The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) has raised the country’s international reserves forecast for the end of 2023 to $34.5 billion from $27 billion in its January forecast.
“In total, receipts from international partners may exceed $42 billion this year. Receipts from partners, in particular, will boost international reserves to more than $35 billion at the end of this year,” NBU Governor Andriy Pyshny said Thursday, presenting the updated macro forecast.
The National Bank expects reserves to reach $36.1 billion at the end of 2024, while previously it had expected $31 billion.
According to the updated forecast, the estimate of the current account deficit is improved this year to $13.5 billion from $20.4 billion, but worsened next year to $10.6 billion from $8.4 billion, while last year its surplus was $8 billion.
The NBU points out that the persistence of a significant current account deficit in 2023, in particular due to increased imports amid a gradual recovery of domestic demand, the costs of a significant number of forced Ukrainian migrants abroad and still restrained exports as a result of declining harvests and limited logistics routes. At the same time, the arrival of international aid will offset these factors, the regulator added.
“The net inflow of currency to Ukraine remains due to significant volumes of international aid. This will strengthen the NBU’s ability to further maintain exchange rate stability and gradually ease currency restrictions,” the NBU noted.
