Ukraine’s agricultural exports in August 2026 are expected to total approximately 1.33 million metric tons, which is 54% less than in July and could mark the lowest August figure since the full-scale war began, according to brokerage firm Spike Brokers.
“Expected August exports will be 68% lower than the average August export volume for 2022–2025—4.19 million metric tons—and 64% lower than the previous August low during the full-scale war—3.71 million metric tons in 2025,” the company noted.
According to the brokers, 641,900 metric tons of agricultural products were exported via all modes of transport in the first half of August, compared to 2.889 million metric tons for the entire month of July.
The share of maritime transport in total exports fell from 86.5% in July to 51.4% in the first 15 days of August, while the share of rail transport rose from 11.2% to 38.5%.
At the same time, the increase in the share of rail transport does not indicate a resumption of grain shipments: grain exports by rail fell by 68% compared to July and by 77% compared to the same period last year.
So far in August, 250,000 metric tons have been shipped by rail through western border crossings, which is 126% more than in the corresponding period of July, while shipments to the ports of Greater Odesa totaled only 53,200 metric tons—a decrease of 94.5%.
“The increase in land-based shipments offset only about 15% of the loss in seaport traffic; even when combined with the increase in exports via Izmail, the offset does not exceed 19%,” the report states.
The volume of grain railcars transported through western border crossings during the first 18 days of August increased 2.3-fold—to 160.6 railcars per day, compared to 71.3 railcars in July. The Romanian route had the highest volume—49.1 cars per day, followed by Poland—47.9 cars, Slovakia—34.8 cars, and Hungary—28.8 cars.
As of August 19, there were 9,524 thousand railcars en route to the border, which is 21% more than at the end of July; specifically, the number of grain railcars rose to 979 from 369.
The Izmail route is also increasing its shipments, but cannot compensate for the loss of maritime exports: grain exports via Izmail rose from 10 thousand to 38.8 thousand metric tons, while shipments to the ports of Greater Odesa fell by more than 0.9 million metric tons.
