The article summarizes and analyzes the main macroeconomic indicators of Ukraine. In connection with the entry into force of the Law of Ukraine “On Protection of the Interests of Business Entities during Martial Law or a State of War”, the State Statistics Service of Ukraine suspends the publication of statistical information for the period of martial law, as well as for three months after its termination. The exception is the publication of information on the consumer price index, separate information on statistical indicators for 2021 and for the period January-February 2022. The article analyzes open data from the State Statistics Service, the National Bank, and think tanks.
Maksim Urakin, PhD in Economics, founder of the Experts Club think tank, presented an analysis of macroeconomic trends in Ukraine and the world based on official data from the State Statistics Service of Ukraine, the NBU, the UN, the IMF, and the World Bank.
Macroeconomic indicators of Ukraine
Maksim Urakin cited the National Bank of Ukraine’s data on the improvement of the financial situation in 2023 compared to 2022 and the forecast for 2024.
“Optimistic forecasts for international financing, recovery of supply chains, seasonal business revival and growth in domestic demand, as well as slowing inflation, have contributed to positive expectations for economic stabilization in the near future. However, damaged energy infrastructure, rising logistics and labor costs, and a shortage of qualified personnel due to demographic factors remain constraining factors,” Urakin emphasized.
The expert noted that the risks to the economy also include a possible intensification of military operations in the summer and instability of international assistance.
“The baseline scenario for the macroeconomic situation in the country envisages further implementation of prudent monetary and fiscal policies with a focus on maintaining financial stability. Ukraine must consistently fulfill its obligations under cooperation programs with international partners, which will lead to an increase in the public debt to GDP ratio,” the economist said.
Global Economic Outlook
Maksim Urakin also analyzed the global economy, noting a slight improvement in the situation compared to the previous forecast.
“Global economic growth in 2024 may slightly exceed last year’s level, as countries such as India, China and the United States have picked up in recent months. However, the global economic recovery is still constrained by geopolitical conflicts, protectionist policies of major powers and persistent inflation,” the expert explained.
According to the expert, global GDP growth is likely to remain at 2.9% to 3.2% this year and will only slightly accelerate to 3.4% in 2025.
For Ukraine, the main challenges in the coming years will be the need to restore Ukraine after the war and manage the public debt.
