labour market. The US is also experiencing a freeze on new hiring and is only recruiting new staff to replace those who have left. This situation in the labour market is motivating the Fed to take further steps to ease monetary policy, and interest rate futures markets are already reflecting a high probability of another 0.25% cut in borrowing costs at the Fed meeting on 9-10 December.
In December, the dollar may strengthen if it is supported by new statistical data and in the absence of new risk factors. The dollar is likely to trade in the 1.1470–1.1680 range.
However, for investors, the dollar remains an important haven for solid savings, so investors should consider purchasing the American currency for various strategies.
In Ukraine, the dollar will only strengthen, and dollar savings will continue to serve as a solid basis for currency strategy, both in the short and medium to long term.
EUR/UAH
The euro is actively strengthening on the Ukrainian market, although short-term exchange rate rollbacks are likely, but the overall trend is for the euro to appreciate against the backdrop of a gradual strategy of weakening the hryvnia. The euro in the portfolio will help diversify part of the currency savings, as well as carry out short-term speculative transactions during periods of rapid peak exchange rate changes. There are no strategic reasons to get rid of the euro from portfolios. This means continuing to buy, although it is possible to exit some euro investments if this is part of the investor’s updated strategy.
Overall strategy
Expectations of a Fed rate cut in December and data on the rather unstable state of the US labour market are affecting the global currency market and leading to a fall in the US dollar. The euro is strengthening thanks to the absence of sharp changes in the ECB’s monetary policy and data on inflation and economic development in the eurozone.
In the medium term, investors would be wise to focus on the dollar as the base currency for savings, while holding on to the euro for a likely short position, when it will be possible to exit investments with maximum profit due to sharp exchange rate fluctuations. The forecast strengthening of the euro due to the unstable situation in the US and the Fed’s policy may provide additional incentives to buy the euro within the framework of a medium-term investment programme.
In Ukraine, further devaluation of the national currency is expected, which will increase demand for dollars and euros on the cash market. Demand for currency is also being driven by expectations of a difficult winter and further large-scale shelling of major cities and energy facilities by the aggressor. The weakening of the hryvnia gives investors room to form their savings strategy in foreign currencies, with the dollar and euro as the base currencies. A well-thought-out and cautious investment strategy will allow you to form a stable and profitable currency portfolio that is protected from the risks of exchange rate volatility.
This material has been prepared by analysts at the international multi-service FinTech platform KYT Group and reflects their expert, analytical and professional judgement. The information presented in this review is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as a recommendation for action.
The company and its analysts make no representations and assume no responsibility for any consequences arising from the use of this information. All information is provided ‘as is’ without any additional guarantees of completeness, obligations of timeliness or updating or supplementation.
Users of this material should independently assess the risks and make informed decisions based on their own assessment and analysis of the situation from various available sources that they themselves consider sufficiently qualified. Before making any investment decisions, we recommend consulting with an independent financial advisor.
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