Ukraine can expect only about a third of the citizens who left the country due to the war to return, and risks facing a second wave of migration after the ban on men leaving the country is lifted.
This forecast was announced by Ella Libanova, director of the Institute of Demography and Quality of Life Issues at the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, during her speech at the 12th Kyiv International Economic Forum (KIEF) “People. Business. Economy. What’s Next?” in Kyiv on Monday.
According to her, in 2022, demographers estimated the potential return rate at 50%; however, as the war drags on, this figure has been steadily declining due to Ukrainians adapting to life abroad and the destruction within the country.
“If we look at the percentage of our women aged 20 to 64, 70% of them are employed. This is an absolutely incredible figure for the first wave of migrants. Therefore, if a woman is already working there, her child is attending school or university, and they have mastered the language, there are challenges with returning,” Libanova emphasized.
She also expressed concern about the risk of men migrating after the ban on leaving Ukraine is lifted, noting that the civilian sector may be unable to offer demobilized frontline soldiers a level of income comparable to military pay, which would prompt them to join their families who have already settled abroad.
Libanova clarified that as of July 1, 2026, there were 28.5 million people in territories controlled by Ukraine. According to Eurostat data and demographers’ estimates, as of June 30, 4.4 million Ukrainians were under temporary protection in European Union countries, with at least another 1.6 million outside the EU (primarily in Canada and the United Kingdom). At the same time, the exodus of predominantly young people has exacerbated the aging of the population within the country, as one-third of migrants are children and adolescents under 18, and only 6% are people aged 65 and older.
