Wheat exports from Ukraine in the 2025-2026 marketing year (MY, July-June) are expected to reach 17.6 million tons, which is 11.5% more than in the previous season, according to the Ukrainian Agribusiness Club (UAC).
The association estimates the gross harvest for the current season at 23.1 million tons, which is 2.9% more than in 2024/2025 MY.
According to analysts, the increase in production was made possible by the expansion of cultivated areas to 5.1 million hectares (by 4.8%), which offset the decline in average yield to 4.5 tons/hectare due to unfavorable weather conditions. At the same time, the current harvest is still 6.2% below the average for the last five years.
The UACB predicts that the increase in harvest will allow for an increase in shipments after a drop in exports in the previous season to 15.8 million tons. Experts cite the stable operation of Ukraine’s own sea route as the main factor in the recovery.
At the same time, domestic demand in Ukraine continues to decline due to the temporary occupation of territories and population migration. Total wheat consumption in 2025/2026 MY is forecast at 6.2 million tons, of which 3.7 million tons will be used for food, 1.5 million tons for feed, and 825,000 tons for seeds.
“The Ukrainian wheat market is demonstrating adaptability. Despite demographic challenges and weather conditions, farmers are managing to increase their acreage. Domestic needs are fully met, and the successful operation of export routes allows for the restoration of positive supply dynamics and guarantees Ukraine’s stable presence in key markets in Europe, Africa, and Asia,” the UCAAB concluded.
