Citizens of Ukraine who left for the EU countries after the full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation, evaluate online public services in Ukraine much better (71%) than in the EU countries (16%).
As noted in the results of the “All-European survey of Ukrainians in Europe”, conducted by the sociological group “Rating” on July 4-11, financial and banking services in Ukraine will also significantly benefit (70% vs. 14% in the EU). Ukrainians also assessed the sphere of medicine better in Ukraine than in Europe: both the availability of medical services (71% vs. 21%) and their quality (60% vs. 25%).
Preschool and school education was better in Ukraine (42%) than in the EU (35%), higher education – on the contrary: slightly better in the EU (43%) than in Ukraine (32%). Ukrainian students of European universities agree more than others that higher education is better in the EU.
The absolute majority of Ukrainians surveyed agreed that public transportation is much better in the EU (77%) than in Ukraine (14%). The opinion is similar regarding European roads, which are considered better there (85%) than in Ukraine (5%). But respondents consider housing in Ukraine more affordable (57%) than in the EU (22%).
According to Ukrainians, Ukraine has a much better beauty industry than the EU (85% vs. 5%), as well as cafes and restaurants (60% vs. 16%), postal and delivery services (54% vs. 25%), online shopping (51% vs. 22%), but with regard to retail chains and stores, opinions are divided: 42% consider them the best in Ukraine, 36% – in the EU.
Ukraine loses a lot to European countries in the level of corruption, however, in terms of bureaucracy and taxation rates, at home, according to the majority, more favorable climate than in the EU. 84% of respondents believe that the level of corruption in Ukraine is higher than in the EU (3%), at the same time the level of bureaucracy is higher in the EU than in Ukraine (50% vs. 25%). Also, according to the respondents, the level of taxation is higher in Europe (59%) than in Ukraine (16%). However, by the level of economic freedom Ukraine (25%) is inferior to Europe (52%), as well as by the level of income (3% vs. 87%).
87% of respondents assessed opportunities in the EU as a whole as higher than in Ukraine, especially in income (87% vs. 3%), social security (75% vs. 15%), protection of rights and freedoms of citizens (67% vs. 19%), opportunities to live comfortably (60% vs. 26%), to find a job (54% vs. 30%). According to the respondents, it is possible to succeed both in the EU (40%) and in Ukraine (41%), but doing business is still somewhat better in Ukraine (45%) than in the EU (34%).
4% of Ukrainians have bribed an official in the host country (most often in southern Europe), the same number refused to answer.
The study anonymously interviewed 2116 Ukrainians aged 18 and older who found temporary asylum in 31 European countries after February 24, 2022 using the CAWI (Computer Assisted Web Interviewing) method. Results are weighted using current UNHC (United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees) data. The study’s representativeness error at a confidence level of 0.95: no more than 3.2%.
Stably high interest rates in the world’s largest economies mean that global economic growth is likely to slow in 2024 after this year’s rate of recovery exceeded expectations, the Financial Times writes, citing the opinion of economists.
Thus, according to the forecast of the consulting company Consensus Economics, in 2024 GDP will grow by 2.1% compared to 2.4% expected in the economy this year. Meanwhile, the estimate for 2023 was raised from the 1.4% assumed at the beginning of the year due to unexpectedly strong consumer demand and labor market.
Capital Economics senior global economist Simon Macadam also believes that the expected slowdown in economic growth next year will be partly due to a more substantial rebound in 2023. However, he added that economists “have actually become more pessimistic about the outlook for 2024”.
This is due to beliefs that persistently strong demand will keep inflation higher for longer, pushing advanced economy Central Banks to keep rates high throughout the year.
“Demand is barely weakening, the labor market remains strong, and wages continue to rise,” notes Citi Chief Economist Nathan Sheets. – Some of the weakening in the economy (which was expected this year – IF-U) is being carried over to 2024.” In many countries, including the U.S., “there will be a recession, it will just come later,” he predicts.
Until a few months ago, the Federal Reserve was expected to start cutting rates this year. But the resilience of the U.S. economy indicates there is a small possibility that the Fed could raise borrowing costs by another quarter-point in September, to 5.5-5.75% per annum. And economists now expect the first rate cut to occur next spring.
The high probability that the U.S. economy will avoid recession this year “means the Fed will hold rates higher longer to fully suppress inflation, leading to slower growth in 2024,” according to Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics.
On average, economists forecast the U.S. economy to rebound 0.6% in 2024 after expanding 1.9% at the end of this year.
Europe’s economies have also performed “somewhat better than expected” this year, with the exception of Germany, meaning the European Central Bank and the Bank of England are also likely to keep rates on hold for longer, Zandi said.
The ECB raised its deposit rate from minus 0.5% per annum in June 2022 to the current 3.75% and is not expected to cut it for most of next year. The Bank of England is forecast to increase its cost of borrowing by a further half a percent to 5.75% by the end of this year and is unlikely to start cutting it until the second half of 2024.
Christian Keller, head of economic research at Barclays, notes that the negative investor sentiment towards 2024 is also due to a slowdown in China’s GDP growth after a significant acceleration following the removal of anti-Kowitz restrictions.
