The Business Expectations Index (BEI) for enterprises rose to 105.8% in January–March 2026, compared to 102.1% in October–December 2025, breaking a three-quarter downward trend, according to the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) based on the results of a survey of company executives.
“In Q1 2026, businesses expected a revival in business activity over the next 12 months. Respondents forecast growth in the volume of goods and services produced and strengthened their positive assessments of their own companies’ development. Inflation expectations remained unchanged, while exchange rate expectations strengthened slightly,” the regulator noted in a press release.
The NBU notes that military operations and their consequences remain the dominant factor (83%) limiting enterprises’ ability to increase production volumes. The shortage of skilled workers continues to have a significant impact. More than any other factor, the influence of excessively high energy prices was expected to intensify.
According to the published data, businesses have significantly improved their assessments of production volumes in Ukraine over the next 12 months: the balance of responses stood at 0.6% compared to -1.8% in Q4 2025. Optimistic sentiment was demonstrated by enterprises in the energy and water supply, agriculture, manufacturing, transportation, and communications sectors. Negative sentiment was demonstrated by enterprises in the trade sector, small businesses, as well as those engaged solely in import/export operations.
According to the survey results, business inflation expectations stabilized: projected annual inflation stood at 11.1%, unchanged from the previous quarter. At the same time, exchange rate expectations strengthened slightly—to 45.00 UAH/$1 (in Q4 2025—44.27 UAH/$1). Respondents also provided a forecast for the EUR exchange rate in 12 months for the first time, with an average value of 54.00 UAH/EUR.
The assessment of the current financial and economic condition of enterprises remains subdued, though the balance of responses improved slightly to -4.7% (-5.8% in Q4 2025). Expectations regarding changes in the financial condition of their own companies next year rose to 2.0% (in Q4 2025 – 0.8%). It is noted that transport and communications enterprises, as well as those in other sectors, have optimistic expectations, while representatives of construction and trade expect the future financial and economic condition of their own enterprises to remain at the current level.
Respondents are more confident in expecting growth in product sales volumes: the balance of responses rose to 14.5% (from 9.6% a quarter earlier), and for sales in foreign markets—from 11.7% in Q4 2025 to 15.8% in Q1 2026. Expectations regarding investment spending on machinery and equipment improved—from 7% to 12.8%—while expectations regarding construction work turned positive for the first time in a year—1.6% (Q4 2025 recorded -2.9%).
Companies attracting foreign investment maintained their expectations regarding growth in foreign investment volumes next year: the balance of responses was 11.6% (15.5% in Q4 2025). Expectations were highest among energy and water supply companies. The share of respondents planning to attract foreign investment in the next 12 months stood at 20.9%, compared to 21.5% in the previous survey.
In the labor market, the trend toward a softening of negative assessments regarding the number of employees continues: the balance of responses was -1.8%, compared to -3.8% in Q4 2025. Energy and water supply companies expected to increase their workforce. In contrast, respondents from agriculture, the extractive and processing industries, trade, and other sectors had negative expectations, with agriculture showing the most negative outlook.
Respondents raised their assessments of the need for borrowed funds in the near future: the balance of responses stood at 34.7% compared to 31.7% in Q4 2025. The share of respondents planning to take out bank loans remained virtually unchanged: 35.6% compared to 35.7% in Q4 2025. Those planning to take out loans traditionally prefer loans in the national currency—83.5% (80.9% in Q4 2025). Excessively high interest rates and the availability of other sources of financing remain the most significant obstacles to new loans—44% and 43.4%, respectively. Additionally, the influence of the factor “significant fluctuations in the hryvnia exchange rate against foreign currencies” has increased by 4.3 percentage points, to 17.8%.
The NBU notes that respondents slightly softened their assessments regarding the strictness of conditions for accessing bank loans: the balance of responses was 11.4% (11.6% in Q4 2025). 6.6% of respondents planned to raise funds abroad, compared to 7.1% in the previous quarter.
The quarterly survey was conducted from January 29 to February 27, 2026, among executives of 664 enterprises from 21 regions of Ukraine. An index value above 100 indicates a predominance of positive economic sentiment.
Among those surveyed, 21.1% were trading companies, 19.1% were in the manufacturing industry, 14.5% in agriculture, 13.9% in transportation and communications, 5.9% were in the extractive industry, 4.8% in energy and water supply, and 3.2% in construction. In terms of size, 30.4% of respondents were large enterprises, 37.7% were medium-sized, and 31.9% were small.
