The world’s leading marketing companies are worsening their forecasts for the growth of the advertising market on fears of a downturn in the global economy, writes The Wall Street Journal.
Global advertising revenue will increase 4.8% in 2023 to $833 billion, Magna, a Mediabrands company, forecast. In June, the company expected growth of 6.3%.
In 2022, Magna expects growth of 6.6%, mainly due to heavy campaign spending in the U.S. In June, analysts predicted a 9.2% jump in revenue.
“The economy is slowing more than expected six months ago,” said Magna Executive President Vincent Letang. – “We have lowered our forecasts for virtually all advertising categories for next year, but we still expect the market to stabilize rather than contract.
Experts predict that in consumer products and financial services, advertising budgets next year will remain about the same as this year, while spending on entertainment, travel and gambling advertising may increase due to the easing of regulatory requirements. They also expect a recovery in advertising spending in the automotive sector.
Another forecast from GroupM, a conglomerate of WPP PLC, expects ad spending to grow 5.9% in 2023 versus the 6.4% expected in June. In 2022, GroupM predicts advertising spending, excluding political campaigns, will increase 6.5%, up from 8.4% in June.
“Perhaps we’re feeling some slowdown at the end of this year and are feeling a little more pessimistic, even though we still expect growth, especially in digital advertising,” said GroupM director Kate Scott-Dawkins.
Oil prices moved lower on Wednesday after an initial rise, with Brent approaching its lowest since the beginning of this year and WTI near its lowest since late last year.
The price of February Brent crude futures on London’s ICE Futures exchange stands at $78.78 a barrel by 1:19 p.m. Wednesday, down $0.57 (0.72%) from the previous session’s closing price. At one point in the session, Brent had fallen to its lowest level since January 3.
The price of WTI crude futures for January on the electronic trading of the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) fell by that time by $0.47 (0.63%), to $73.78 a barrel. At a certain point in trading, the price of WTI fell to its lowest level since December 2021.
The day before, oil had fallen substantially on growing fears of a downturn in the global economy and, consequently, a decline in demand for oil in 2023.
“There’s still a lot of uncertainty in the markets today,” said Rystad Energy senior vice president Claudio Galimberti.
Both Brent and WTI have lost more than 9% in the past three sessions, despite the easing of quarantine restrictions in China and the entry into force of a European embargo on Russian oil, as well as initiatives to impose a price ceiling on oil from Russia.
Centravis Production Ukraine PJSC, part of Centravis Holding Ltd, on the results of January-November of this year reduced the production of stainless tubes by 34,2% compared to the same period of last year – down to 10,600 tons from 16,100 tons.
According to the company’s press release on Wednesday, the company’s production in January-November 2022 was nearly 66% of the previous year’s pre-war level, while in monetary terms the company maintained revenue at 90%.
“Despite the difficult situation in the country and Nikopol, we retained the team, customers and production. None of us prepared for wartime operations, but today everyone has to contribute to the victory. Considering all circumstances, we are proud of our results and will continue to work to support the economy and the state,” Centravis General Director Yuriy Atanasov said, who is quoted by the press service.
The press release reminds that the company is among ten largest manufacturers of seamless stainless tubes in the world. According to the results of 2021 production volume of the company was 19,43 thousand tons. Centravis production is concentrated in Nikopol, which has been under almost daily fire from Russian troops since July this year.
At the same time, the company manages to maintain production and fulfill orders of customers from many countries. As of November, the number of employees exceeds 1,400, which corresponds to the pre-war level.
Centravis employees’ average salary is 7,070 hryvnias, 11 percent higher than the industry average.
“We are looking for opportunities, not causes. We think about where to find raw materials, how to improve logistics and speed up delivery to customers, how to produce better pipes. That’s what we’re influencing. We adapt, we learn, we go to exhibitions, we communicate with customers, we are constantly on the move. Our productivity is up about 17% over last year. The company has become more stable and cohesive, and we believe that we can get through this year normally and do a lot next year,” Atanasov emphasized.
Last year the company implemented a number of large-scale orders for such global companies as Benteler Automotive, LINSTER Edelstahlhandel, Rohr Mertel, Buhlmann Group, Webco, MRC. “Centravis works with such famous automobile brands as BMW, Volkswagen, General Motors. Supplies pipes for nuclear power plants, fresh water storage facilities, the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER) and other landmark projects.
“Centravis is one of the world’s largest manufacturers of seamless stainless steel pipes, founded in 2000. Its production facilities are located in Nikopol (Dnepropetrovsk region). It ranks among top-10 world players and supplies pipes to more than 70 countries from different regions of the world.
Holding Centravis Ltd was created on the base of Nikopol Stainless Tube Works CJSC, service and trading companies of Yuvis Industrial and Commercial Enterprise Ltd. Its shareholders are members of the Atanasov family.
Centravis Ltd. owns 100% of shares of Centravis Production Ukraine PJSC.
Ports of “Big Odessa” on Wednesday shipped 149.3 thousand tons of agricultural products in the framework of the “Grain Initiative”.
“Today four ships left the ports of Big Odessa, which will deliver 149.3 thousand tons of agricultural products to the countries of Asia and Europe. In particular, the bulk carrier SUGAR with Ukrainian vegetable oil for India”, – noted in the message of the Ministry of Infrastructure of Ukraine.
In the ports involved in the “Grain Initiative” there are 20 vessels under handling. They load 613.2 thousand tons of Ukrainian agricultural products.
In addition, three more vessels are moving along the “Grain Corridor” for the loading of 162.4 thousand tons of agricultural products.
Since August 1, 529 ships left the ports of “Big Odessa”, which exported 13.2 million tons of Ukrainian food products to Asia, Europe and Africa.
Primary registrations of new buses in Ukraine in November increased by 11.7% as compared to October this year, but decreased by 25.3% as compared to November 2021, according to statistics of Ukravtoprom association.
According to the statistics published on the Association’s website, Ataman buses (made by Cherkasy Bus) have regained the leadership in this segment, with 55 vehicles registered, versus 11 in October 2022 (fourth place in the ranking) and 44 vehicles in November last year, when the brand was also in the lead.
Second place went to Citroen with 26 buses, with an increase in sales of 2 units against October of this year and 22 units – against November last year, when it was the seventh place in the rating.
The leader of the previous accounting month, buses Etalon (made by Chernihiv Autoplant) in November is finishing the top three with 19 vehicles against 40 in October 2022. Next comes Ford (8 buses) and ZAZ (6 cars). There are also two Ruta buses and one each for Jac and Temsa.
The statistics of Ukrautoprom does not include buses (including school buses), which are purchased at the expense of the state and local budgets.
“On Wednesday, Ukravtoprom also published information on imports of buses (new and used) to Ukraine in January-September this year, according to which 1021 buses were imported (by 16% less than a year before), and their total customs value amounted to $30.7 million. 86% of imports were used vehicles.
The leader in supplies of buses for nine months was Germany – 388 units, second place was occupied by Poland – 126 units, the third Turkey with 107 buses. Also in the top five largest suppliers were Belgium and Sweden, which imported 98 and 66 units of this type of transport respectively.
Forecast of dynamics of changes in GDP in % for 2022-2024 in relation to previous period
NBU
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