The total forecast for wheat production in Ukraine for the 2025-2026 marketing year (July-June) is about 21 million tons, of which 10.3 million tons will be food wheat, while the harvest of grade 1-2 grain, which is needed to produce bread-making flour, is forecast at 1.7 million tons, according to Rodion Rybchinsky, chairman of the Ukrainian Millers’ Union.
“We are already seeing growing competition between processors and exporters for high-quality wheat, while farmers, who have the opportunity to store grain for several years, are in no hurry to sell it. This creates risks for price stability and the availability of flour and bakery products for consumers,“ the association’s press service quoted him as saying at the ”Khleb.ua” conference on its Facebook page.
Rybchynsky drew attention to the situation with rye. Domestic production of this crop in Ukraine does not fully cover domestic demand. In 2025/26 MY, flour millers will have to import about 9,000 tons, while in the previous season this figure was 1,600 tons. The expert emphasized that such an increase in imports indicates the formation of a persistent shortage of raw materials.
“The current production structure and behavior of farmers may lead to further increases in flour prices. While the shortage of first- and second-class raw materials already determines the industry’s prospects, the issue of food grain availability poses risks to the country’s food security,” stressed the head of the Ukrainian Millers Association.
