In the Medium and Long-Term Market section of the UEEX, trading in the resource continued in February and March 2026. A total of 9 companies formed positions for the sale or purchase of natural gas: Ukrnafta, MC Ukrnaftoburinnya, Ukrzaliznytsia, Tepla, JV BNK, etc. The section sold 1.58 mcm of natural gas. Natural gas was sold exclusively for delivery to the GTS in February and March. The prices of the sold items were in the range of UAH 19718-21150 per thousand cubic meters excluding VAT.
On the short-term natural gas market of the UEEX, participants placed bids on the intraday and day-ahead markets. In total, 36 deals were concluded with a total volume of 826 thousand cubic meters.
The gas markets started the week with a decline amid a sharp improvement in temperature forecasts for Europe and the UK by the end of February. In addition to the growth of wind power generation, this should limit the demand for gas in the electricity sector.
Geopolitical risk premiums were optimistic on Wednesday afternoon, when Iran temporarily closed part of the Strait of Hormuz, apparently in response to the increased US military presence in the Arabian Sea. Iranian news agencies reported that parts of the strait were closed for several hours (for the safety of navigation) to allow the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps to conduct military exercises. As a result, gas prices strengthened across the curve in the last session on Thursday, with the Dutch M+1 contract rising by 16% in intraday trade, supported by renewed tensions between the US and Iran, which further increased geopolitical risk and contributed to the rapid conclusion of contracts. The price increase became gradually more muted further down the curve, and the impact largely disappeared starting with contracts for summer 2027. Possible delays in LNG deliveries, the development of trade agreements, and the expansion of the global economy should not be dismissed as factors that contribute to growth in the long run.
Warmer temperatures next week will support stock levels in EU gas storage facilities, which are currently 33% full, compared to the 5-year average of ~49%. The key countries in terms of storage capacity – Germany, France and the Netherlands – are also depleted at 23%, 23.6% and 14.3% respectively, with the Netherlands facing potentially complete depletion by the end of winter.
Future growth in U.S. LNG supplies continues to ease concerns. Golden Pass (US) is close to starting LNG production, having received 300 million cubic feet of gas on Wednesday, February 18; the market is pricing in the possibility of first shipments in early March. Importantly, this is one of the largest export terminals in the US, so every step towards commissioning has a significant impact on expectations of the LNG balance for Europe.
Imports of natural gas from the European direction averaged about 25.3 mcm per day and were unchanged from the previous week. Imports were present from all neighboring European countries. The main imports were from Poland. Exports from the customs warehouse amounted to about 1.3 mcm per day, in the direction of Moldova. Ukraine’s storage facilities contained 9.78 (-2.2%) bcm of natural gas. Withdrawals amounted to about 45 million cubic meters per day.
