Zurich and Tokyo were the only two of the world’s 23 largest cities that UBS classified in 2026 as having a high risk of a housing real estate bubble.
According to the UBS Global Real Estate Bubble Index 2026, published on September 22, Zurich’s index stood at 1.69 and Tokyo’s at 1.54. UBS considers an index above 1.5 to indicate high risk.
The “elevated risk” category included Miami with an index of 1.41, Dubai at 1.16, Seoul at 1.13, Geneva at 1.12, and Lisbon at 1.04.
Moderate risk was recorded in Amsterdam at 0.95, Madrid at 0.86, Los Angeles at 0.69, Sydney (0.68), Frankfurt (0.64), Toronto (0.63), Vancouver (0.62), Munich and Hong Kong (both 0.61), Singapore (0.54), and Milan (0.50).
UBS classified Paris (0.33), London (0.32), New York (0.28), San Francisco (-0.02), and São Paulo (-0.24) as low-risk markets.
In Zurich, real housing prices have risen by nearly 140% over the past 20 years, while rental rates have increased by approximately 40% and household incomes by 30%. The ratio of purchase price to rental cost has reached 46 years—the highest figure among all cities studied by UBS.
In Tokyo, inflation-adjusted housing prices are now about 50% higher than they were seven years ago. Over the past year, they have risen by another 6% or so.
UBS notes that, on average, real housing prices in all surveyed cities rose by only 0.5% over the past year; however, a significant gap has emerged between individual markets.
The bank emphasizes that a high index reading does not predict an inevitable crash. A correction could occur due to changes in interest rates, investor sentiment, or a significant increase in housing supply.
