Maksim Urakin, Founder of the Experts Club Information and Analytical Center, PhD in Economics, shared his observations on key indicators and risks for the Ukrainian and global economies as of November 2024.
Macroeconomic situation in Ukraine
According to Maksim Urakin, Ukraine’s economy continues to show slow growth.
“According to the National Bank, in October 2024, Ukraine’s GDP grew by 1.3% compared to October last year. This is worse than the September figures, but significantly better than the data for the summer months. However, there are negative trends in agriculture. This year’s harvest was significantly lower than last year’s, which hit the agricultural sector, one of the key drivers of the economy,” said Maksim Urakin.
The expert also pointed to a sharp deterioration in the foreign trade balance.
“The deficit of foreign trade in goods increased by almost 6% over the first nine months, reaching a frightening $20 billion. The main reasons for this were the growth of energy imports and the lack of labor at export-oriented enterprises,” Urakin added.
According to the expert, Ukraine’s national debt is also a cause for great concern.
“As of October 2024, the debt is already 6.4 trillion hryvnias, or about $155 billion. At the same time, international reserves have decreased by more than $2 billion and amount to $36 billion,” Urakin emphasized.
Global economy: challenges and prospects
At the global level, the key risks are associated with the growing debt burden.
“Global public debt already exceeds $100 trillion, which is 93% of global GDP. In the coming years, this figure will continue to grow, which puts additional pressure on the budgets of most countries,” Urakin said.
The economies of developed countries, according to the expert, show heterogeneous dynamics. The United States is showing steady growth, with its GDP increasing by almost 3% in the third quarter. At the same time, the eurozone economy is actually stagnating, and Germany has faced zero dynamics, the economist said.
At the same time, China continues to play a key role in the global economy. “In the third quarter, China’s GDP growth remained at 5%, but the pace slowed due to geopolitical tensions and internal problems, particularly in the construction sector,” said Maksim Urakin.
Looking to the future
Maksim Urakin expressed cautious optimism about the long-term prospects.
“The global economy is facing many challenges, including inflation, geopolitical conflicts and protectionism. However, despite all the difficulties, there are reasons to believe that growth will continue at least within moderate limits,” he concluded.
The expert also called for more active international coordination to overcome economic challenges.
“Stability requires joint efforts, and only through dialogue and cooperation will we be able to minimize risks,” summarized Maksim Urakin.
You can learn more about current trends in the global economy in the video on the Experts Club YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=grE5wjPaItI
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