The energy shock caused by the U.S.-Iran war is likely to last longer than previously anticipated and extend beyond the oil sector, said Isabel Schnabel, a member of the Executive Board of the European Central Bank (ECB).
“At first, one might have assumed this was a short-term phenomenon, but, unfortunately, we have had to conclude that it is much more persistent,” Schnabel said at an event in Salsomaggiore Terme, Italy, on Thursday. “We’re not just talking about oil, but also diesel and natural gas.”
Her remarks reflect the ECB leadership’s ongoing concern about the consequences of the Middle East conflict, which has already caused inflation in the region to accelerate to a level significantly above the 2% target.
The year-over-year rate of consumer price inflation in the eurozone reached 3.2% in August, and analysts do not rule out it rising to 4% later this year, according to Bloomberg.
Expectations for further tightening of the ECB’s monetary policy have recently increased, with traders factoring in the likelihood of four interest rate hikes of 25 basis points (bp) by the regulator by the end of 2027.
“We’ve raised interest rates twice this year—first in June, then again in September—because we’re concerned about inflation. That’s why we had to act,” Schnabel said on Thursday.
The ECB raised all three key interest rates by 25 bps at its September meeting; the deposit rate now stands at 2.5% per annum.
