The International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects Ukraine’s current account deficit to widen from 5.4% of GDP in 2023 to 8.1% and 14.3% of GDP in 2024 and 2025, respectively, according to the updated World Economic Outlook (WEO) released on Tuesday.
Earlier, in June of this year, the Fund estimated the current account deficit next year at 5.8% of GDP, and in 2026 – at 6.9% of GDP.
The IMF attributes the widening of the current account deficit to the persistent need for imports during the war, the impact of labor shortages on exports, and a decrease in grant funding. In the Fund’s view, these negative factors will outweigh the favorable impact of improved shipping routes, private remittances, and debt restructuring.
In the materials published after the fifth review of the EFF Extended Fund Facility program, it is noted that the current account deficit in the first half of 2024 increased to $8.6 billion compared to $1.8 billion in the first half of last year. The IMF cited a decline in grants from partners as the main reason.
Meanwhile, the trade balance in goods deteriorated by 8% yoy as high imports from the defense and energy sectors offset exports (especially of agricultural products and iron ore). The balance of services, on the other hand, improved with the end of the border blockades and a reduction in cash withdrawals by Ukrainians abroad.
The IMF predicts that after falling by 15.4% in 2023, exports will grow by 15.7% in 2024 and by another 6.2% in 2025. At the same time, imports, which grew by 21.5% in 2023, will increase by another 14.4% this year and by 7% next year.
According to the Fund’s estimates, the growth of foreign direct investment this year will slow to 2% of GDP from 2.6% of GDP last year, and in 2025 it will only slightly accelerate to 2.1% of GDP.
At the same time, thanks to the continued significant external financial support, the IMF forecasts that the country’s reserves will grow from $40.5 billion last year to $42.6 billion this year and $44.9 billion in 2025.
Ukraine’s largest one dollar store chain Aurora paid more than UAH 4.5 billion in taxes and fees in January-September 2024, including more than UAH 455 million in personal income tax (PIT) to local community budgets, said Taras Panasenko, CEO of the chain.
According to him, the company is the largest taxpayer in the Poltava territorial community over the three quarters of this year, with revenues amounting to UAH 139.9 million.
Of the total taxes paid, UAH 1.37 billion was customs duties, UAH 1.36 billion was VAT on sales, UAH 522 million was a single social contribution, UAH 803.1 million was income tax, and UAH 37.9 million was military duty.
“It is equally important to support local manufacturing businesses. More than 500 of Aurora’s partners are Ukrainian manufacturers. They supply more than 47% of the range of Ukrainian products to our store shelves. 80% of them are non-food products,” said Panasenko.
In addition, 25 Ukrainian manufacturers export their products for sale in the Aurora chain in Romania.
According to the entrepreneur, in October, Aurora intends to sell UAH 1 billion worth of goods participating in the National Cashback program.
The head office of the Aurora retail chain is located in Poltava. “Aurora was founded in 2011 by Lev Zhydenko, Taras Panasenko and Lesya Klymenko. As of October 1, 2024, the chain has 1533 stores in Ukraine and 25 in Romania. The company employs about 14 thousand people.
According to Opendatabot, the owner of Vygidna Kupil LLC, which develops the chain, is Aurorityl Investments Limited of Cyprus, and its beneficiary is Zhydenko. The Cypriot company also owns Prior Development LLC, Seven A LLC, Promyslova 9 LLC, and Tak LLC.
Ukraine’s exports of agricultural products increased by more than a quarter to 48.9 million tons in January-September 2024 compared to the same period last year, according to the State Customs Service of Ukraine (SCSU).
“During the first nine months of 2024, Ukraine’s agricultural exports increased by more than a quarter, namely by 9.9 million tons. Their value increased by USD 1.4 billion. In total, in 3 quarters of 2024, Ukraine exported 48.9 million tons of agricultural products worth USD 10.5 billion,” the State Customs Service said in a telegram on Wednesday.
It is noted that the main reason for this growth was the resumption of maritime traffic. Due to this, 89% of the total exports of agricultural products were carried out by sea. On land, exporters prefer rail transport, with only 2% being transported by road.
