The export potential of Ukraine’s agricultural sector in the upcoming 2026/2027 season will grow significantly thanks to the sale of accumulated record-high stocks.
This was announced by Maksym Kharchenko, an analyst at UkrAgroConsult, during the Black Sea Grain.Kyiv conference on Wednesday.
According to the agency’s forecast, the total harvest of major grain crops in Ukraine next season is expected to reach 59.4 million tons, while oilseeds are projected at 23 million tons. Meanwhile, the total volume of carryover grain stocks will increase by 293% and reach nearly 13 million tons. The most significant growth is expected for wheat—up to 4.7 million tons (370% more than previous figures), barley—up to 1.36 million tons, and peas—up to 222,000 tons.
Due to active warehouse unloading, wheat exports in the new season could rise to 20 million tons, and corn exports to 28.5 million tons. At the same time, production growth is forecast in the oilseed segment: the sunflower harvest could reach 13.7 million tons compared to 10.8 million tons last year, rapeseed—3.6 million tons, and soybeans—5.7 million tons. At the same time, carryover stocks of sunflower seeds are expected to decrease by 61%, while soybean stocks will increase by 50%—to 101,000 tons.
The forecast for the production and export of processed products also shows positive trends. Specifically, sunflower oil production is expected to reach 6 million tons, with exports at 5.6 million tons. Sunflower meal production is projected at 5.8 million tons, with an export potential of 4.65 million tons.
Analysts expect soybean oil production in the 2026/2027 season to reach 1 million tons, of which 950,000 tons are planned for export. Soybean meal output will total 4.4 million tons, with an export potential of 3.55 million tons.
In the rapeseed processing segment, oil production is projected at 1.55 million tons, with nearly the entire volume (1.5 million tons) to be exported, while rapeseed meal production and exports will amount to 1.95 million tons and 1.8 million tons, respectively.
According to experts, an analysis of production in the Black Sea region indicates a stabilization of the overall harvest. In particular, wheat production in Russia for the 2026/2027 season is projected at 85.8 million tons, compared to 92.8 million tons this year, though exports will remain consistently high—around 47 million tons. As for the countries of the Danube region, the total harvest is expected to reach 64.96 million tons. An increase in grain production is forecast in Hungary—to 8.88 million tons in total for wheat and corn—as well as in Poland—by 1.7%. In contrast, Bulgaria is expected to see a 13.4% decline, to 6.2 million tons of wheat, while in Romania, wheat and corn production will stand at 9.1 million tons and 10.8 million tons, respectively.
“We see two main factors as we enter this season: rising prices for diesel fuel and nitrogen fertilizers. Small producers have been hit the hardest, as they are forced to purchase inputs right before the start of the planting season. This problem will have an even greater impact on the 2027 harvest. There is a realistic scenario of lower yields not only in Ukraine but also globally, which will put significant pressure on prices,” Kharchenko concluded.
