The article summarizes and analyzes the main macroeconomic indicators of Ukraine. In connection with the entry into force of the Law of Ukraine “On Protection of the Interests of Business Entities during Martial Law or a State of War”, the State Statistics Service of Ukraine suspends the publication of statistical information for the period of martial law, as well as for three months after its termination. The exception is the publication of information on the consumer price index, separate information on statistical indicators for 2021 and for the period January-February 2022. The article analyzes open data from the State Statistics Service, the National Bank, and think tanks.
In the first quarter of 2023, Ukraine’s real GDP fell by 10.5% compared to the first quarter of 2022, after falling by 31.4% in the fourth quarter, 30.6% in the third quarter, 36.9% in the second quarter, and 14.9% in the first quarter of last year.
Overall, analysts expect modest GDP growth in Ukraine in 2023. Thus, the World Bank slightly downgraded its forecast for Ukraine’s gross domestic product growth in 2023 to 2% from 3.3%, which it predicted in January 2023. Raiffeisen Bank maintained its forecast of 1.8% growth in Ukraine’s gross domestic product for 2023.
Maksym Urakin, founder of the Kyiv-based think tank Club of Experts, drew attention to key macroeconomic indicators. “Ukraine’s macroeconomic indicators have stabilized, and international reserves due to borrowings are breaking records, but Ukraine’s negative foreign trade balance is having a negative impact on the economy,” said Maksim Urakin.
Inflation in Ukraine will decline to 15.5% in 2023, and real incomes will increase by 1%, according to the updated improved forecast released by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) following the first review of the EFF Extended Fund Facility program.
Ukraine’s total public debt grew by 3.6% and reached a new historical high: in dollar terms, by $4.37 billion to $124.28 billion, and in hryvnia terms, by UAH 159.9 billion to UAH 4 trillion 544.9 billion, according to the Ministry of Finance website.
At the same time, Ukraine’s international reserves as of June 1, 2023, according to preliminary data, amounted to $37 billion 311.3 million, up 4% or $1.358 billion in May, and have updated an 11-year high, the National Bank reported.
Consumer price growth in Ukraine in May 2023 accelerated to 0.5% from 0.2% in April after slowing from 1.5% in March, 0.7% in February and 0.8% in January.
In January-April 2023, Ukraine reduced electricity production by 19.4% (by 8.8 billion kWh) compared to the same period in 2022, to 36.5 billion kWh.
CLUB OF EXPERTS, MACROECONOMICS, URAKIN