Grain crops remain the key group of exported agricultural products – 42.3 million tons worth $7.1 billion were exported in 9 months. Another significant component of agricultural exports is seeds and oilseeds – 5 million tons worth $2.2 billion.
“The situation with imports is somewhat different. In particular, 80% of all imported agricultural products came to Ukraine by road, about 18% by sea and almost 2% by rail. This is mainly due to imports from European countries, unlike exports, where goods are delivered all over the world,” the State Customs Service said in a statement.
It is reported that in total, Ukraine imported 978.8 thousand tons of agricultural products worth $1.7 billion. Almost half of all imports are edible fruits and nuts – 468 thousand tons, worth $ 563.8 million. In addition, vegetables are significant in terms of the number of imported agricultural products – 194.2 thousand tons ($246.6 million), and oilseeds are worth $346.5 million (50.2 thousand tons).
“Ukraine’s agricultural sector continues to demonstrate steady growth, ensuring stable supply of products to foreign markets and meeting domestic needs through imports. The Solidarity Roads initiative has played an important role in this process, expanding opportunities for agricultural producers by developing alternative logistics routes,” the State Customs Service said.
In January-September 2024, Ukraine exported $1.98 billion worth of agricultural products to Turkey and would like to deepen cooperation in the agro-processing industry, Ukrainian Minister of Agrarian Policy and Food Vitaliy Koval said at a meeting with Turkish Ambassador to Ukraine Mustafa Levent Bilgen in Kyiv on Tuesday.
“Ukraine and Turkey complement each other in the agricultural sector. We need to deepen cooperation between the countries, in particular in the agro-processing industry, and move together to new markets,” the press service of the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food quoted him as saying.
The Minister noted that Turkish agro-processing companies can find new high-quality markets for their business in Ukraine. This will be beneficial for both countries. Also, Ukraine and Turkey can cooperate in the export of cattle and small cattle meat. Turkey’s experience in irrigation is important for Ukraine. Especially after the Kakhovka dam was blown up.
Koval thanked Turkey for its involvement in ensuring food security. In particular, for participating in the humanitarian initiative of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy “Grain From Ukraine”, under which Ukrainian grain is supplied to countries on the African continent.
The Minister of Agrarian Policy invited his Turkish counterpart to discuss further cooperation in agriculture.
For his part, Mustafa Levent Bilgen noted that Turkey appreciates cooperation with Ukraine, particularly in the agricultural sector. However, it understands the importance of the Ukrainian economy and ensuring the world’s food supply through grain exports.
The Turkish Ambassador assured of continued support for Ukraine and expressed readiness to deepen cooperation.
In January-September 2024, Guardian Insurance Company (Kyiv) made insurance claims in the amount of UAH 389.61 million, which is 38.37% more than in the same period in 2023, according to the insurer’s website.
It was specified that the growth was due to a 49.2% increase in Green Card payments.
During the reporting period, the company collected UAH 769.5 million in insurance payments, which is 31.3% less than a year earlier. The main reason for this is a reduction in payments and lower sales of the Green Card. Thus, during the reporting period, 120.8 thousand contracts were concluded for this type of insurance, which is 9.2% less compared to the same period in 2023.
According to the report, motor hull insurance premiums for the first nine months increased by 57.3% to UAH 53.1 million, for third-party liability – from UAH 2.9 million to UAH 15.3 million, for voluntary civil liability insurance of land transport owners – from UAH 7.3 million to UAH 9.3 million (+27%).
The company emphasizes that the priority tasks facing its team this year are: strengthening and expanding positions in the regions and, accordingly, staff training, diversification of the product portfolio with a focus on increasing the share of voluntary insurance.
Guardian Insurance Company is a member of the Presidium of the League of Insurance Organizations of Ukraine. Since January 2020, it has acquired the status of a full member of the MTIBU and has the right to sell Green Card policies.
In October 2020, according to the decision of the general meeting of members of the Nuclear Insurance Pool of Ukraine, Guardian Insurance Company became a member of the pool.
Dynamics of import of goods in Jan-June 2024 by the most important items in relation to the same period of 2023, %
Open4Business.com.ua
