In the first half of 2025, the Ukrainian economy demonstrates fragile but positive growth, despite the difficult external environment and high dependence on international financial support. This is stated in an analytical review published by the Experts Club information and analytical center on YouTube.
“We are seeing a cautious but still positive signal: Ukraine’s economy is growing, albeit very slowly. The National Bank forecasts GDP growth of 2.5-3.1% in 2025. This is above the survival line, but not enough for a full recovery,” said Maksym Urakin, PhD in Economics and founder of Experts Club.
“Inflation remains at 12-13%, which continues to reduce the purchasing power of the population. Despite the NBU’s moderate monetary policy, the pressure on households remains,” the economist explained.
The situation in foreign trade also remains alarming. In May 2025, the trade deficit in goods and services reached $4.1 billion. Imports amounted to $7 billion, while exports were only $3.4 billion. Trade in services also has a negative balance – $1.8 billion against $1.3 billion.
“The structure of exports shows changes. Supplies of pharmaceuticals, wood and live animals are growing, but grain exports have fallen by almost a quarter. And this is even before the loss of possible EUR 3.5 billion in revenues due to the end of EU customs privileges,” emphasizes Urakin.
At the same time, Ukraine’s international reserves have increased – as of June 1, they amounted to $44.54 billion. This is more than at the end of 2024, although it is 4.6% less than in April. But the public debt, according to Urakin, remains critically high – $179.2 billion (about 94% of GDP), of which more than $134 billion are external liabilities.
“The reserves are currently sufficient to stabilize the exchange rate and payments. But this is a resource that cannot be exhausted indefinitely. Ukraine remains critically dependent on international assistance – from the IMF, the EU and other partners,” he emphasized.
The global economy, according to the IMF and the World Bank, is expected to show the slowest growth in the last decade in 2025, at 2.3-2.8%. Inflationary pressures, trade disputes, and geopolitical instability are limiting the potential for global recovery. The Bank for International Settlements describes the situation as a “turning point” due to protectionism, declining productivity, and demographic risks.
The United States recorded its first decline in GDP since 2022, down 0.5% year-on-year in the first quarter. The main reasons are weakening consumer demand and declining exports. However, the Atlanta Fed predicts a recovery – 2.5% growth in the second quarter. PCE inflation is 3.1%, core inflation is 2.6%, and the Fed’s key policy rate remains at 5.25-5.5%.
In China, the economy grew by 5.4% in the first quarter. However, the official PMI in June remained below the 50 mark (49.7), indicating instability in the industry. Meanwhile, the private Caixin PMI exceeded 50 for the first time in several months.
The Eurozone is showing signs of stabilization: in the first quarter, GDP grew by 0.6% y-o-y, inflation in June was exactly 2%, i.e. within the ECB’s target. Manufacturing indices are also improving. Germany is still feeling the effects of the last recession. The GDP growth forecast is only 0.3-0.4%, although the manufacturing PMI has exceeded 50 for the first time since 2022. Retail trade, however, remains weak.
The UK surprised with positive dynamics – 0.7% growth in the first quarter, the highest among the G7. Inflation in May was 3.4%, with the Bank of England’s key policy rate at 4.25%.
India continues to lead the way in terms of growth – 7.4% in the first quarter. Inflation was only 2.82%. The central bank cut its key policy rate to 5.5% in response to lower inflationary pressures.
Brazil is expected to grow at 2.1-2.4%, but inflation in May was 5.32%. This forced the regulator to maintain the high Selic rate of 15%.
Japan is showing the first signs of recovery. The PMI in industry reached 50.1, and the composite PMI – 51.4. Inflation in services is 3.3%, and the Bank of Japan may raise rates as early as 2026.
“The global economy is in a turning point. The US and Europe are stagnating, while China is recovering cautiously. Germany and the UK are showing weak but stable growth. India remains the engine of global development. For Ukraine, the main thing is not to lose momentum, maintain access to international financing and adapt to the new conditions of global trade,” summarized Maksym Urakin.
The material was prepared based on the analytical review by Experts Club. Watch the video for more details at the link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kQsH3lUvMKo&t
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Powers Place LLC, a co-owner of ATB Corporation, Gennadiy Butkevych, plans to gain control over Zhytomyr Investments LLC. The relevant issue of granting the company’s merger clearance is included in the draft agenda of the Antimonopoly Committee of Ukraine posted on its website.
According to Opendatabot, the owner of Zhytomyr Investments LLC is Cyprus-based Vensimars Management Limited, with Oksana Palytsia as the ultimate beneficiary.
City Estate Management LLC is listed as the owner of Power Place LLC, and Gennadiy Butkevych is the beneficiary.
As reported, in April 2025, Butkevych’s BGV Development company opened the first shopping center in its portfolio, Zhytomyr, in Zhytomyr.
BGV Group Management is an investment group founded in 2015 to create innovative and highly efficient businesses focused on the production of high value-added products. The company has five business areas, within which it develops projects in mining, energy efficiency, retail, development and education. The company’s founder Gennadiy Butkevich is also a co-owner of ATB Corporation.
Since 2022, BGV has been focusing on development, taking into account the priority of restoring and building new residential, commercial and other infrastructure facilities in Ukraine. In June 2024, a new company, BGV Development, was established as part of the group, which is engaged in development projects.
The Director-General of the International Organization for Migration (IOM), Amy Pope, said that Ukraine needs a plan to attract migrants to the country, even if a significant number of Ukrainian refugees return, she said at the Ukraine Recovery Conference (URC2025) in Rome, Italy.
