2022-2024 goods trade balance forecast (USD billion)
NBU
Oil prices continue to fall Thursday morning on weakening geopolitical tensions.
The cost of January futures for Brent on London’s ICE Futures Exchange stood at $91.97 a barrel by 7:22 a.m. Kk, down $0.89 (0.96%) from the previous session’s closing price. At the close of trading on Wednesday those contracts have fallen by $1 (1.1%) to $92.86 per barrel.
The price of WTI futures for December at electronic trades on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) is $84.53 per barrel by that time, down $1.06 (1.24%) from the previous session. The day before, the contract fell $1.33 (1.5%) to $85.59 a barrel.
“Prices remain in negative territory as the market has largely ignored various geopolitical factors like Russian-related tensions and focused on more bearish factors such as signals of weakness in the Chinese economy,” Kpler senior oil analyst Matt Smith wrote.
Even the U.S. Department of Energy’s data, released the day before, failed to support the oil market, according to which the country’s commercial oil reserves fell by 5.4 million barrels last week, while analysts had expected a more moderate decline of 1.9 million barrels.
Gasoline inventories increased by 2.21 million barrels and distillates by 1.12 million barrels. Experts were expecting an increase in gasoline stocks by 200 thousand barrels and a decrease in distillate stocks by 1 million barrels.
The President of the European Council, Charles Michel, supported the decision of the participants of the Black Sea Grain Initiative to extend the deal.
“I applaud the expansion of the Black Sea Grain Initiative. With 10 million tonnes of grain already exported from Ukraine through this initiative, this is good news for a world in dire need of access to grain and fertilizer,” Michel tweeted on Thursday.
At the same time, he highly appreciated the constant efforts of the United Nations in this direction, as well as its Secretary General António Guterres personally.
Earlier, Minister of Infrastructure of Ukraine Oleksandr Kubrakov said that the initiative for the safe transportation of agricultural products by the Black Sea was extended for another 120 days, the UN and Turkey remained guarantors of implementation.
According to Guterres, the grain initiative is needed to reduce food and fertilizer prices, as well as to prevent a global food crisis. He also stressed that the UN “is committed to work to remove obstacles to the export of food and fertilizers from Russia.”
In Istanbul on July 22, with the participation of the UN, Russia, Turkey and Ukraine, two documents were signed on the creation of a corridor for the export of grain from three ports on Ukrainian territory – Chornomorsk, Odessa and Yuzhny.
The dollar rises moderately against the euro and the pound sterling, but weakly depreciates against the yen as market participants assess statements by members of the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed).
The ICE-calculated index showing the U.S. dollar against six currencies (euro, Swiss franc, yen, Canadian dollar, pound sterling and the Swedish krona) is up 0.16%, while the broader WSJ Dollar Index is up 0.14%.
The Fed will raise the benchmark interest rate by at least another 1 percentage point or more, and only after that could it take a pause, Mary Daley, head of the Federal Reserve Bank (FRB) of San Francisco, said the night before. A rate range of 4.75-5.25 percent “is a reasonable level to consider,” she told CNBC.
Kansas City Fed Governor Esther George also said the Fed should not stop raising rates too soon, and added that the goal of achieving a “soft landing” could be difficult.
The Fed has raised the benchmark interest rate by 3.75 percentage points (pp) in less than a year, increasing it by 0.75 pp at once in the last four meetings. The rate is currently at 3.75-4% per annum, and the market expects it to rise by 50 bps in December.
By 8:52 Moscow time the euro/dollar pair is trading at $1.0378 versus $1.0396 at the close of Wednesday’s session and the euro is losing about 0.2%.
The dollar/yen exchange rate is down 0.1% at 139.39 yen, down from 139.54 yen at the end of last session.
The pound is getting cheaper by 0.2% and trades at $1.1895 against $1.1915 the day before.
On Thursday the market is waiting for the final data on October inflation in the euro area and data on the construction of new houses in the USA.
