The US dollar-to-euro exchange rate at the end of 2026 will be $1.16/EUR1; the Cabinet of Ministers approved this updated estimate in the draft amendments to Ukraine’s state budget (No. 15224), whereas it had previously projected it at $1.08/EUR1.
As noted in the explanatory note to the draft, these changes have affected the assessment of the maximum levels of public debt: it will decrease by only UAH 332.2 billion, although financing of the state budget through debt operations will be reduced by UAH 651.5 billion thanks to the attraction of €13.2 billion in new budgetary support from the European Union under the Ukraine Support Loan.
According to the draft, it is proposed to set the public debt ceiling at the end of this year at 10 trillion 145. 6 billion UAH and the ceiling for state-guaranteed debt at 464.6 billion UAH, with budget revenues of 5 trillion 195.9 billion UAH and expenditures of 6 trillion 407.1 billion UAH.
As reported, in the calculations for Ukraine’s 2026 state budget, the government for the first time included a separate indicator for the projected average annual euro-to-hryvnia exchange rate—49.4 UAH/EUR1—in addition to the traditional average annual dollar exchange rate, which the Cabinet of Ministers expects to be 45.7 UAH/$1 this year.
In recent years, the share of euro-denominated obligations in Ukraine’s national debt has grown significantly, as the EU has become Ukraine’s main donor, while financial support from the U.S. has declined.
Public and state-guaranteed debt for the first quarter of 2026 increased by 190.4 billion UAH, or 2.1%, to 9.233 trillion UAH, but decreased by $2.5 billion, or 1.2%, to $210.8 billion in dollar terms.
The share of debt in euros as of the end of March this year was 44.08%, while in dollars it was 22.74%, in hryvnia 20.94%, and in IMF Special Drawing Rights (SDR) 9.12%.
In its updated April Inflation Report, the National Bank of Ukraine projects an average annual dollar-to-euro exchange rate of $1.18/EUR1, which corresponds to the current rate, compared to $1.13/EUR1 in 2025.
The official hryvnia-to-dollar exchange rate currently stands at 43.8033 UAH/$1, and the hryvnia-to-euro rate at 51.5433 UAH/$1.
