The Experts Club think tank has analyzed the state of the French economy and provided its forecasts for the whole of 2025. At the beginning of 2025, the French economy is showing signs of slowing down due to internal and external factors, including the escalation of trade disputes with the United States.
Current economic indicators
According to the National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies (INSEE), France’s GDP grew by 0.1% in the first quarter of 2025 compared to the previous quarter, following a 0.1% decline in the fourth quarter of 2024. This modest growth was mainly driven by inventory accumulation in the chemical, pharmaceutical, and agro-industrial sectors, which added 0.5 percentage points to GDP. However, domestic demand remains weak, with consumer spending stagnating and business investment declining by 0.1%. Foreign trade also had a negative impact, reducing growth by 0.4 percentage points due to a 0.7% decline in exports and a 0.4% increase in imports.
Impact of US trade tariffs
The introduction of new tariffs by the administration of US President Donald Trump, including a 25% duty on cars, steel, and aluminum, is putting significant pressure on France’s export-oriented industries. Companies such as Airbus are looking for ways to circumvent these tariffs, for example by delivering aircraft to US airlines via third countries.
The French government has lowered its economic growth forecast for 2025 from 0.9% to 0.7%, citing uncertainty in global trade. The Bank of France has also confirmed this forecast, noting that growth remains positive but is slowing compared to previous years.
Forecast for the end of 2025
Economists expect France’s economic growth to remain weak in the second half of 2025, with a possible improvement in 2026. The main risk factors remain ongoing trade disputes with the US and domestic political uncertainties. However, France is committed to maintaining economic stability through fiscal measures and stimulating domestic demand.
