Ukraine can expect only about a third of the citizens who left the country due to the war to return, and risks facing a second wave of migration after the ban on men leaving the country is lifted.
This forecast was announced by Ella Libanova, director of the Institute of Demography and Quality of Life Issues at the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, during her speech at the 12th Kyiv International Economic Forum (KIEF) “People. Business. Economy. What’s Next?” in Kyiv on Monday.
According to her, in 2022, demographers estimated the potential return rate at 50%; however, as the war drags on, this figure has been steadily declining due to Ukrainians adapting to life abroad and the destruction within the country.
“If we look at the percentage of our women aged 20 to 64, 70% of them are employed. This is an absolutely incredible figure for the first wave of migrants. Therefore, if a woman is already working there, her child is attending school or university, and they have mastered the language, there are challenges with returning,” Libanova emphasized.
She also expressed concern about the risk of men migrating after the ban on leaving Ukraine is lifted, noting that the civilian sector may be unable to offer demobilized frontline soldiers a level of income comparable to military pay, which would prompt them to join their families who have already settled abroad.
Libanova clarified that as of July 1, 2026, there were 28.5 million people in territories controlled by Ukraine. According to Eurostat data and demographers’ estimates, as of June 30, 4.4 million Ukrainians were under temporary protection in European Union countries, with at least another 1.6 million outside the EU (primarily in Canada and the United Kingdom). At the same time, the exodus of predominantly young people has exacerbated the aging of the population within the country, as one-third of migrants are children and adolescents under 18, and only 6% are people aged 65 and older.
Starting January 1, 2027, the UK will significantly reduce government support for the Homes for Ukraine program: monthly payments to British households providing housing to Ukrainians will drop from £350 to £100, according to The Guardian.
As a result, the so-called “thank you payment” will be reduced by 71.4%.
The new rules will apply to both current hosts already participating in Homes for Ukraine and new participants in the program.
At the same time, the British government is also cutting funding to local authorities responsible for implementing the program. The payment to municipalities per arriving Ukrainian will decrease from 5,900 to 3,300.
According to The Guardian, since the launch of Homes for Ukraine in March 2022, 181,000 of the approximately 234,000 Ukrainians who arrived in the UK after the start of the full-scale war have received support through the program. The British government has already allocated more than £1.81 billion to implement the program.
The funding cut is raising concerns among Ukrainians and host families about the program’s continued ability to provide free housing. Program participants interviewed by The Guardian said that the reduction in payments could force some hosts to withdraw from the program.
As one option for continued residency, the British government suggests that hosts could transition from their current status to a standard landlord-tenant relationship, under which Ukrainians would pay for their housing themselves.
This could be a particularly sensitive issue for elderly Ukrainians, people with disabilities, and low-income families, who would find it difficult to pay rent on their own in the British housing market.
It is important to note that the £350 is not rent paid to Ukrainians, but a government payment to the host household. Only one such payment may be made per address, regardless of the number of guests staying there.
For Ukrainians who have transitioned from the Homes for Ukraine visa to the Ukraine Permission Extension (UPE) program, payments to the host may be made for no more than 18 months from the date the guest first transitioned to UPE. After this period, the government’s “thank you payment” ceases.
Homes for Ukraine was launched by the British government on March 14, 2022. The program allowed UK residents to provide Ukrainians with housing in their homes or separate properties, while receiving a monthly compensation payment from the government.
Switzerland will maintain the temporary protection status (Status S) for Ukrainians who fled Ukraine due to Russia’s full-scale invasion until March 4, 2028, but will tighten the eligibility criteria for obtaining it.
“There are still no signs of long-term stabilization of the situation in Ukraine. Therefore, Status S for individuals from Ukraine seeking protection will be extended until March 4, 2028. Support measures for individuals with Status S (Program S) will also continue until that date,” the Swiss government stated in a Wednesday announcement on its website.
It is reported that the Federal Council made this decision at its meeting on August 19 following consultations with relevant stakeholders.
At the same time, it is noted that as of August 20, S protection status will be restricted for certain other groups of individuals—S protection status will now be granted only to those performing military duties they may have in Ukraine. “This new rule applies to all new applicants who submitted their applications on August 20 or later. It does not affect individuals who have already been granted S protection status,” the government statement notes.
As explained by the Swiss government, this decision was made to align with EU policy on this matter. “Switzerland has thus far closely coordinated its actions with the EU regarding S protection status and will continue to do so. On July 30, EU member states decided to extend temporary protection until March 4, 2028. At the same time, they decided to restrict access to temporary protection in the EU: as of July 31, temporary protection is granted only to those performing military duties in Ukraine. The requirement to perform military duties applies, in particular, to Ukrainian citizens of draft age, those in the reserves, and those who have voluntarily joined the armed forces. “Switzerland is not legally obligated to implement this decision adopted by the Council of the EU. However, the Federal Council believes that it is in Switzerland’s interest to align its practices with those of the EU,” the statement reads.
Should the situation in Ukraine stabilize sustainably, the Federal Council will review the status of protection for Ukrainians.
As previously reported, in late July, the European Union extended temporary protection for Ukrainians until March 4, 2028, with a new provision stipulating that newly arrived Ukrainian citizens subject to military service will be eligible for protection only if they have no issues with their military registration documents.
As of August 5, the European Union has changed the conditions for granting temporary protection to certain Ukrainian citizens subject to military service. New applicants will be required to confirm that they have complied with the requirements of Ukrainian law, have been exempted from military service, or have legally left the territory of Ukraine.
The relevant provisions are contained in EU Council Implementing Decision No. 2026/1912, adopted on July 30 and published in the Official Journal of the European Union on August 4, 2026. The decision entered into force the day after its publication.
The new restriction applies only to individuals who apply for temporary protection after the decision enters into force. Ukrainians who have already been granted this status in an EU country retain their rights, and the new rules do not apply to them.
To obtain temporary protection, a new applicant must confirm compliance with their military obligations in Ukraine. Evidence may include a passport with a stamp confirming lawful departure from the country, or a paper or electronic document confirming exemption from service or the fulfillment of relevant obligations. The decision will depend on the availability of documents confirming the legality of departure and the applicant’s status under Ukrainian law.
At the same time, the Council of the EU has extended temporary protection for Ukrainian citizens for another year—until March 4, 2028. Previously, the program was set to expire on March 4, 2027.
The Council of the EU explained that the new condition was introduced to simultaneously ensure protection for displaced persons and address Ukraine’s defense needs. EU member states agreed that, going forward, temporary protection should be granted only to new applicants who are fulfilling their military obligations in Ukraine.
Temporary protection grants Ukrainians the right to reside in EU countries, as well as access to the labor market, medical care, social security, housing, and education for their children.
According to the Council of the EU, as of the end of May 2026, approximately 4.38 million people who had left Ukraine after the start of the full-scale war were benefiting from temporary protection in the European Union.
