The population in Ukraine’s government-controlled territories currently stands at 29 million people, according to Ella Libanova, director of the Mykhailo Ptukha Institute of Demography and Quality of Life Research at the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine.
In an episode of the Open Reality special project, she reported that this joint estimate by the State Statistics Service (SSS) and the Institute of Demography—made without a census—is based on data from mobile operators and government registries. “As of today, this is the joint estimate by the SSS and our Institute—29 million. I always say that it’s plus or minus about 300,000,” Libanova noted.
Since no population census has been conducted in Ukraine since 2001, the researchers used data from three mobile operators as a basis, supplementing it with other sources.
“We used this database as our foundation and supplemented it with various available sources of information for verification and refinement: the labor market; data from the Pension Fund, aggregated with data from tax authorities, which includes not only pensioners; data from the Migration Service and the Ministry of Justice from the demographic registry; we also used the ‘school registry’ and EHealth,” the expert explained.
Libanova acknowledged that this method is not ideal, but there is currently no alternative to it.
She also noted that, according to Eurostat, approximately 4.3 million Ukrainians currently reside in European Union countries.
At the same time, according to Libanova, there is no reliable data on the number of Ukrainians who have left for Russia since the start of the full-scale war. She also noted that a policy of demographic replacement is being carried out in the territories temporarily occupied by Russia: the Ukrainian population is being displaced and replaced by people from other regions of Russia, which, in her opinion, is a continuation of the practice of population assimilation.
