In the “Medium- and Long-Term Market” section of the UEB, trading continued for May and June 2026 contracts. In total, eight companies placed offers to buy or sell natural gas: VK Ukrnaftoburinnya, GTS Operator of Ukraine, Ukrtransinvest, and others. During the week, 2,600,000 cubic meters of natural gas were sold in the section. Positions by the Ukrainian GTS Operator were successful. Additionally, heat-generating enterprises, namely Cherkasyteplokomunenergo and the “City Heating Networks” Concern, purchased natural gas on the exchange for the first time to generate electricity. Selling prices ranged from 22,050 to 22,700 UAH/thousand cubic meters excluding VAT, with a downward trend.
On the UEB short-term natural gas market, participants placed bids on the intraday market and the “day-ahead” market. A total of 39 deals were concluded, with a total volume of 2,227 thousand cubic meters.
Last week, European gas prices were affected by conflicting news from the Middle East, while in some markets, M+1 gas contracts experienced significant volatility—reaching 3-week highs and 2-week lows over several consecutive days. Geopolitical turmoil, uncertainty over winter supplies, and growing structural demand mean that conditions could change rapidly.
On Thursday, gas prices fell significantly for most 2026 contracts following news of a potential agreement between the U.S. and Iran to end the conflict and ensure the free flow of maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz: Following the successful passage of the Liberian-flagged LNG carrier Mubaraz through the strait, it appears that other loaded LNG carriers have also passed through.
On Friday morning, DA gas prices continued this trend. This decline reflects sentiment regarding comments from various news outlets confirming Iran’s readiness to negotiate regarding its nuclear program—the main source of disagreement between the parties—which increases the likelihood of resolving the conflict. This breaking news was partially offset by reduced flows from Oseberg in Norway two days before the scheduled start of a maintenance period, which strengthened the gas system on May 9.
Short-term prices demonstrated their ability to react quickly to weather conditions and system imbalances. Even outside of peak winter periods, volatility remains a defining feature of the market. A colder May forecast is driving additional demand, while wind power generation in Europe is running below average. The decline in renewable energy production is tightening the power system and forcing greater reliance on gas-fired power plants.
Hedge funds have increased their net long positions in the European gas market, according to the latest Commitments of Traders report. With little change in short positions, the funds added another 26 TWh of long positions, bringing the total net long position to 288 TWh.
EU gas storage is at 34% capacity, but gas is being injected at a rapid pace—approximately 10% per month. This has calmed the market in the short term and helped shore up prices, despite broader risks.
Natural gas imports from Europe stood at 0.11 (+0.3) million cubic meters per day. Imports came from Poland and Hungary. There were no exports from the customs warehouse. Ukraine’s storage facilities held 10.33 (+1.48%) billion cubic meters of natural gas. There were no withdrawals from UGS facilities; instead, injections were observed—about 31 million cubic meters per day.
In the “Medium and Long-Term Market” section of the UEB, trading continued for February and March 2026. In total, six companies formed positions for the sale or purchase of natural gas: Ukrnafta, VK Ukrnaftoburinnya, SP BNK, Kyivvodokanal, LTK Elektrum, and Energo Zbut Trans. A total of 15.71 million cubic meters of natural gas was sold in this section, which is 10 times more than in the previous week. Natural gas was sold with delivery to the gas transmission system and underground gas storage facilities in February and March. The prices of the positions sold ranged from UAH 18,833 to UAH 20,833 per thousand cubic meters, excluding VAT.
On the short-term natural gas market of the UEB, participants formed bids on the intraday market and the day-ahead market. A total of 29 deals were concluded with a total volume of 1,087 (+26.88%) thousand cubic meters.
Fundamental indicators in Europe remained weak amid mild weather and stable gas supplies. Traditionally, from late March to May, there is a decline in demand for heating and cooling, which often leads to a seasonal decline in prices. This makes spring one of the most attractive periods of the year for concluding forward contracts. Prices may be relatively attractive before the summer heat or unexpected supply disruptions lead to renewed volatility. On Thursday, gas markets were characterized by high volatility in both directions across the curve.
The overall fill rate of EU gas storage facilities fell to 30.19% by February 25. The market expects lower withdrawal rates for the remainder of the winter period.
Natural gas imports from Europe averaged around 25.2 million cubic meters per day and were virtually unchanged from the previous week.
