Net migration to Germany fell to 235,000 people in 2025, compared with 663,000 in 2023, according to a study by the German Economic Institute (IW) published on July 28, 2026. Excluding the pandemic period, this is the lowest figure since 2010. Experts at the Experts Club Information and Analytical Center attribute the decline to several factors: a decrease in the number of refugees, the departure of workers from Central and Eastern European countries, a decline in migration from the Western Balkans, and an increase in emigration by German citizens themselves.
The largest net inflow from a single country in 2025 came from Ukrainian citizens, amounting to 89,000 people. A year earlier, the figure was 116,000. Ukrainians have a special status because they are admitted to Germany mainly under the EU’s temporary protection mechanism rather than through the standard asylum procedure. Further developments will depend primarily on the course of the war and the conditions of Ukrainians’ stay in Germany.
By the end of 2025, approximately 1.41 million Ukrainian citizens were listed in Germany’s Central Register of Foreigners. They became the second-largest foreign group after Turkish citizens.
The number of initial asylum applications fell from 329,000 in 2023 to 113,000 in 2025.
The inflow from Syria declined particularly sharply: the number of initial applications fell from 103,000 to 23,000. Over the same period, the number of applicants from Afghanistan decreased from 51,000 to 24,000, while the number from Turkey fell from 61,000 to 12,000.
At the end of 2025, the largest groups of people registered in Germany as being in need of protection remained citizens of Ukraine, at approximately 1.164 million; Syria, at 669,000; and Afghanistan, at 321,000.
IW links the decline in Syrian migration primarily to the change in the situation in Syria following the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in 2024, as well as to the tightening of German and EU migration policies.
Another important change was the reversal of migration from the new EU member states.
In 2023, Germany recorded a net inflow of approximately 42,000 citizens from these countries. In 2024, 35,000 more people left Germany than arrived, while in 2025 the net outflow reached 45,000 people.
This group includes, in particular, citizens of Poland, Romania, Bulgaria, Serbia, Hungary, Croatia, and other countries that joined the EU from 2004 onward. Economists explain migrants’ return by the narrowing gap in wages and living standards, growing demand for workers in their own countries, and the overall ageing of the population of Central and Eastern Europe.
At the end of 2025, approximately 904,000 Romanian citizens and 840,000 Polish citizens were registered in Germany. Over the year, the number of Polish citizens declined by approximately 25,000, while the total number of EU citizens fell by 75,000.
In recent years, citizens of Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia, and Serbia have been actively recruited into the German labour market, including under special rules for the Western Balkans. However, their net migration has been steadily declining since 2022. In 2025, it amounted to approximately 39,000 people. IW warns that the potential for further recruitment of workers from the Balkans is also limited: the populations of most countries in the region are shrinking, while their own labour markets are facing staff shortages.
Against the backdrop of the overall decline, there are also opposing trends. Net migration of Vietnamese citizens increased from 10,000 people in 2023 to 19,000 in 2025.
At the same time, the number of residence permits issued to citizens of non-European countries for employment purposes increased by 33,000, or 13.6%, between 2023 and 2025. The number of permits related to education also rose by 33,000, or 15.3%. Thus, the inflow of students and skilled workers is currently declining significantly more slowly than humanitarian and intra-European migration.
The net outflow of German citizens increased from 74,000 people in 2023 to 97,000 in 2025. IW notes that negative migration among German citizens occurs regularly. However, growth of approximately 30% over two years may be an alarming signal, especially if qualified specialists are leaving the country.
At the same time, part of the statistics may relate to previously naturalised migrants who return to their countries of origin after obtaining German citizenship. It is difficult to assess the structure of this outflow precisely because the final destination country is not recorded for many of those leaving.
According to the Central Register of Foreigners, approximately 14.07 million foreign nationals were living in Germany at the end of 2025.
The largest groups were:
Approximately 5 million foreigners, or 35%, were citizens of EU member states. Another 4.6 million held the citizenship of other European countries, while approximately 4.5 million represented countries in Asia, Africa, the Americas, and other regions.
If not only foreign citizens but also migrants who obtained German citizenship and their direct descendants are taken into account, Germany had approximately 21.8 million people with an immigration history in 2025, representing 26.3% of the population. The largest groups by country of birth were people from Poland and Turkey, at approximately 1.5 million each; Ukraine, at 1.3 million; and Russia and Syria, at approximately 1 million each.
The decline in migration is occurring simultaneously with the mass retirement of the baby-boomer generation. According to a separate IW forecast, by 2036 the gap between older workers leaving the labour market and young people reaching working age could reach 4.3 million people. Economists consider a return to a mass inflow of workers from Eastern Europe unlikely. Germany will have to recruit specialists and workers with medium and lower levels of formal qualifications more actively from Asia, Africa, Latin America, and other regions.
IW proposes accelerating visa procedures, reducing the tax and social burden on workers, and extending simplified labour migration mechanisms similar to the existing rules for the Western Balkans to new countries. Thus, this is not about the complete cessation of migration but about a change in its structure. Germany is receiving fewer refugees and workers from neighbouring European countries, while the economy’s need for foreign labour continues to grow because of the ageing population.
