In its November report, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) revised downward its forecasts for soybean production and exports from Ukraine in the 2026/27 marketing year (MY), while increasing its estimate for global trade in this crop.
This is according to data from the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, released on November 10, 2026.
According to the USDA, the forecast for global soybean production was reduced by 200,000 metric tons compared to the October estimate—to 442.5 million metric tons.
The main reasons for the revision were deteriorating harvest forecasts in Ukraine, South Africa, European Union countries, and Mexico.
This reduction is partially offset by an increase in expected soybean production in the United States and Colombia.
In particular, the forecast for U.S. production has been raised to 124.48 million metric tons due to improved expected yields.
Despite the decline in global soybean production, the USDA raised its forecast for international soybean trade by 550,000 metric tons—to 192.55 million metric tons.
The increase in global exports is expected primarily from the United States and Argentina.
At the same time, forecasts for soybean shipments from Ukraine, Uruguay, and South Africa have been revised downward.
According to the USDA’s estimates, U.S. exporters could ship 46.81 million metric tons of soybeans to foreign markets, while Argentine exporters could ship 6.75 million metric tons.
Brazil remains the world’s largest exporter, with a projected shipment volume of 118 million metric tons.
At the same time, the U.S. agency expects an increase in demand for soybean processing, particularly in Algeria, Colombia, Thailand, and Japan.
The forecast for global ending soybean stocks in the 2026/27 marketing year has been reduced by 800,000 metric tons to 123.5 million metric tons, primarily due to lower-than-expected stocks in the United States and Argentina.
Overall, the USDA estimates global production of all oilseeds at 721.9 million metric tons, which is 300,000 metric tons less than the October forecast.
The reduction in production estimates for soybeans, sunflowers, and some other oilseeds is partially offset by an increase in the projected rapeseed harvest.
For Ukraine’s agricultural sector, soybeans are an important export and oilseed crop used to produce soybean oil, meal, and feed products.
Changes in the USDA’s forecasts are significant for both soybean exporters and Ukrainian processing enterprises that purchase raw materials to produce higher-value-added products.
However, the text of the USDA’s November report does not provide specific figures for the revision of soybean production and exports for Ukraine specifically; therefore, it is impossible to assess the extent of the reduction based on this part of the document.
Source: USDA, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, November 10, 2026, pp. 2–3 and 28 (PDF).
