The prolonged cold spell in Europe is pushing gas prices up. The spot price for “day ahead” delivery on the benchmark European TTF hub closed at $486 per 1,000 cubic meters on Wednesday, adding 11% in just one trading day. This is the highest level since June 2025.
On Thursday, trading opened at $491. At the moment, the price has adjusted to $477.
Air temperatures in Europe in January this year are falling to their lowest levels in the last decade and a half. Overall, January (which is already the coldest winter month) is expected to be three degrees colder than the climatic norm and four degrees colder than last year.
Clear weather is accompanied by low wind speeds, or even calm conditions. This increases the load on the power system, as it reduces the output of wind farms. The reliability of the power system is maintained primarily by underground gas storage facilities, which are the most flexible source and closest to the points of consumption.
The average level of gas reserves in underground storage facilities in Europe fell to 48.4% at the end of the gas day on January 20, according to data from Gas Infrastructure Europe. This is 15 percentage points lower than the average for the last five years. At the moment, European underground gas storage facilities are ahead of the usual rate of consumption by four weeks. Moreover, the GIE observation base knows of examples when such a level (or even much higher – 59%) of reserves was reached only by the end of the withdrawal season and the start of injection.
By the end of 2025, countries in the region had purchased 109 million tons of LNG (142 billion cubic meters in regasified volume), which is 28% more than in 2024. In January 2026, liquefied gas imports could reach 10 million tons, which is 24% higher than a year earlier. And this could be a new record for the European gas industry. Despite high demand, there remains a large unused capacity reserve – on January 20, terminals were operating at 51% of their capacity. There is also a noticeable trend of declining LNG stocks at terminals.
