The article summarizes and analyzes the main macroeconomic indicators of Ukraine. In connection with the entry into force of the Law of Ukraine “On Protection of the Interests of Business Entities during Martial Law or a State of War”, the State Statistics Service of Ukraine suspends the publication of statistical information for the period of martial law and for three months after its termination. The exception is the publication of information on the consumer price index, separate information on statistical indicators for 2021 and for the period January-February 2022. The article analyzes open data from the State Statistics Service, the National Bank, and think tanks.
Demographic indicators of Ukraine
According to Ella Libanova, Director of the Ptukha Institute for Demography and Social Studies. Ella Libanova, depopulation is an inevitable scenario for Ukraine. A labor shortage is absolutely inevitable.
According to the estimates she presented at the Regional Economic Forum, as of the beginning of this year, the population in the government-controlled areas was 31.6 million people, and now it has slightly increased.
Libanova pointed out that the population forecast for the beginning of 2033 within the borders of 1991 Ukraine ranges from 26-35 million people.
According to her, the potential for demographic growth has been exhausted, and this is compensated for by migration.According to her, the potential for demographic growth has been exhausted, and this can be compensated for by migration.
Ukraine’s gross domestic product (GDP), after declining by 10.5% in the first quarter of 2023 compared to the first quarter of 2022, started growing in the second and third quarters.
“At the same time, the World Bank forecasts Ukraine’s GDP to grow by 3.5% in 2023 and 4.0% in 2024, which is 1.5 percentage points (p.p.) and 0.5 p.p. higher than the June estimates, respectively,” said Maksim Urakin.
The key risk for our economy remains a longer duration and intensity of the war, as well as a decrease in the volume or loss of rhythm of international assistance, the resumption of a significant electricity shortage due to further destruction of the energy infrastructure and other risks.
Analysis of Ukraine’s foreign trade
Maksim Urakin also drew attention to the factor of the growing negative foreign trade balance, which has been observed since the beginning of the war.
“The negative balance of Ukraine’s foreign trade in goods in January-September 2023 increased by 3.2 times compared to the same period in 2022 – to $19.402 billion from $6.026 billion. This means that the cost of purchasing the goods Ukraine needs is almost $19 billion higher than the income from exporting Ukrainian goods to other countries. “, emphasized Urakin, PhD in Economics.
Ukraine’s financial situation in 2023
According to the expert, the main factors that characterize the state of the Ukrainian economy are public debt, international reserves and inflation.
“According to the calculations made during the preparation of the draft state budget, the projected amount of public debt calculated in national currency will amount to UAH 8,183,862.1 million and will be 104.6% of GDP. The state-guaranteed debt will amount to UAH 476,671.9 million and will be 6.1% of GDP,” said Maksim Urakin.
According to the expert, the main source of funding for Ukraine’s budget is still related to foreign aid.
“Half of the budget is financed through taxes and fees, while the other half is financed through international grants and loans,” he emphasized.
“Ukraine’s international reserves as of October 1, 2023, according to preliminary data, amounted to $39 billion 708.2 million,” the analyst added.
As for inflation, it continues to decline.
“Consumer prices in Ukraine increased by 0.5% in September 2023 after a decline of 1.4% in August and 0.6% in July, according to the State Statistics Service. At the same time, inflation was recorded at 1.9% in September 2022, so in annual terms in September 2023 it decreased to 7.1% from 8.6% in August and 11.3% in July,” Urakin said.
Thus, the economic situation in Ukraine, according to the founder of the Club of Experts, continues to require close monitoring and adaptation of strategies in response to changing conditions.