This article presents key macroeconomic indicators for Ukraine and the global economy as of the end of June 2025. The analysis is based on current data from the State Statistics Service of Ukraine (SSSU), the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU), the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the World Bank, and leading national statistical agencies (Eurostat, BEA, NBS, ONS, TurkStat, IBGE). Maksim Urakin, Director of Marketing and Development at Interfax-Ukraine, Candidate of Economic Sciences and founder of the Experts Club information and analytical center, presented an overview of current macroeconomic trends.
Macroeconomic indicators of Ukraine
Ukraine ended the first half of 2025 in a state of moderate but fragile stabilization. After a “flat” start to the year and a weak first quarter, which the NBU assessed as a period of subdued activity, in April-June the economy maintained positive momentum primarily due to domestic consumption and sectors that adapted to military logistics. In its April decision, the NBU kept the policy rate at 15.5%, emphasizing the need to support currency stability and reduce inflation expectations; in its July decision, the regulator confirmed this level, which anchored rates for hryvnia instruments.
Inflation slowed significantly: in June, the annual rate fell to 14.3% y/y (from 15.9% in May), reflecting a combination of tighter monetary policy, currency stability, and price adjustments for certain food groups; the monthly rate was +0.8%. This is the first significant “dip” in annual inflation below 15% this year.
Foreign trade remains the main source of imbalances. In January–May, exports of goods amounted to about $16.95 billion, imports to $31.54 billion, and the negative balance deepened to $14.6 billion (+49% y/y). The key drivers of imports were energy, machinery, and chemicals; exports were structurally biased toward food and raw materials.
Against the backdrop of the trade gap, international reserves remained an important buffer. As of July 1, 2025, they reached $45.1 billion (+1.2% in June) thanks to large inflows from partners (in particular, the EU, Canada, and the World Bank), which exceeded FX interventions and debt payments. This is a historically high level for Ukraine and a critical safety margin for the currency market.
“Current growth is supported by consumption and official financing; without the launch of an investment cycle, it will remain low and unsustainable. International reserves are a stabilization tool, not a source of development; the effect will only appear after they are converted into value-added projects. The trade deficit, in turn, is structural in nature: it should be addressed through logistics, energy modernization, and localization of production, not just exchange rate decisions,” said Maksim Urakin.
The debt burden has increased. As of June 30, 2025, the total public and publicly guaranteed debt was estimated at approximately $184.8 billion (equivalent to UAH 7.697 trillion), adding nearly $3.9 billion in a month. External liabilities structurally prevail, which increases dependence on official financing.
International support remained systemic. On June 30, the IMF completed the eighth review of the EFF program and approved further financing (total payments under the program exceeded $10 billion), while confirming Ukraine’s fulfillment of key criteria and continuation of structural reforms.
“The second quarter showed that the economy has learned to operate in a mode of constant shocks — we see the resilience of small and medium-sized businesses, the flexibility of logistics, and the rapid reorientation of exporters. But the fundamentals remain unchanged: the investment cycle has not been launched, and the trade deficit is structural; it will not disappear without a targeted industrial policy and incentives for localizing production. The discount rate of 15.5% is a compromise between the price of money and currency stability; it works as long as official financing enters the country. If we want to get out of “survival mode,” we need long-term money to restore energy, logistics hubs, and high-tech production. Reserves of over $45 billion are not a reason to relax, but a window of opportunity that must be converted into value-added projects, otherwise exchange rate stability will remain expensive and temporary,” Maksim Urakin emphasized:
Global economy
The world moved unevenly in the first half of 2025. After a technical contraction in the first quarter (-0.5% SAAR, -0.1% q/q), the US entered the second quarter with a recovery in demand: by the end of June, there were already signs of easing price pressure on the PCE index (≈2.5% y/y in May) and stabilization of household spending. Later official estimates show a significant rebound in the second quarter, but as of June 30, the key picture was “cold” demand amid high interest rates.
The eurozone showed a contrast: after a strong Q1 (+0.6% q/q), momentum moderated in April–June; preliminary estimates show Q2 added +0.1% q/q. The factors were weak external conditions, a correction in industry, and cautious consumers, despite easing inflation. The UK remained a positive exception among the G7: +0.7% q/q in Q1 and +0.3% q/q in Q2, although inflation accelerated to 3.6% y/y in June, slowing down the pace of monetary policy easing.