“Ukraine needs a plan to attract migrants to the country.
Because even if we successfully convince Ukrainians to return home, I think we will still need millions of workers to rebuild Ukraine.
We need to provide legal and safe routes for migration into the country,” Pope said.
The Aurora Group opened its first Aurora store in Bucharest on Friday, July 11. This store is the 50th in Romania, according to the company’s press service, as reported by Interfax-Ukraine.
“Our business model, which combines a wide range of products, high-quality service, and affordable prices, has proven popular with both Ukrainian and European consumers. The opening in Bucharest is a testament to our customers’ trust and a significant step toward conquering the European market. We are proud to represent Ukrainian quality abroad and open up new opportunities for Ukrainian manufacturers on the international stage,” commented Taras Panasenko, co-owner of the Aurora group of companies.
The new Aurora store (Bucuresti, Calea Cringasi nr.29 sector 6) has a total area of 200 square meters and offers a compact store format with a wide range of products, where you can buy everything you need for your daily needs. For comfortable shopping, price checkers are located in the sales area for quick price verification by customers.
The press service noted that Aurora is successfully competing in the Romanian market, with a local customer loyalty index (NPS) even higher than in Ukraine—approximately 80 versus 60.
As reported, the first Aurora store in Romania opened in October 2023 in Suceava, marking the beginning of the company’s international expansion.
In 2024, a distribution center was opened in Bacău, which optimized logistics.
The expansion of the Aurora group of companies in Romania opens up new opportunities for both local and Ukrainian manufacturers. Today, more than 27 Ukrainian companies already export their products for sale in Aurora stores in Romania.
This is not only a stimulus for the growth of Ukrainian exports, but also a bridge to the international market for small and medium-sized businesses from Ukraine. Aurora is a national company with direct foreign investment from the Horizon Capital Fund, founded in 2011 by Lev Zhydenko,
Taras Panasenko, and Lesya Klymenko, with its head office located in Poltava. As of July 2025, the chain has more than 1,700 Aurora stores in Ukraine and 50 Aurora stores in Romania.
NovaSklo plans to start construction of a float glass plant in the Kyiv region in March 2026.
As NovaSklo CEO and founder of investment company EFI Group Igor Lisky told Interfax-Ukraine on the sidelines of the URC-2025 recovery conference, investments in the project amount to more than €240 million.
The project is being implemented with the support of UkraineInvest and the Ministry of Economy of Ukraine.
The project includes, in particular, the construction of a plant with a capacity of 24.8 million m2 of glass per year. The enterprise will reduce dependence on imports of flat glass and will produce products for export.
Liski noted that the project could pay for itself in 6-7 years.
He said that a memorandum had been signed on the sidelines of the conference between NovaSklo and three leading European equipment manufacturers – Horn Glass Industries AG (Germany), Zippe Industrieanlagen GmbH (Germany) and Bottero S.p.A. (Italy), which will be the main suppliers of technology and equipment.
According to Liska, NovaSklo has already secured a plot of land for production and purchased a license for sand extraction.
Commenting on the risks associated with the construction of an industrial facility in Ukraine, Liska noted that “this is an important symbolic project because it is a symbol of Ukraine’s recovery.”
“Broken glass and broken windows are always a symbol of decline and war. A new plant that produces high-quality glass is a symbol that we, Ukrainians, have a future, and we will rebuild Ukraine with the best glass and the best technology. We must do everything in our power to ensure that Ukraine has a different future,” he said.
Liski noted that the project is finalizing the signing of contracts with financial institutions for lending.
“This is a good margin project because all glass is currently imported, which involves high transportation costs. This project is efficient and has good margins. We think that the payback period will be 6-7 years,” he said.
Experts predict coffee prices to rise by up to 40% in 2025. The main reasons cited are drought in Brazil and abnormal rains in Vietnam, the largest coffee-producing countries, according to the FAO and the International Coffee Organization.
In 2024, the price of Arabica rose by 69%, reaching record levels and exceeding $4.30 per pound on the ICE exchange in early 2025. Drought in Brazil led to a 10-11% drop in harvest, causing a shortage, while in Vietnam, the harvest fell by 10-20% due to droughts and heavy rains. The International Coffee Organization warns that market stabilization should not be expected until 2026-2028.
Retail coffee prices are expected to rise by 10-20%, leading to higher prices in cafes and retail packaging. This will increase inflationary pressure, as rising coffee prices complement rising food prices. Experts note that producers will have to invest in drought-resistant varieties and new irrigation systems. There is also an increase in costs in the supply chain, including higher prices for fertilizers, logistics, and credit resources.
According to the FAO, global coffee production in 2023 amounted to about 11 million tons, of which Brazil accounted for 31%, Vietnam for 18%, and Indonesia for about 7%. Global coffee consumption is growing by about 2% annually and is estimated at 177 million bags per year.
According to open data, the leaders in per capita coffee consumption are Finland (about 12-13 kg per year), Norway (about 10 kg), Iceland (9.8 kg), Denmark (8.7 kg), the Netherlands (8.4 kg), Sweden (8.2 kg), Switzerland (7.9 kg), Belgium (6.8 kg), Luxembourg (6.5 kg), and Canada (6.5 kg).
Rising coffee prices in 2025 could pose a serious challenge for both producers and consumers, and will increase interest in sustainable production and expansion of supply in order to stabilize the market in the face of a changing climate.