In the Medium and Long-Term Market section of the UEEX, trading in the resource continued in February and March 2026. A total of 9 companies formed positions for the sale or purchase of natural gas: Ukrnafta, MC Ukrnaftoburinnya, Ukrzaliznytsia, Tepla, JV BNK, etc. The section sold 1.58 mcm of natural gas. Natural gas was sold exclusively for delivery to the GTS in February and March. The prices of the sold items were in the range of UAH 19718-21150 per thousand cubic meters excluding VAT.
On the short-term natural gas market of the UEEX, participants placed bids on the intraday and day-ahead markets. In total, 36 deals were concluded with a total volume of 826 thousand cubic meters.
The gas markets started the week with a decline amid a sharp improvement in temperature forecasts for Europe and the UK by the end of February. In addition to the growth of wind power generation, this should limit the demand for gas in the electricity sector.
Geopolitical risk premiums were optimistic on Wednesday afternoon, when Iran temporarily closed part of the Strait of Hormuz, apparently in response to the increased US military presence in the Arabian Sea. Iranian news agencies reported that parts of the strait were closed for several hours (for the safety of navigation) to allow the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps to conduct military exercises. As a result, gas prices strengthened across the curve in the last session on Thursday, with the Dutch M+1 contract rising by 16% in intraday trade, supported by renewed tensions between the US and Iran, which further increased geopolitical risk and contributed to the rapid conclusion of contracts. The price increase became gradually more muted further down the curve, and the impact largely disappeared starting with contracts for summer 2027. Possible delays in LNG deliveries, the development of trade agreements, and the expansion of the global economy should not be dismissed as factors that contribute to growth in the long run.
Warmer temperatures next week will support stock levels in EU gas storage facilities, which are currently 33% full, compared to the 5-year average of ~49%. The key countries in terms of storage capacity – Germany, France and the Netherlands – are also depleted at 23%, 23.6% and 14.3% respectively, with the Netherlands facing potentially complete depletion by the end of winter.
Future growth in U.S. LNG supplies continues to ease concerns. Golden Pass (US) is close to starting LNG production, having received 300 million cubic feet of gas on Wednesday, February 18; the market is pricing in the possibility of first shipments in early March. Importantly, this is one of the largest export terminals in the US, so every step towards commissioning has a significant impact on expectations of the LNG balance for Europe.
Imports of natural gas from the European direction averaged about 25.3 mcm per day and were unchanged from the previous week. Imports were present from all neighboring European countries. The main imports were from Poland. Exports from the customs warehouse amounted to about 1.3 mcm per day, in the direction of Moldova. Ukraine’s storage facilities contained 9.78 (-2.2%) bcm of natural gas. Withdrawals amounted to about 45 million cubic meters per day.
Spot prices for gas in Europe have topped $1350/1,000 cubic meters, their highest since early October, when prices surged to near an implausible $2,000/1,000 cubic meters. On Monday, the price of the closest (January) TTF futures on the ICE Futures exchange reached 116.395 euros per MWh, that is $1,358 per 1,000 cubic meters. In November, day-ahead contracts on the TTF traded at an average of $945, in December, at an average of $1,134/1,000 cubic meters. The average since the start of the year has reached $512.
Experts said that the latest spike in prices could be traced to a Sunday report by the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung regarding the stance of Germany’s new foreign minister, Annalena Baerbock, on the Nord Stream 2 pipeline. The newspaper said that Baerbock, a representative of the Green Party, has always opposed the pipeline, but was compelled within coalition negotiations to accept the Social Democrats’ unwillingness to forgo the pipeline, which has already been completed. However, now that she has assumed the role of foreign minister, she is constantly being reminded about her previous stance.
The current level of gas reserves in European UGS facilities has already reached 62.83% of their maximum capacity as of Sunday morning, which is 17 percentage points below average figures over the past five years.
The European weather forecast for the current week envisages a new warming (much like in the same period of the previous year).
Wind generation in the past week (December 6 through December 12) accounted for 15.6% of the European energy balance after 18.5% in the preceding week (November 29 through December 5).
The price of the nearest (November) futures for TTF on the ICE Futures exchange on Wednesday afternoon reached 161 euros per MWh, or $1,924/1,000 cubic meters, according to exchange data.
Only this morning, the price of November futures topped $1,500/1,000 cubic meters.
All in all, the average value of the day-ahead contract at the TTF hub in the Netherlands, Europe’s main gas platform, was $759/1,000 cubic meters in September.
Europe, with a general shortage of gas supplies (by pipeline and in liquefied form), is being forced to compete for LNG with the premium Asian market.
Gas prices in Europe have recently had had an inextricable impact on Gazprom share prices.