China maintained a pace close to its official target: GDP +5.2% y/y in Q2 (after +5.4% in Q1), but inflation remained sluggish — June CPI +0.1% y/y, reflecting weak domestic consumption and pressure from real estate. Exports and industrial production drove growth, but the question of the sustainability of domestic demand remained open.
Turkey grew by 2.0% y/y in Q1; inflation in June fell to ≈35% y/y, demonstrating the effect of protracted disinflation despite high rates and a cool business cycle.
India remained the most dynamic major economy: in Q4 of fiscal year 2024/25, real GDP grew by 7.4% y/y, and by 6.5% for the year as a whole; inflation in June came close to ≈2% y/y (according to MoSPI publications), creating room for cautious policy easing going forward.
Brazil added +1.4% q/q (2.9% y/y) in Q1 on the back of strong agriculture; the IPCA in June was 5.35% y/y (+0.24% m/m), remaining above the central bank’s target and forcing monetary authorities to act cautiously.
“Global growth in the first half of 2025 is a mosaic of different speeds. The US is balancing between tight rates and the desire not to ”overbrake” demand, Europe is slowly emerging from stagnation, China is holding the bar thanks to exports, but domestic demand has not yet recovered. For Ukraine, this means one simple thing: we should not expect external demand to pull us out of the doldrums on its own. We need targeted industrial programs, support for high value-added exports, and a transparent import substitution policy where it makes economic sense. Then, even amid global turbulence, we will be able to turn record reserves and international support into a long investment cycle and a new economic structure,” Maxim Urakhin concluded.
At the end of June 2025, Ukraine’s economy remains in a state of controlled equilibrium: inflation is slowing, reserves are at historic levels, and monetary policy is predictable. At the same time, a deep trade deficit, high debt burden, and weak investment flows remain key risks that require immediate responses — from tax and customs policy to incentives for localizing production and restoring critical infrastructure.
Head of the Economic Monitoring project, Candidate of Economic Sciences Maksim Urakin
Source: https://interfax.com.ua/news/projects/1113998.html
Spanish Foreign Minister José Manuel Albares announced that a new batch of electric generators will be sent in the coming days through the Spanish Agency for International Development Cooperation (AECID) to help Ukraine get through the winter amid a wave of Russian attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure.
“On the eve of a new winter, it is necessary to ensure the stability and operability of the power system. The Spanish Cooperation Agency has planned 70 new generators, which will be sent to Ukraine in the coming days to provide electricity and heating this winter, which is predicted to be harsh,” the minister said during a media briefing ahead of the EU Foreign Affairs Council meeting in Luxembourg on Monday.
Albares noted that he will meet with Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andriy Sybiga on Monday to personally convey information about support for Ukrainians
China’s economy grew by a minimal 4.8% year-on-year in the third quarter of 2025, according to a report by the National Bureau of Statistics. GDP growth slowed from 5.2% in April-June. Analysts also expected growth to slow to 4.8% on average, according to Trading Economics.
China’s GDP growth in July-September was 1.1% compared to the previous three months (with an average forecast of 0.8%). In the second quarter, the figure increased by a downwardly revised 1% quarter-on-quarter.
In January-September, the economy grew by 5.2% year-on-year to 101.5 trillion yuan ($14.24 trillion).
China’s disposable income per capita rose 5.1% to 32,510 yuan in the first nine months, according to the NBS.
At the end of 2024, the Chinese economy grew by 5%, and the same growth is envisaged in the socio-economic development plan for 2025.
British company Pennpetro Energy Plc (PPP) has announced the signing of the main terms for the acquisition of a 100% license for oil and gas exploration in the Limnytskyi area in Ivano-Frankivsk region through the Polish holding company Target, which was recently established for this purpose.
“The license being acquired by the company is a little-explored, large-scale and highly promising project, the development of which is expected to make a significant contribution to strengthening Ukraine’s energy independence and sovereignty,” PPP said in a stock exchange announcement.
The company intends to immediately recommission one of the previously abandoned wells and conduct 3D seismic surveys before starting to drill a second well in the near future, which is expected to have a high probability of success.
The 172 sq km Limnitsky oil and gas field is located in the Carpathian Basin, where more than 100 oil and gas fields have currently been discovered.
