The fall of the Ukrainian economy in 2022 will be about 33% according to the baseline scenario, in which the war will last for another month and a half at the most, Alexander Pecheritsyn, a leading analyst at Raiffeisen Bank (Kyiv), said.
“If the war lasts until the end of the year, then (GDP) could fall as much as 45%,” he said at a zoom conference on Tuesday.
Pecheritsyn specified that this is the bank’s third forecast since the beginning of the war. According to him, the initial decline in the economy was estimated at about 15% based on previous fast-moving conflicts in the world, for example, in Georgia. Then, in March, the bank estimated a decline as low as 24%, taking into account the gross regional product and the map of hostilities. In particular, as part of this analysis, a 34% decrease in this year’s crop is expected.
Serhiy Kolodiy, Chief Manager for Macroeconomic Analysis at Raiffeisen Bank, recalled that in 2014-2015, the fall in GDP was approximately 25% compared with pre-war Ukraine (in official statistics, data are compared only for controlled territories).
Pecheritsyn added that in terms of GDP, the bank estimates a 39% drop in private consumption due to the emigration of 15% of the population, lower incomes and negative consumer expectations.
According to him, domestic investment, which is the most vulnerable component, will fall by half this year under the baseline scenario.
“On the positive side, production relocation programs have little effect, but on the scale of the total output, of course, it is small,” the analyst said.
Speaking about inflation, Pecheritsyn noted that the bank still maintains its forecast for this year at 17% after 10% in the past. He explained that the volume of purchases by the National Bank of military bonds in the amount of UAH 60 billion is still within the limits of controllable, in addition, state control over prices and the freezing of utility tariffs affect.
In general, speaking about the work of analysts during the war, Pecheritsyn said that the bank began issuing weekly military reviews.
“War is a new challenge, we are no strangers to them, since there was a coronavirus two years ago. But the current (challenge) is much more difficult,” he stressed.
Pecheritsyn until February of this year served as chief economist at Credit Agricole Bank (Kyiv).
As reported, according to the World Bank, which before the war expected the Ukrainian economy to grow by 3.2% this year, it will fall by 45.1%. According to his report from early April, in 2023 the Ukrainian economy is expected to recover by only 2.1%, which is also worse than previous expectations of 3.5%.
The National Bank of Ukraine predicts a decline in the country’s GDP this year by at least a third, refusing to make more detailed estimates. The IMF expects a 35% decline.
The British authorities, in response to Russia’s military aggression against Ukraine, on Tuesday distributed an updated sanctions list with technical changes in relation to 195 Russian individuals and legal entities included in it, there are no new defendants on the list.
According to the document, changes have been made, in particular, to the data of Commander-in-Chief of the Navy Nikolai Evmenov and his deputies, who fell under sanctions in March, as well as to sanctioned members of the Federation Council and the State Duma.
Also, technical changes have been made to the data of the Deputy Ministers of Defense of the Russian Federation Alexander Fomin, Alexei Krivoruchko, Yuri Sadovenko, Yunus-Bek Yevkurov, Timur Ivanov. The data of a number of other Russian military personnel has also been updated.
The general meeting of Ukrainian Premier League (UPL) participants supported the proposal to end the 2021/22 football championship, fixing the standings as of February 24, 2022.
According to a statement on the UPL website, this decision was made due to the fact that the championship cannot be completed as a result of the extension of martial law in Ukraine due to Russian military aggression.
As of February 24, 2022, after 18 rounds, Shakhtar ranked first with 47 points, Dynamo – second with 45 points, Dnipro-1 – third with 40 points, Zorya – fourth with 36 points, Vorskla is fifth with 33 points.
There will be no awards for winners. The corresponding decision was submitted for approval by the Executive Committee of the Ukrainian Football Association.
Also, the general meeting of the UPL participants created a working group that will work on the issues of the current activities of the league and the start of the next season.
The American postal service UPS has suspended its work in Ukraine.
As reported on its website, the decision was made “because of the situation in Ukraine.” Operations have also been halted in Belarus and Russia.
UPS provides mail service in 220 countries around the world.
UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said he had proposed that a UN-Russia-Ukraine contact group be set up to address humanitarian matters in Ukraine.
There is need for safe and effective humanitarian corridors to be honored by everyone and to ensure the evacuation of civilians and the delivery of aid, Guterres said at a press conference, following negotiations with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov.
Guterres said he had therefore proposed the establishment of a UN-Russia-Ukraine humanitarian contact group to search for opportunities and to open safe corridors the efficiency of which would be ensured by local ceasefires.
CONTACT GROUP, HUMANITARIAN MATTERS, UN SECRETARY-GENERAL, UN-RUSSIA-UKRAINE
In order to prevent the disruption of the sowing campaign in Ukraine due to breakdowns of agricultural equipment, the German manufacturer of agricultural machinery Claas has established an automobile channel for the constant supply of spare parts to the country, the company said on its Facebook page on Tuesday.
The company made such a decision on the logistics of spare parts, since air transportation of components to Ukraine is now impossible due to the closed sky due to the war unleashed by Russia.
“Claas, despite the absence of air traffic in Ukraine during this period, has established systemic express deliveries of the necessary spare parts for agricultural machinery. Now a shuttle is running from the central warehouse of Claas spare parts in Hamm (Germany) to Ukraine, bringing urgent orders,” he wrote. manufacturer.
The machine-building company emphasized that due to the military invasion of the aggressor country of the Russian Federation in Ukraine, all logistics processes were disrupted, which led to the impossibility of meeting the agreed terms for the supply of spare parts, but the company is doing everything possible to support its customers in Ukraine.
As reported, in mid-March, Claas said it was shocked by the escalation of Russian military aggression in Ukraine, as a result of which it stopped production in the Russian Federation and evacuated all its Ukrainian employees to a safe place.
Claas manufactures self-propelled grain harvesters, self-propelled forage harvesters, tractors, trailers for harvesting green fodder, telescopic loaders, balers, self-loading trailers. The main production facilities are located in Germany and France.
According to its Russian branch, Claas in Russia owns a harvester plant in Krasnodar, which has been operating since 2003.
Its branch LLC “Claas Ukraine” (Kyiv) has been operating in Ukraine since 1992. During this time, he imported over 8 thousand units of self-propelled equipment. In Ukraine, the company operates through a network of representative offices located in all regions of the country.
