The article collects and analyzes the main macroeconomic indicators of Ukraine. In connection with the entry into force of the Law of Ukraine “On Protection of the Interests of Economic Entities during Martial Law or State of War” the State Statistics Service of Ukraine suspends the publication of statistical information for the period of martial law, as well as for three months from the date of its completion. The exception is the publication of information about the consumer price index, separate information on statistical indicators of 2021 and for the period January-February 2022. The article analyzes open data from the State Statistics Committee, the National Bank and analytical centers.
Maxim Urakin, PhD in Economics, presented an analysis of macroeconomic trends in Ukraine and the world based on official data from the State Statistics Committee of Ukraine, the NBU, the UN, the IMF and the World Bank.
Macroeconomic indicators of Ukraine
Maxim Urakin cited data from the National Bank of Ukraine on the improvement of the financial situation in 2023 compared to 2022.
“Last year was marked by a more favorable macroeconomic environment for the financial industry. GDP growth generally exceeded forecasts and inflation rates declined. Even after the downgrade, the discount rate remains high enough to make hryvnia investments attractive. Thanks to the efforts of the National Bank and market readiness, the transition to a policy of managed flexibility of the hryvnia exchange rate was successful. At the same time, this success was ensured primarily by stable receipts from partners within the framework of macrofinancial assistance and an increase in the share of exports of agricultural products,” Urakin emphasized.
The expert noted that the main risks for the economy remain the duration of the war and instability of international aid.
“In the third quarter of 2023, Ukraine’s GDP growth slowed to 8.2%. The negative balance of foreign trade increased by 3.2 times, which is a worrying signal. Public debt has slightly decreased compared to August figures, but in 2024 it may exceed the country’s GDP for the first time, which poses significant risks to economic stability,” the economist said.
The pace of international aid to Ukraine, in turn, has significantly decreased in the IV quarter of 2023 – I quarter of 2024, which could create significant risks to the country’s economic stability,” the economist said.
I quarter of 2024, which may negatively affect the recovery of the economy in the current year under the conditions of war.
Global Economic Outlook
Maxim Urakin also analyzed the global economy, noting a slowdown in growth to 2.2% in 2024.
“Analyzing the dynamics of global GDP shows that the global economy continues to recover from the pandemic, but geopolitical instability has a restraining effect on this growth. According to Maxim Urakin, it is important to monitor developments and adapt to changing conditions to ensure sustainable economic growth in the future. Ukraine, in this context, needs to focus on strengthening domestic political stability, restoring its economic potential and continuing reforms to improve its post-war prospects and strengthen its position on the global stage,” the expert explained.
According to the expert, the current macroeconomic situation in Ukraine and the world requires further analysis. For Ukraine, the main challenges in the coming years will be the need to rebuild Ukraine after the war and public debt management.
Earlier, the Experts Club analytical center released a video on how the GDP of countries has been changing in recent years, more video analysis is available here.
During a visit to India, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba pointed to positive changes in bilateral relations between Ukraine and India, Interfax-Ukraine reports, citing the Foreign Ministry’s press service.
Kuleba emphasized that India is gradually changing its understanding of Russia’s war against Ukraine and clearly realizes that Ukrainian-Indian relations have a great future.
“If we compare the state of our relations in the first year of the war and now, we can observe important positive changes. New Delhi has seen Ukraine as an important partner,” he emphasized.
The minister emphasized that Ukraine appreciates India’s desire to establish sustainable peace in our country and its comprehensive participation in meetings on the implementation of the Peace Formula of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. According to him, Ukraine is working together with India and other countries to involve them in the Global Peace Summit to be held in Switzerland.
Summarizing, Kuleba named three key tasks for the development of relations between Ukraine and India.
“The number one task is to return the level of cooperation in trade and politics to the pre-war level. The pre-war level means multibillion-dollar trade between our countries, which means, first of all, attracting money to the Ukrainian economy, creating jobs, selling Ukrainian goods in the world; it means promising joint developments in high-tech industries; it means the arrival of Indian companies to the Ukrainian market,” the minister explained.
The second task is to work on new projects and programs that should bring Ukrainian-Indian relations to a new level, he said.
“Task number three is the Peace Formula. India’s further participation in the implementation of the Peace Formula will be an important signal to many countries in the region that are focused on New Delhi, convincing them to join this initiative of President Zelensky,” the minister emphasized.
Kuleba also said that Ukrainian diplomacy is working to organize visits by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to Ukraine and by President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy to India.
