According to Experts.news, Lisbon was included in the UBS Global Real Estate Bubble Index for the first time and was immediately classified as a city at high risk of a housing price “bubble.”
The Portuguese capital’s index stood at 1.04 in 2026, according to a UBS study published on September 22. The bank classifies readings between 1.0 and 1.5 as “elevated risk.”
Over the past decade, real housing prices in Lisbon have risen by an average of nearly 7% annually—the highest rate among all 23 cities included in the study.
Since mid-2025 alone, housing prices, adjusted for inflation, have risen by an additional 10% or so.
UBS attributes the market’s long-term upswing, in particular, to policies aimed at attracting foreign investment and new residents.
However, analysts note that the factors that previously supported growth are gradually weakening. Lisbon has become one of Europe’s least affordable housing markets; rent growth has stalled, and demand is beginning to shift toward more affordable areas outside the city.
UBS cites Portugal’s shift toward a more selective immigration policy as an additional factor.
In terms of risk, Lisbon now ranks just behind Zurich, Tokyo, Miami, Dubai, Seoul, and Geneva. At the same time, it ranks ahead of Amsterdam, Madrid, Frankfurt, Munich, Paris, and London.
The study does not imply that UBS is forecasting a drop in prices in Lisbon. The index points to a buildup of imbalances between real estate prices, household incomes, rental rates, lending volumes, and other fundamental indicators.
Kyiv was not included in this study.