“Obtaining the basic terms of the license for the Limnitsky field in Ukraine is a turning point for our business. It adds an extremely promising asset to our growing portfolio and opens up the opportunity to develop this field,” said PPP Chairman Stephen Lunn.
According to him, Pennpetro Energy’s capital requirements associated with this license are minimal, and the company has significant growth potential.
According to NADRA info, a special permit for oil and gas exploration and production in the Limnitskaya area was issued in 2007 to Geoposuk LTD, which remains an active subsoil user after the recent cancellation of the order of the State Service of Geology and Subsoil of Ukraine to revoke the permit.
In April 2023, Derzhgeonadra filed a lawsuit against Geoposuk LTD in the Ivano-Frankivsk District Administrative Court, demanding that the special permit for subsoil use be revoked. The basis for this was that among the ultimate beneficial owners of the company there is allegedly a citizen of the Russian Federation.
In July 2023, the court of first instance upheld the lawsuit, recognizing the permit as invalid, and in February 2024, the Eighth Administrative Court of Appeal left this decision unchanged. In compliance with the court decisions, the State Geological Service issued an order on February 15, 2024, to revoke the permit.
However, on April 30, 2025, the Supreme Court overturned the decisions of the lower courts, recognizing that the revocation had been carried out in violation of the law, as a result of which Gosgeonedra revoked the previous order on May 5, 2025.
Pennpetro Energy Plc is a public company registered in 2016 in England and Wales. The company is engaged in oil and gas exploration and production, focusing on onshore projects in Texas (USA), particularly in Gonzales County, where it owns rights to more than 2,500 acres. Pennpetro has a number of subsidiaries, including Pennpetro USA Corp., Nobel Petroleum LLC, and Pennpetro Greentec UK Limited.
In 2024, PPP reported revenue of approximately £0.5 million with a net loss of £8.9 million.
On October 16, Pennpetro Energy plc announced the appointment of Mauritius Kalugin as executive director and chief operating officer of the company. Until January 31, 2023, he held the position of executive director and chief operating officer of the Naftogaz group.
Insurance company Arsenal Insurance (Kyiv) paid out UAH 1.26 billion to customers in January-September 2025, which is 30% more than in the same period last year, the company reported on its Facebook page. Payments for September amounted to UAH 184 million.
“This is a record monthly amount of payments in the company’s history. This is more than UAH 8 million in insurance payments daily,” the statement said.
The amount of insurance premiums collected for the first nine months of this year amounted to UAH 3.45 billion (which is 58.9% more than for the first nine months of 2024 – UAH 2.174 billion).
Arsenal Insurance is a non-life insurance company with 100% Ukrainian capital. It has been operating since 2005. At the end of 2024, it entered the TOP 6 in terms of gross premiums among non-life insurers in Ukraine.
On the night of October 10–11, the cryptocurrency market experienced its largest one-day crash: approximately $19 billion in positions were liquidated in 24 hours. Bitcoin plummeted from record highs (around $122–126 thousand) to the $104–110 thousand range. Ethereum also lost a significant portion of its growth, falling more than 10% from its peak values.
Altcoins were particularly hard hit, with some falling by 20-30% or more.
The reasons for this collapse are linked to geopolitical shock (Trump’s announcement of 100% tariffs on Chinese technology), a cascade of liquidations in the leveraged sector, and panic among participants.
After the collapse, there has been an attempt at recovery: Bitcoin rose above $114,000 on the wave of a partial return of liquidity. However, the dynamics remain turbulent: resistance and support levels are constantly being tested. The total capitalization of the crypto market has fallen below $3.8 trillion. The decline has affected almost the entire market — most of the top 100 assets are trading in negative territory.
From the analysts’ point of view, the current correction is more controlled than panicked — market participants are taking profits and clearing overbought positions rather than fleeing the asset.
The US Federal Reserve (Fed) has expressed concern about the stability of the financial system and the risks associated with the growth of the stablecoin sector. The G20 Financial Stability Board (FSB) has highlighted “significant gaps” in the regulation of cryptocurrencies, especially in the cross-border aspect. The PYUSD/Paxos/PayPal case, where $300 trillion in tokens were accidentally issued due to a technical error, served as a reminder of how much centralized issuers control the mechanism of creating/destroying balances.
These facts reinforce the argument that market maturity and trust go hand in hand with regulatory development.
Source: https://www.fixygen.ua/news/20251020/obzor-rynka-kriptovalyut-ot-fixygen.html