Hotel operator Optima (formerly Reikartz) plans to open a new property in Chernivtsi in May 2024.
According to the operator’s press service, the new hotel will be opened under the Optima Collection brand.
The six-story hotel will have 58 rooms.
The Optima Hotels & Resorts chain unites more than 80 hotels in Ukraine, Sweden, Kazakhstan, Georgia and Uzbekistan.
Starting in 2023, Reikartz is rebranding its hotel chain in Ukraine under the new name Optima Hotels & Resorts. The operator operated under the Raziotel (a chain of three-star economy hotels), Vita, Optima (wellness resorts and three-star hotels), as well as Reikartz Collection and Reikartz Hotels & Resorts (three-star-plus and four-star business and resort hotels) brands.
Optima Hotel Management LLC was established in 2008. According to Opendatabot, the company’s shareholders are Volodymyr Kashutin (Lviv, 99.9%) and Andriy Dema (Kyiv, 0.1%). Kashutin is listed as the ultimate beneficiary. At the same time, until 2019, the beneficiaries were Russian citizens Yuriy Vasin, Leonid Lavrentiev and Timur Rodionov.
According to the financial results for 2023, the company’s net profit amounted to UAH 7 million, compared to a loss in 2022. Revenue increased by 40.8% to UAH 445.8 million.
State-owned Oschadbank (Kyiv) has entered into a UAH 26.5 million loan agreement with spice exporter and producer Natur Svit, and provided an UAH 8 million grant under the e-Work program to Sumy Textile Company, the bank’s chairman of the board, Serhiy Naumov, said on Facebook.
He clarified that the loan to Natur-Svit was issued under the state program “Affordable Loans 5-7-9%” and in cooperation with the Export Credit Agency (ECA) as part of the initiative to insure foreign economic contracts.
According to Naumov, the grant to Sumy Textile Company, which produces hosiery, was provided in the area of processing.
The Oschadbank CEO noted that over the past year, the financial institution’s loan portfolio for MSMEs in Sumy region grew by 29% to almost UAH 1 billion, and the bank’s market share in the region was 25% at the beginning of the year.
According to the Clarity Project, Natur Svit (Kyiv) was registered in November 2008, with Andriy Inshyn listed as the ultimate beneficiary. The company’s revenue in 2023 decreased by 10.9% to UAH 220.8 million, while net profit increased by 4.7% to UAH 29.5 million.
According to the Clarity Project, Sumy Textile Company’s revenue in 2023 decreased by 34.9% to UAH 151.1 million, while net profit decreased by 4.6 times to UAH 7.47 million. The company was registered in April 2022 and is owned and operated by Oleksandr Karpov.
According to the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU), as of February 1 this year, Oschadbank ranked second in terms of total assets (UAH 369.56 billion) among 63 banks operating in the country.
Forecast of dynamics of changes in ukrainian GDP in % for 2022-2025 in relation to previous period
Source: Open4Business.com.ua and experts.news
The shareholders of Verkhnodniprovsky Machine-Building Plant JSC (VMZ, Dnipro region) plan to allocate UAH 43.107 million from retained earnings as of the end of 2023 for dividends, according to the agenda of the annual shareholders’ meeting scheduled for April 30.
According to the draft decision of the meeting, it is planned to pay dividends at the rate of UAH 1.61 per share (nominal value UAH 0.35). The remaining UAH 0.114 million is planned to remain undistributed.
The announcement does not contain any data on the company’s financial performance, but according to the Clarity-project resource, VMZ’s net profit in 2023 amounted to UAH 43.107 million, up 59.2% year-on-year, and retained earnings at the beginning of 2024 amounted to UAH 70.13 million.
According to the company’s website, based on the results of 2022, in the period from November 1, 2023, to April 29, 2024, it will pay dividends to shareholders in the amount of UAH 27.024 million (UAH 1.012 per share) out of the net profit of UAH 27.026 million.
According to the National Securities and Stock Market Commission (NSSMC), as of the third quarter of 2023, more than 62.13% of VMZ shares are owned by Viktor Rasporsky, Chairman of the Supervisory Board, and another 31.07% belongs to Andrey Rasporsky.
Verkhnedneprovsky Machine-Building Plant specializes primarily in the development and manufacture of specialized railway rolling stock, non-standard equipment for car building and car repair.
According to Clarity-project, in 2023, VMZ’s net income increased by 45.2% compared to 2022, to UAH 155.12 million.