Mining enterprises of Ukraine in January-October of this year reduced the export of iron ore raw materials (IORM) in kind by 38.9% compared to the same period last year – up to 22 million 436.474 thousand tons.
According to statistics released by the State Customs Service (STS), over the specified period, foreign exchange earnings from the export of iron ore decreased by 56.2% – to $2 billion 768.743 million.
During the specified period, IORM was imported to Ukraine for $42 thousand in a total volume of 74 tons, while in January-October 2021 – for $160 thousand in a total volume of 1.175 thousand tons.
As reported, Ukraine in 2021 reduced the export of iron ore raw materials (IORM) in physical terms by 4.2% compared to 2020 – up to 44 million 357.727 thousand tons, but increased revenue by 62.8% – up to $6 billion 899.816 million The export of iron ore was carried out mainly to China (41.90% of supplies in monetary terms), the Czech Republic (9.65%) and Poland (7.99%).
Last year, IORM was imported to Ukraine for $184 thousand in a total volume of 1.202 thousand tons, while in 2020 123 tons of iron ore for $75 thousand were imported. Imports for 2021 were carried out from Egypt (55.98%), the Netherlands ( 21.2%) and Poland (7.07%).
The agro-industrial group Kernel is negotiating with its creditors to defer the repayment of debt obligations that have grown to a record high since the beginning of the Russian military invasion of Ukraine – up to $1.95 billion as of June 30, 2022, which is 37% more than its amount as of the same date in 2021 of the year.
According to a financial report on the holding’s website on Wednesday night, this increase in debt was mainly due to a sharp increase in short-term debt raised to replenish working capital in the winter of 2021-2022 and outstanding by the summer of 2022 due to Russian aggression and related with it negative factors.
According to the group of companies, its net debt obligations by June 30, 2022 increased by 1.8 times compared to the same date last year – to $ 1.49 billion, and the ratio of debt to EBITDA jumped to a record five-year ratio of 6.8x compared to 1.0x in 2021.
“The Russian invasion began just at the peak of our working capital cycle, when we had the highest seasonal debt level of $1.95 billion in the history of the company and an all-time high inventory of $0.9 billion. Fortunately, we entered into this is a turbulent time in a relatively good financial condition, so we continued to service our debt, but we were forced to negotiate a deferral of repayment of the principal debt to creditors,” the holding said in a statement.
Kernel recalled that the first such negotiations allowed it to defer the repayment of the principal amount of the debt until September 30, 2022, and now it is negotiating to extend the delay until June 30, 2023.
“As of the day of this report, we received refusals to extend the maturity of the principal debt in the amount of $627 million with creditors until June 30, 2023. For debt obligations totaling $246 million, we are in the process of issuing such refusals,” the holding emphasized in the report .
Kernel specified that in December 2021 it completed the early redemption of Eurobonds for $213 million, reducing the total amount of Eurobonds maturing in 2022 to $595 million.
“Due to the fact that the group did not have an unconditional right to defer settlements of 12 months or more in relation to its banking services as at June 30, 2022, $198 million of long-term bank loan balances and $595 million of Eurobonds outstanding were reclassified as short-term as of June 30, 2022,” the holding said in a statement.
Also, according to him, by June 30, 2022, Kernel pledged 370,000 government bonds of Ukraine in the amount of $6.08 million as collateral for previously taken short-term loans.
“While we have completed one of the most difficult periods in our history, the prospects for the future remain unclear and will greatly depend on the outcome of the war in Ukraine and the group’s ability to export agricultural products through the Black Sea ports of Ukraine,” the holding stated.
Before the war, Kernel ranked first in the world in the production of sunflower oil (about 7% of world production) and its export (about 12%), and was also the largest producer and seller of bottled sunflower oil in Ukraine. In addition, the company was engaged in the cultivation of other agricultural products and their sale.
The largest co-owner of Kernel through Namsen Ltd. is Ukrainian businessman Andrey Verevsky with a share of 39.3%.