Experts Club Research Project and Maxim Urakin recently released an analytical video on the Ukrainian and global economies
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U.S. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken will announce more than $1 billion in new aid for Ukraine during his visit to Kyiv on Wednesday, September 6, CNN reports, citing a senior State Department official.
According to CNN, the US Secretary of State arrived in Kyiv on Wednesday to meet with key Ukrainian officials, including President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba.
The TV channel also notes that Blinken’s visit is an opportunity for the United States and Ukraine to unite ahead of the UN General Assembly (UNGA) later this month, a senior State Department official traveling with Blinken told reporters.
“The Ukrainians have an important mission in New York – to continue to explain to their allies and partners around the world what’s going on and their continued need for support. And it is important for us to continue to lead this global effort to support them. Being able to consult and agree before we get to New York is very, very important,” the official said.
According to media reports, Blinken arrived in Kyiv on Wednesday morning after an overnight train ride from Poland. This is his third visit to the Ukrainian capital since Russia’s full-scale invasion.
Ukraine may file a lawsuit against Brussels and European Union member states at the World Trade Organization (WTO) if they do not lift restrictions on the export of its agricultural products after September 15, Taras Kachka, Deputy Minister of Economy and Trade Representative of Ukraine, told Politico.
“With full respect and gratitude to Poland, if any bans are imposed after September 15, Ukraine will file a lawsuit against Poland and the EU at the World Trade Organization,” he said.
Ukraine’s trade representative insists that these restrictions violate the Free Trade Agreement, which has been in place between Ukraine and the EU since 2014.
“We do not intend to take immediate retaliatory measures, given the spirit of friendship and solidarity between Ukraine and the EU,” Kachka explained, adding that a systemic threat to Ukrainian interests would force Ukraine to take the case to the WTO.
In addition, Kachka told the newspaper that there is no evidence of price deviations or a significant increase in grain supplies to justify the extension of import restrictions. Kyiv has engaged in “constructive cooperation” with the European Commission, five EU member states, and Moldova, a key transit hub for Ukrainian exports to the EU.
“We have received significant support for ensuring better transit of goods through the territory of neighboring member states, including Poland and Hungary. In the last two months, we have made significant progress in cooperation with Romania on the transportation of goods from Ukraine,” Kachka said.
As reported, Deputy Head of the Presidential Office Ihor Zhovkva said in an interview with Interfax-Ukraine that if Brussels fails to take action against Poland, Hungary, Bulgaria, Slovakia and Romania, which violate the trade agreement, Kyiv “reserves the choice of legal mechanisms for response.”
Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry noted that Kyiv reserves the right to initiate arbitration proceedings under the Association Agreement with the EU or to apply to the WTO.
Source: https://www.politico.eu/article/ukraine-eu-wto-poland-hungary-grain-curbs/
Population structure of Ukraine as of 06.06.2023 (estimated data)
Source: Open4Business.com.ua and experts.news
In January-June 2023, Ukrainian Insurance Group Insurance Company (Kyiv) collected UAH 752.166 million in net premiums, which is 1.64% less than in the same period a year earlier, and UAH 1.466 billion in gross premiums (+10.85%), according to the website of the rating agency Standard-Rating, which affirmed the company’s financial strength rating/credit rating at uaAA+ for the reporting period.
At the same time, the insurance company’s revenues from individuals increased by 14.30% to UAH 965.065 million, and from reinsurers – by 2.65 times, to UAH 4.910 million. In the first half of 2023, the share of individuals in the company’s gross premiums amounted to 65.84%, and the share of reinsurers – 0.33%.
Insurance payments sent to reinsurers in the first half of 2023 increased by 27.96% to UAH 713.715 million compared to the same period in 2022. The participation ratio of reinsurance companies in insurance premiums increased by 6.51 p.p. to 48.69%.
The volume of insurance payments and reimbursements made by USG in the first half of 2023 amounted to UAH 702.471 million, which is more than twice the volume of payments and reimbursements in the first half of 2022, and the claims ratio increased to 47.92%.
According to the results of the first six months of 2023, the company received a negative financial result from operating activities in the amount of UAH 98.056 million, the insurer’s net loss amounted to UAH 20.288 million (net profit of UAH 73.8 million for 6 months of 2022).
The agency notes that the financial results were affected, among other things, by a significant increase in insurance payments and reimbursements, as well as expenses for the formation of reserves.
As of June 30, 2023, the insurer’s assets increased by 8.89% to UAH 3.743 billion, equity decreased by 3.15% to UAH 623.51 million, liabilities increased by 11.66% to UAH 3.120 billion, cash and cash equivalents decreased by 20.77% to UAH 1.161 billion.
As of July 1, 2023, the insurer made financial investments in the amount of UAH 641.657 million, consisting of government bonds, government bonds and deposits with banks with high credit ratings. The availability of such investments has a positive impact on the provision of USG with liquid assets, which cover 57.78% of the insurer’s liabilities.
As reported, the controlling shareholder of USG Insurance Group is Vienna Insurance Group, an international insurance group headquartered in Austria, represented by 50 companies in 30 countries and a leader in the insurance market of Central and Eastern Europe.
