The Center for Economic Recovery and the Ukrainian Business and Trade Association (UBTA) in a letter to Prime Minister of Ukraine Denys Shmyhal propose to consider three scenarios for reducing the country’s carbon dioxide emissions by 2030 and, accordingly, adjust the goal of Ukraine’s second Nationally Determined Contribution to the Paris agreement.
“Considering the fact that for the entire period of Ukraine’s independence, the dynamics of GDP and the dynamics of greenhouse gas emissions had an almost direct correlation, business associations expressed concern about Ukraine’s plans with great ambitions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to 35% by 2030 from the 1990 level,” the letter says.
The analytical report prepared by the associations contains three scenarios for reducing CO2 emissions until 2030. As noted, the scenarios are calculated in accordance with the goals of the National Economic Strategy of Ukraine.
According to the baseline scenario, with the volume of investments in decarbonization at the level of EUR12 billion, Ukraine will be able to reduce CO2 emissions to 43% of the 1990 level.
The conservative scenario envisages achieving a more ambitious goal of reducing emissions to 40%. At the same time, investments in decarbonization should increase to EUR27 billion.
In accordance with the optimistic scenario, Ukraine can reduce CO2 emissions to 36% (the target is 35%), provided that it invests EUR50 billion in decarbonization by 2030.
The letter states that at the current level of financing environmental modernization, only the baseline scenario is realistic for Ukraine so far.
Ukraine has registered 623 new cases of COVID-19, as well as 589 recoveries and 20 deaths in the past 24 hours, the Ukrainian Health Ministry said.
“Ukraine recorded 623 new cases of COVID-19 [including 37 children and 12 medical workers] over the past day, July 14, 2021. In the past 24 hours, 387 persons were hospitalized, 20 died, and 589 recovered,” the ministry said on Telegram on Thursday morning.
Since the beginning of the coronavirus pandemic, Ukraine has seen a total of 2.243 million cases of COVID-19, including 2.180 million recoveries and 52,685 deaths.
Over the past day, the majority of cases were registered in Kyiv (177), Odesa region (57), Zhytomyr region (33), Donetsk region (32), and Kyiv region (31).
According to the Health Ministry, a coronavirus vaccine was received by 108,759 people in Ukraine over the past day, July 14, including 61,580 persons who received the first shot of vaccine and 47,179 who completed their vaccination.
“As many as 108,759 persons were vaccinated for COVID-19 over the past day, July 14, 2021. The first shot was received by 61,580 persons, while 47,179 persons completed their vaccination,” the ministry said on Telegram.
“Since the beginning of the vaccination process, 2.476.634 persons have received the vaccine, including 2.476.632 who received their first shot and 1.305.882 who received both doses [including two persons who received their first shot abroad]. A total of 3.782.514 shots have been administered to date,” the ministry said.
RATIO OF FERTILITY AND MORTALITY BY REGION IN JAN-APRIL 2021
The Verkhovna Rada at a session on Thursday supported the resignation of Interior Minister Arsen Avakov.
Some 291 MPs voted for the corresponding decision.
As reported, Avakov on Tuesday submitted a letter of resignation from office.
Avakov headed the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Ukraine since February 27, 2014. For the first time, he was appointed to a post in the government under Arseniy Yatsenyuk (2014-2016). Later, Avakov was a member of the governments under Volodymyr Groysman (2016-2019), Oleksiy Honcharuk (2019-2020) and Denys Shmyhal (2020-2021).
The government has approved the forecast of economic and social growth of Ukraine for the next three years, according to which GDP growth under the baseline scenario is expected at 3.8% in 2022, 4.7% in 2023 and 5% in 2024, the Ministry of Economy reported on the website.
Oxford Economics has improved its forecast for Ukraine’s real GDP growth in 2021 to 4.9%, up from 4% in the February forecast.
The decline in Ukraine’s GDP in January-April 2021 slowed down to 0.2%, according to an estimate by the Ministry of Economy.
The real gross domestic product of Ukraine in the first quarter of 2021 decreased 2.2%, the State Statistics Service reported the updated estimate on Tuesday, while in the middle of May the decline was tentatively assessed at 2%.
The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) has improved its forecast for the economic growth in Ukraine in 2021 from 3% to 3.5%, according to its June forecast.
The negative balance of Ukraine’s foreign trade in goods in January-April 2021 increased by 47.3% compared to January-April 2020, to $ 1.299 billion from $ 882 million, the State Statistics Service has reported.
The negative balance of Ukraine’s foreign trade in goods in January-June 2021 decreased by 8.36%, to $1.25 billion with an increase in exports of almost 30.3%, to $29.97 billion, imports – by 28.4%, to $31.22 billion, according to data from the State Customs Service.
The growth of consumer prices in Ukraine in May 2021 in annual terms accelerated to 9.5% from 8.4% in April.
The state budget in May 2021 had a deficit of UAH 4.6 billion, while the state budget deficit in January-May 2021 amounted to UAH 33.7 billion, according to data from the State Treasury Service of Ukraine.
The total public debt of Ukraine in May 2021 grew by 0.21% in U.S. dollars, to $91.52 billion and decreased by 0.69% in hryvnias, to UAH 2.516 trillion, according to data on the website of the Ministry of Finance, published in Friday.
Industrial production in Ukraine in May 2021 increased by 5.4% compared to May 2020, while in April the growth was 13%, in March – 2.1%, and in February and January there was a decline, respectively by 4.6% and 4%, the State Statistics Service has said.
Prices in the Ukrainian industry in May 2021 increased by 3.6%, while in April – by 1.2%, in March – by 1.6%, in February – by 7.8%, in January – by 5.2%, the State Statistics Service has said.
Ukraine completed the 2020/2021 marketing year (MY, July-June), having exported 48.8 million tonnes of grains and oilseeds, which is 17% less than the volumes predicted a year ago, the Ukrainian Grain Association (UGA) reported on the website.
Prices for construction and assembly work in Ukraine in May 2021 increased by 16.8% compared to May 2020, the State Statistics Service has reported.
The retail trade turnover of Ukraine in May 2021 grew by 22.7% compared to the same month in 2020 in comparable prices, while in April this figure was 34.3%, the State Statistics Service said on Tuesday.
Publisher of “Open4Business”, PhD in Economics, Maksim Urakin
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) plans to gradually abolish the requirement for legal entities and individuals-entrepreneurs to purchase foreign currency only against obligations, in particular, from July 20, it will allow businesses to buy foreign currency within EUR 100,000 (in equivalent) per day without the presence of grounds and obligations and the submission of supporting documents to the bank.
According to the NBU press service on Thursday, the relevant changes were approved by regulator’s board decision No. 80 dated July 13.
“We have decided to cancel this requirement gradually. This will allow us to assess the impact of each such step on liberalization on the state of the market,” the NBU press service said, citing Deputy Governor of the NBU Yuriy Heletiy said.
According to the National Bank, the current easing will not have a significant impact on the functioning of the Ukrainian foreign exchange market, but it will expand the business opportunities for risk and liquidity management.
It is indicated that the next steps towards the complete removal of the requirement for the purchase of foreign exchange against obligations will be carried out after analyzing the situation in the domestic and foreign markets, the state of financial stability, and also subject to a favorable situation in the foreign exchange market.
