Egg production falls by 13.7%, meat by 6.2% in Jan-March – statistics
Sales of meat for slaughter (in live weight) in Ukraine in January-March 2021 decreased 6.2% compared to January-March 2020, to 799,600 tonnes, milk production fell by 4.9%, to 1.75 million tonnes, eggs – by 13.7%, to 3.24 billion pieces, the State Statistics Service has reported. According to the authority, as of April 1, the poultry stock in Ukraine declined compared to April 1, 2020 by 4.9%, to 190.7 million heads, cattle by 6.4% – to 3.13 million heads (including the number of cows that decreased 5.7%, to 1.67 million heads), sheep and goats fell by 5.2%, to 1.32 million heads, and the number of pigs increased 3.7%, to 5.99 million heads.
According to the State Statistics Service, the sale of poultry for slaughter by agricultural enterprises in the first quarter of this year did not change compared to the first quarter of 2020 and amounted to 158 million heads, the sale of pigs grew by 7.0%, to 1.21 million heads, cattle decreased 19.3%, to 76,500 heads, sheep decreased 29.1%, to 11,100 heads. During the same period, agricultural enterprises sold 21.3% fewer eggs – 1.86 billion pieces.
The State Statistics Service said that the production of eggs in January-March 2021 significantly decreased compared to January-March 2020 in Ivano-Frankivsk region, to 60.3 million pieces (a fall of 49.5%), Mykolaiv to 30.8 million pieces (a fall of 47.1%) and Kharkiv to 100.2 million pieces (a fall of 40.3%), but increased significantly in Cherkasy region to 193.6 million pieces (a rise of 29%)
According to the authority, milk production for the first quarter of 2021 decreased most of all in Rivne region – to 59,400 tonnes (a fall of 14.7%), Odessa region to 45,100 tonnes (a fall of 11.7%), Mykolaiv region to 43,300 tonnes (a fall of 11.4%), but increased in Ternopil region to 75,200 tonnes (a rise of 6.8%) and Khmelnytsky region to 131,100 tonnes (a rise of 3.9%).
Director of the State Employment Center Yulia Zhovtiak reported that six unemployed apply for one vacant job in Ukraine.
“As of April 7, 2021, the number of unemployed registered in the State Employment Service was 429,000 people […] As of April 1, the number of current vacancies in our database was 77,000. Thus, the imbalance between the demand and supply of labor remains significant. On average, six unemployed people apply for one vacant job in Ukraine (as of April 1, 2020 – five people),” Zhovtiak said in an interview with Fakty.
She reported that, according to the statistics of the employment service, the biggest discrepancy between the demand for labor and its supply in terms of professional qualifications was observed among employees and managers – 17 people applied for one vacancy, among technical employees there were nine applicants, as well as among trade and service workers.
She said that the areas of hotel and restaurant business, food and entertainment are most affected by the quarantine. In this connection, waiters, bartenders, cooks, baristas and maids face difficulties in finding a job.
The Ministry for Development of Economy, Trade and Agriculture of Ukraine has proposed that a zero quota is set for the export of sunflower seeds from May 15 through September 30, 2021.
The draft resolution has been posted on the ministry’s website.
In an explanatory note to the document, the ministry said that the introduction of a temporary licensing regime and quotas for the export of sunflower seeds at 0 tonnes will stabilize prices for this product in the domestic market.
The Ukrainian Agrarian Confederation and the working committee of China’s Association of Small and Medium-sized Enterprises signed a memorandum of cooperation for the development of bilateral cooperation in the agricultural sector, the Ukrainian Grain Association (UGA) reported on its website on Tuesday, which also joined the signing of this document.
“Today, in the current grain season, Ukraine has exported to China about 10 million tonnes of grain, potentially could increase the export rate by 2-3 times over time. The bulk of grain exports to China accounts for corn and barley. And it is necessary to sign the appropriate interstate phytosanitary protocols to open the Chinese market for Ukrainian wheat, sorghum, peas and other crops,” the press service said, citing President of the Ukrainian Grain Association Mykola Horbachev.
According to the association, the parties will jointly create a Chinese-Ukrainian Council for International Cooperation in Agriculture, in particular for the development of modern agricultural trade and industrial park projects.
Analysts at Morgan Stanley suggest using the recent drop in the value of Ukraine’s Value Recovery Instruments (VRI, quotes as of Tuesday evening totaled 102.4%), especially if the price drops below 100%, to buy these instruments, since their fair value is significantly higher and is about 145%, according to the bank’s report issued on April 19.
Its authors said that the second quarter of this year will bring the first payment on these securities and may show double-digit economic growth rates.
According to the analysts at Morgan Stanley, depending on the results of economic growth in 2021 and 2022, there is a significant, up to 30 percentage points, growth potential for the price of VRI in Ukraine.
According to the report, Ukrainian eurobonds have also become more attractive in recent weeks, although geopolitical uncertainty does not yet allow taking a clear position on them and such a situation, as the history of recent years shows, may continue, and spreads may even double. According to the analysts, from the entire spectrum of Ukraine’s eurobonds, dollar-denominated securities with maturity in September 2024 and 2025 look preferable, as well as in euros with maturity in 2026 due to the increased spread compared to dollar-denominated bonds.
The analysts add that government domestic loan bonds now do not look as attractive as eurobonds, their real profitability is not high, and one should expect their cheaper valuation.
Last week, in its lending strategy for Ukraine, Morgan Stanley, explaining its cautious stance on the country’s eurobonds, also pointed to the slow progress of reforms and the delay in the IMF tranche, COVID-19, as well as overall risks in emerging markets. At the same time, the analysts noted better-than-expected results for 2020 and a favorable macroeconomic background for 2021 with a slight current account deficit. In their opinion, Ukraine will receive one tranche from the IMF this year – at the beginning of the second half of the year, but there is a risk of a worsening of the situation, which could lead to the fact that both sides will eventually turn to a new program late 2021 or early 2022.
VRI were issued as part of the restructuring of the state debt of Ukraine in 2015 instead of eurobonds for a nominal amount of $3.2 billion (20% of the restructuring volume) and are not part of the country’s public debt. Payments under VRI will be made annually in monetary form in U.S. dollars, depending on the dynamics of real GDP growth in Ukraine in 2019-2038, but in two calendar years – that is, between 2021 and 2040.
If GDP growth for the year is below 3% or real GDP is less than $125.4 billion, then there will be no payments on securities. If the growth of real GDP is from 3% to 4%, the payment on securities will be 15% of the excess of the GDP indicator over 3%, and if it is above 4%, then another 40% of the excess of the GDP indicator over 4%. In addition, from 2021 to 2025, payments are capped at 1% of GDP. The absence of any restrictions on payments after 2025 in the case of rapid GDP growth has been criticized by individual politicians and experts within the country.
Ukraine in the middle of August 2020 announced the completion of the buyout of about 11% of its VRI on the open market to reduce payments on them in the future. Roughly payments on VRI in 2021 before their partial redemption are estimated at $40 million, funds for them have already been provided in the state budget.
Official rates of banking metals from national bank as of April 21
One troy ounce=31.10 grams
