The gross grain harvest in Ukraine in the 2026-2027 marketing year (MY, July-June) is forecast at 58.7 million tons, which is 4% lower than the current season’s figures, according to the information and analytical agency APK-Inform.
According to analysts’ March estimates, the wheat harvest is expected to reach almost 20 million tons, which is 14% less than in the current season. Barley harvest may amount to 5.1 million tons (-5%), while corn production is forecast at 31.8 million tons, which is 3% higher than last year.
“This forecast is based on the reduction in the area sown with winter crops due to the drought in the fall and unfavorable weather conditions in February this year, which may lead to the partial destruction of winter crops in some regions, as well as a possible slight increase in the area sown with corn due to the replanting of winter crops amid high demand for this grain,” the agency explains.
At the same time, despite the expected decline in gross harvest, experts estimated the export potential of grains in 2026/27 MY at 42 million tons, which is 4% more than in 2025/26 MY. The growth in supplies to foreign markets will be facilitated by high carryover stocks from the current season, which may amount to 11.4 million tons, APK-Inform concluded.
