The fall in real gross domestic product (GDP) of Ukraine in 2022 is estimated at 30.4% [±2%], which is better than preliminary forecasts, the Economy Ministry said. After falling by about 30% in 2022, the Ukrainian economy may lose from zero to 5% this year if the hot phase of the war continues until the third quarter, but next year its growth will exceed 10%, founder and head of Dragon Capital investment company Tomas Fiala gave such a macro forecast.
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) will worsen the forecast estimate of real GDP growth in Ukraine in 2023 from 4% to 1-3.3%, while inflation by the end of the year will slow down growth to 19-21%, bankers polled by Interfax-Ukraine believe.
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) has downgraded its forecast for the growth of the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) in 2023 to 0.3% from 4% in the previous forecast, which is largely due to the extension of the base scenario with a full-scale war for another six months – until the beginning of 2024.
The Ministry of Economy confirms the forecast for the growth of the Ukrainian economy in 2023 by 3.2%, despite the worsening of its forecast by the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) from 4% to 0.3% this week, First Deputy Minister Denys Kudin has said.
The negative balance of Ukraine’s foreign trade in goods in January-November 2022 grew 2.3-fold compared to the same period in 2021, to $8.524 billion from $3.635 billion, the State Statistics Service reported.
Inflation in Ukraine accelerated to 27.5% in December, but remained below the October forecast of the National Bank (30%), according to the macroeconomic and monetary review published by the NBU.
Consumer price growth in Ukraine in December 2022 remained at the level of November – 0.7% compared to 2.5% in October, 1.9% in September and 1.1% in August, returning to July level, the State Statistics Service of Ukraine reported.
State budget expenditures to support the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the form of the purchase of military equipment, weapons, ammunition, defense products, and personal protective equipment in December amounted to UAH 38 billion (11.5% of all expenditures) compared to 18.4 UAH billion in November (7%) and UAH 35.9 billion in October (16.1%).
According to the forecast of the Ministry of Economy, the grain harvest in Ukraine in 2023 will be about 49.5 million tonnes, which is better than the estimate of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) at 46 million tonnes, First Deputy Minister Denys Kudin told.
PhD in Economics, Maksim Urakin
