Insurance companies that are members of the Motor (Transport) Insurance Bureau of Ukraine (MTIBU) in January-April 2021 increased the collection of insurance payments under the policies of compulsory insurance of land vehicle owners’ civil liability (OSAGO) by 15.67% compared to the same period in 2020, to UAH 2.103 billion, including under electronic contracts in the amount of UAH 1.074 billion, which is 63.29% more than in 2020.
During this period, the companies entered into 2.775 million OSAGO contracts, which is 10.45% more than in the same period in 2020. Out of the total volume of agreements, some 1.28 million were concluded in electronic format, which is 61.06% more than in the first four months of 2020.
According to the data published on the MTIBU website, the total amount of accrued insurance claims under internal insurance agreements in January-April 2021 grew by 32.57%, to UAH 1.177 billion. In particular, UAH 220.439 million was paid using the European road accident reports, which is 42.75% more than in 2020.
The bureau also recorded an increase in the number of settled claims for insurance compensation by 22.47%, to 58,182, including 20,947 with the use of European road accident reports (30% more).
The MTIBU is the only association of insurers that provides compulsory insurance of land vehicle owners’ civil liability for damage caused to third parties. The bureau members are 48 insurance companies.
It is planned to open 16 business centers with a total area of 376,000 square meters in Kyiv in 2021-2022, Managing Partner of CBRE Ukraine Radomyr Tsurkan told Interfax-Ukraine during the forum devoted to current trends in real estate on Wednesday.
“The collapse of the offices that scared everyone at the start of the pandemic did not take place. According to a study conducted by CBRE in 2020, 73% of those surveyed want to return to the office and have a hybrid work format,” Tsurkan said.
As a result, active construction of new projects and entry of new office space into the market is seen. In particular, in the first quarter of 2021, the new supply amounted to 22,000 square meters.
“Now the vacancy rate is about 14%, this is a fairly healthy indicator. The rates have dropped slightly – by 10% compared to 2020 and total $25 per square meters a month,” Tsurkan said.
According to CBRE Ukraine, in 2021, 12 business centers with a total area of 207,000 square meters are being prepared for going live.
In 2022, it is possible to replenish the office real estate market with four facilities with a total area of 169,000 square meters.
Among the trends in the office real estate market, the expert named changes in formats. “Now everyone understands: a large business center must have a coworking space. Another innovation that we will see soon is a mandatory area for conversations, meetings with visitors on the ground floor and/or in the office itself. This is a safety requirement, including epidemiological,” Tsurkan said.
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) has revised its inflation forecast from 7% to 8% in 2021, expecting inflation to return to the 5% target in H1 2022.
“Considering the fast-paced recovery of the global economy and higherinflationary pressures, the NBU revised its inflation forecast from 7% to 8% in 2021, expecting inflation to return to the 5% target in H1 2022 and settle at this level further on,” the NBU said on its website on Thursday.
The central bank said that inflation will peak in Q3 2021. Inflation will start to decelerate in autumn, return to the 5% ± 1 pp target range in H1 2022, and subsequently remain there.
The steep rise in inflation was largely driven by temporary factors, such as growing global prices for food and energy. A revival in the global economy and the effects of smaller harvests continued to push up prices. A low comparison base also played an important role.
Underlyinginflationary pressures increased due to sustained growth in consumer demand, which was, among other things, fueled by higher wages, the NBU said.
Retail turnovers consistently exceeded pre-crisis levels, being 5.6% year-over-year larger in February, the central bank said.
The growth of consumer prices in Ukraine in March 2021 accelerated year-over-year to 8.5% from 7.5% in February, from 6.1% in January and from 5% in December 2020.
According to the State Statistics Service on Friday, in March inflation increased to 1.7%, while in February it was 1%, in January 1.3%.
In addition, the State Statistics Service in March 2021 recorded underlying inflation of 1.6% compared to the previous month and 2.4% from the beginning of the year.
The Ukrainian government expects inflation of 7.3% in 2021, while the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) 7%. At the same time, the NBU said that inflation in the first quarter was higher than its expectations. According to the NBU, a turning point ininflationary dynamics may occur in August or September 2021.
Oxford Economics has improved its forecast for Ukraine’s real GDP growth in 2021 to 4.9%, up from 4% in the February forecast.
As evidenced by the May forecast, which is available to Interfax-Ukraine, the analysts have worsened their expectations for the growth of the Ukrainian economy in 2022 to 3.7% compared to the February forecast being 4.2%, and in 2023 they expect the decline in rates to continue – growth to 2.9%.
Strong growth in industrial production in April, a year after a series of lockdowns, marks a turning point that will see GDP grow by almost 5% this year, and then just over 3.5% in 2022, Oxford Economics said.
At the same time, the average annual hryvnia exchange rate in 2021 is expected at UAH 28.60/$1, in 2022 – UAH 29.30/$1, in 2023 – UAH 29.40/$1, according to Oxford Economics.
The analysts have raised their inflation forecast to 7.2% this year (in the February forecast it was 6.9%), and in the next two years they expect prices to rise by 4.9% and 5.2%, respectively.
The analysts continue to expect the current account to return to a deficit of 1.5% of GDP this year, while in 2020 the current account surplus reached 4% of GDP. According to their estimates, in 2022 and 2023 this indicator will remain in deficit and will amount to 2% and 1.7%, respectively.
Private investment is projected to recover cautiously, so the recovery will be more dependent on household and government spending. However, rising demand will push companies to further expand their production capacity from 2022.
Oxford Economics expects the budget deficit this year to be 4.6%, and in 2022 and 2023 it will decrease to 3.2% and 3.4%, respectively.
At the same time, the analysts predict a reduction in the ratio between public debt and GDP from 59.2% in 2020 to 56% in 2021, as well as to 52.4% and 49.7% in the next two years.
Oxford Economics expects Ukraine to be able to unlock the IMF program in the third quarter of 2021. At the same time, political risks remain high, according to the forecast.
On June, 5-6 2021 in the «Kyivan Rus Park» the Open horseback archery championship of Ukraine «Kyivan Rus» for the Cup of prince Volodymyr will take place. Also in program: demonstrative performances of ancient martial arts, shooting from the Trebuchet, horse riding and traditional ancient Slavic amusements.
The event is held in accordance with the requirements of the quarantine regime.
Ancient Kyiv opens at 10:00. The program starts at 14:00.
* The event program is subject to change.
The ticket price: a full adult ticket – 250 UAH, for pensioners and students – 150 UAH, for schoolchildren – 100 UAH, for preschool children – for free.
Ancient Kyiv in the «Kyivan Rus Park» is located in Kyiv region, Obukhiv district, the vill. Kopachiv.
Details on the website www.parkkyivrus.com
The Interfax subscribers can save money with the “openbusiness-20” promo code for a 20%-discount for a full price adult ticket to the Principality of Kyivan Rus:
– by previous order by tel.: +38 044 461-99-37, +38 050 385-20-35
– or at the cash desk at the entrance to the «Kyivan Rus Park».
