According to Interfax-Ukraine, the Business Activity Expectations Index (BAEI) fell to 47.1 points in October 2026 from 48.2 points in September and was lower than the October 2025 figure (50.3 points), the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) reported on its website.
“Intensified attacks on energy, manufacturing, warehousing, and logistics infrastructure; the resumption of power outages; rising fuel prices; restrictions on product exports due to port blockades; and a shortage of skilled workers have hampered economic activity among enterprises,” the regulator noted.
At the same time, business activity was supported by steady consumer demand, a bountiful harvest, sufficient supply of goods, and the establishment of new logistics routes.
Among the sectors surveyed, the industrial enterprises index was the highest in October—48.0 points, compared to 51.0 in September and 48.8 in October 2025. Manufacturers expected a decline in new orders—particularly export orders—and in inventories of raw materials and supplies, while maintaining positive assessments of production volumes, although they anticipated a slowdown in their growth.
In the services sector, the sectoral index stood at 47.4 points, compared to 47.3 in September and 48.7 in October of last year. Companies expected a decline in the volume of services provided, new orders, and services in progress.
Retail businesses gave a subdued assessment of their current operations for the third consecutive month: the sectoral index rose to 46.8 points in October from 45.9 in September, but remained below the 54.3 points recorded in October 2025. Retail companies expected a further decline in sales, purchases of goods for resale, and inventories, as well as a decrease in profit margins.
The construction sector index was the lowest at 38.5 points, compared to 48.8 in September and 53.3 in October 2025. Their assessments were influenced by the continued suspension of government funding for road and infrastructure repairs, a shortage of skilled workers, and seasonal factors. After seven consecutive months of positive assessments, construction companies expected a significant decline in construction volumes and new orders, as well as in purchases of raw materials, supplies, and contractor services.
Most of the surveyed companies expected the rapid rise in prices for raw materials and supplies, as well as for their own products and services, to continue. Only companies in the service sector forecast a slowdown in the growth of both purchase prices and rates for their own services.
Companies across all sectors expected a reduction in the number of employees, with the most significant decline expected in the construction sector.
The survey was conducted from October 5 to 22, 2026, with 587 enterprises participating: 41.9% from manufacturing, 26.9% from the service sector, 25.0% from trade, and 6.1% from construction.
Among the respondents, 31.2% were large enterprises, 28.3% were medium-sized, and 40.5% were small. Export and import operations were conducted by 34.8% of respondents; 8.5% engaged only in exports; 17.5% engaged only in imports; and 39.2% did not engage in any foreign economic operations.
