The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) has improved its forecast for the electricity deficit in Ukraine this year from 4% to 3% and next year from 2% to 1% thanks to rapid repairs and the development of distributed generation.
“Quick repairs to maneuverable generation and energy infrastructure, the development of distributed electricity generation and renewable energy capacity, against the backdrop of sustained electricity imports, allow us to improve the estimate of the electricity deficit over the forecast horizon,” the NBU stated in its Inflation Report for April 2025, comparing it with the January report.
According to Nabank, the deficit will almost disappear in 2027 (1%).
Thus, the report states that the impact of energy supply constraints on real GDP growth will decrease, and annual electricity imports in 2025-2027 will amount to about $0.5 billion.
As reported, at the end of 2024, the Ministry of Energy reported that the total capacity of distributed gas generation facilities connected in Ukraine last year amounted to 967 MW, of which 835 MW were commissioned in 2024.
