Industrial production in Ukraine in June 2021 increased by 1.1% compared to June 2020, while in May the growth was 5.4%, and in April – 13%, the State Statistics Service has reported.
The agency clarified that, adjusted for the effect of calendar days, the growth of industrial production in the past month was even lower – 0.7%.
The State Statistics Service indicates that compared with May this year, industrial production remained at the same level, and, taking into account the seasonal adjustment, decreased by 0.7%.
The growth in processing industry in June 2021 from June 2020 was 2.5%, in extracting industry and quarrying – 2.5%, while in the supply of electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning a decline was 5.5%.
In general, for the first half of the year, the department also recorded a slowdown in the growth of industrial production to 2.1% from 2.2% in the first five months. In particular, in processing industry the rate remained the same – 2.5%, while in the supply of electricity, gas, steam and conditioned air the rate decreased from 2.9% to 1.7%, and in extracting industry and quarrying it rose from 1.2% to 1.4%.
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) expects inflation to rise to 11% in 2021, according to a chart released by the central bank.
According to the forecast of the rate curve, the regulator expects inflation to slow down with a return to the 5% target in the second half of 2022.
It is indicated that with a probability of 30%, the inflation rate by the second half of 2022 will be in the range of 4-7.5%.
Interpipe, a Ukrainian industrial company, in January-June of this year increased payment of taxes and fees to the budgets of all levels and extra-budgetary funds by 10.4% compared to the same period last year, to UAH 1.49 billion, the company’s Facebook page says.
At the same time, it is specified that the favorable situation on the external markets of pipe and railroad products allowed the enterprises of Interpipe to increase production volumes. The demand on the Ukrainian market continues to stagnate.
“Moreover, the main risk in the second half of the year is the uncontrolled export of scrap metal. Already in the summer the company is experiencing a serious shortage of raw materials, which may lead to a decline in production and, accordingly, a decrease in tax payments,” the press release said.
As reported, Interpipe in the first quarter of 2021 increased payment of taxes and fees by 4% compared to the fourth quarter of last year, to UAH 590 million.
In 2020, the company paid UAH 2.54 billion in taxes and fees, reducing payments by 22% due to a drop in demand because of the coronavirus. At the same time, in the first quarter of 2020, the company increased payment of taxes and fees by 3% compared to the same period in 2019, to UAH 803 million. In the first half of 2020, Interpipe reduced payment of taxes and fees by 10%, to UAH 1.35 billion due to the coronavirus pandemic and a decrease in demand for products. For the nine months of 2020, the company paid almost UAH 2 billion in taxes and fees.
In 2019, Interpipe increased tax payment by 50% compared to 2018, to UAH 3.25 billion.
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) has revised its 2021 inflation forecast from 8% (in its April forecast) to 9.6%, and expects that inflation will return to 5% in H2 2022.
“With global prices surging and demand recovering further, the NBU has revised its 2021 inflation forecast from 8% to 9.6%. After peaking in the fall of this year, inflation will begin to slow as the new harvest arrives and global energy prices adjust… inflation in H2 2022 will decline to its 5% target and remain there going forward,” the NBU said on its website on Thursday.
Inflation will soon rise to slightly above 10%, but it will weaken at the end of 2021 and return to its 5% ± 1 pp target range in H2 2022.
The rise in inflationary pressure, including its fundamental component, is also driven by the dynamic recovery of the economy, as evidenced by monthly and other high-frequency indicators. By tightening its monetary policy, in particular through raising its key policy rate and rolling back its emergency monetary measures, the NBU will also keep inflation expectations under control and gradually reduce underlying inflationary pressures.
National bank of Ukraine’s official rates as of 22/07/21
Source: National Bank of Ukraine
Official rates of banking metals from national bank as of July 22
One troy ounce=31.10 grams
